MAG5035 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Models seem to be in pretty solid agreement for this potential event currently. The column should be marginally cold enough to maintain all snow to the surface, but surface temps, precip rates, and time of the day will undoubtedly dictate how much actual accumulation is realized on the ground. Looking like generally a 2-6" event to me, ranging more towards 2" being in metro LSV areas (and farther NW parts of PA) to perhaps up to 6" in some of the south central ridge tops. Earlier timing or some heavy rates could help the accumulations in the lower areas of the LSV. Can't say i'm surprised we're looking at this possible late season snowfall, and it might not be the last one either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 and it might not be the last one either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I would like MDT to get at least 3 inches out of this storm in order to reach 40 inches for the season. All models today brought 3-6 inches, so I think there is a good chance, but we will have to see how much of a factor ratios and sun angle will be in limiting accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 lol I'm hoping for a 2010-11 like cut off with whatever storms pop up. If we can keep light enough precip. at least it won't lay and set back spring sports even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Oh my, way too much of this wishing winter away. Early spring isn't good for the balance of things. You have to have a wider lens and be able to see the whole picture. Let's see...invasive species can run amok as long as we have an early spring and the athletic fields are ready. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Oh my, way too much of this wishing winter away. Early spring isn't good for the balance of things. You have to have a wider lens and be able to see the whole picture. Let's see...invasive species can run amok as long as we have an early spring and the athletic fields are ready. Huh? A lot of people on this forum, and in the world, wish and wish and wish for one big snow storm in January and then after that they are hoping for widespread 50s and 60s into March. While as the same time, you have people like Al Gore and NOAA claiming this has been the "warmest" winter on record and everyone, including the same people hoping for warm weather, running around acting like its the end of the world. If everyone is hoping for global warming why are we trying to raise taxes in order for it to not happen? Please, lets enjoy the weather.. its the only weather we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Anotherman, I'm hoping LSV gets crushed since it's the consensus you guys want it, I'm just hoping it brushes IPT lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Models seem to be in pretty solid agreement for this potential event currently. The column should be marginally cold enough to maintain all snow to the surface, but surface temps, precip rates, and time of the day will undoubtedly dictate how much actual accumulation is realized on the ground. Looking like generally a 2-6" event to me, ranging more towards 2" being in metro LSV areas (and farther NW parts of PA) to perhaps up to 6" in some of the south central ridge tops. Earlier timing or some heavy rates could help the accumulations in the lower areas of the LSV. Can't say i'm surprised we're looking at this possible late season snowfall, and it might not be the last one either. I agree. The first day of spring is Friday but cold and snow will still be in the forecast for weeks to come. If you want 70s and 80s now you better go to Florida. Hoping we're on the high side of the 3-6" for Altoona area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Unfortunately, there's still more than 24 hours to go until the first flakes. That means many more updates to the snowfall map. I would say that I don't think it's likely that the 4-6" range will be raised any further. In fact, I am expecting that zone to probably go lower now (not a scientific observation but rather just intuition). For once I am in the max range of accumulations>> 4-6". It feels weird to be inside that zone, at least until I wake up in the morning. If Saturday's temperature forecasts are correct, 50 degrees with increasingly stronger sun should melt away a significant portion of whatever we get. So, my advice to the 'haters' would be...don't look out the window from Friday morning until Saturday afternoon and you'll barely even know we had a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 0z EURO... 33: Precip entering the western half of the state, SFC 32 LSV 36: 0.1-0.25 western half, 0.01-0.1 everyone else, 32 along PA/MD border 39: 0.1-0.25 for many except myself really, 0.25+ entering south-central, 32 SW of AOO then east through LSV 42: 0.1-0.25 for all, 0.25+ blob in south-central, 32 AOO-MDT, slight dip SE from there 45: 0.25+ through Voyager and myself and down into the LSV, moreso east of the river, 0.1-0.25 everyone else, 32 NE of UNV-AOO-MDT before dipping SE 48: 0.1-0.25 hanging on in eastern half, 32 dipping back out of UNV, still north of AOO+MDT 51: Some leftover 0.01-0.1 in eastern half 54: Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Oh my, way too much of this wishing winter away. Early spring isn't good for the balance of things. You have to have a wider lens and be able to see the whole picture. Let's see...invasive species can run amok as long as we have an early spring and the athletic fields are ready. Huh? I'm not looking for 70's and 80's and an early green-up and leaf out, but we've had wintry conditions off and on since November, and full bore since January. Is it too much to ask for normal temps at this point, which are running around 50 for many folks by now? The iceberg that was my snowpack has finally melted off and I can see the grass and the farm fields again...finally. Winter has run it's course, and it's been a good one for many. It's time for the seasons to change. I'll be willing to bet that most here WOULD complain if we were to hold onto the 80's and 90's into late September and early October, especially after a long and particularly hot and humid summer, so why is it so bad when folks like myself want spring to spring when it's supposed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Looks like central PA will be in a nice region of isentropic ascent Friday morning as a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave propagates through the region. There will be a decent amount of moisture present with precipitable water values at this time around 0.5-0.6 in; slightly above climatological values for this time of year. Given that it is mid-March, that equates to more moisture than the same anomalies in January. The 06z GFS and the 00z Euro also hint at the possibility of some enhanced banded precipitation (especially for eastern areas of PA) with weak 700 mb and 850 mb frontogenesis in the northeastern part of the state. There's also some upper level support for these features; the 250 mb winds show a coupling of jet streaks, with PA in the left exit region of a strengthening southern stream jet and the right entrance region of a weakening northern stream jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Wow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This might end up the nicest region-wide snow of the season, wouldn't that be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 This might end up the nicest region-wide snow of the season, wouldn't that be funny. i was thinking the same thing......I think we have to give a shout out to Blizzard, didn't he call this last week?? to me it looks like more qbf .57 compared to yesterday i think was like .44, but it does look a tad warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm not looking for 70's and 80's and an early green-up and leaf out, but we've had wintry conditions off and on since November, and full bore since January. Is it too much to ask for normal temps at this point, which are running around 50 for many folks by now? The iceberg that was my snowpack has finally melted off and I can see the grass and the farm fields again...finally. Winter has run it's course, and it's been a good one for many. It's time for the seasons to change. I'll be willing to bet that most here WOULD complain if we were to hold onto the 80's and 90's into late September and early October, especially after a long and particularly hot and humid summer, so why is it so bad when folks like myself want spring to spring when it's supposed to? Why... because you can get MORE than your fill of 80's and 90's for a solid 4 months, and when you don't get them your still in your beloved warmth. Add 70's into the mix and you get 6 months SOLID. Since I guess you don't realize that it typically has to be below freezing to snow (and stick for us diehards), the amount of days where it stays below 32 can be counted by lining up a few of us and taking off our gloves and socks to count. And 40's doesnt mean d!ck to a snow lover....wasted "cold". This is a weatherboard and we all have our likes of different seasons. No problem with that (truth be told i LOVE the true 4 seasons we enjoy in the northeast), but when some just come in here to poo poo any talk of snow, you are in effect....pissing in the cheerios of those of us who are trying to have "our time", Not sure why you don't get that. Look at your post style and don't be surprised when some get testy. Like I've said many times, you'll get your turn and many of us pretty much go away to let you have it. I was taught that if i didnt have anything nice to say.....sometimes its better to say nothing....just sayin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 my thoughts on this seem to be almost the same as everyone else... Low dew points today will allow for temps to fall just enough while snowing, but how long does it take for those flakes to reach the surface? That will huge imo for the Harrisburg and east region. If we can get accumulating snow early enough we may at least see decent totals on colder surfaces (grass/etc) despite surface temperatures trying to reach the mid 30s during the day tomorrow. Just because surface temp is 34-35 it does not mean that it will not accumulate. If the accumulations start too late, we may have the kind of wet snow that when it melts at the surface initially the wetter ground makes it tough to get going accumulation wise and we lose out on good totals. I am thinking the second scenario is more likely, just have seen it too many times in March in the past, where overcoming the dry air with marginal temperatures ruins what could have been a nice event. With temperatures climbing nicely today before the cloud cover moves in, I just don't see temperatures here falling below freezing until we wet bulb at the surface which could occur too late. A winter weather advisory is fair for here, but I can see how this busts in LSV. I can see this playing out almost similar to the storm right before Thanksgiving where Harrisburg sees about a coating to 2" with a nice period of snowfall that will melt all too quickly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 my thoughts on this seem to be almost the same as everyone else... Low dew points today will allow for temps to fall just enough while snowing, but how long does it take for those flakes to reach the surface? That will huge imo for the Harrisburg and east region. If we can get accumulating snow early enough we may at least see decent totals on colder surfaces (grass/etc) despite surface temperatures trying to reach the mid 30s during the day tomorrow. Just because surface temp is 34-35 it does not mean that it will not accumulate. If the accumulations start too late, we may have the kind of wet snow that when it melts at the surface initially the wetter ground makes it tough to get going accumulation wise and we lose out on good totals. I am thinking the second scenario is more likely, just have seen it too many times in March in the past, where overcoming the dry air with marginal temperatures ruins what could have been a nice event. With temperatures climbing nicely today before the cloud cover moves in, I just don't see temperatures here falling below freezing until we wet bulb at the surface which could occur too late. A winter weather advisory is fair for here, but I can see how this busts in LSV. I can see this playing out almost similar to the storm right before Thanksgiving where Harrisburg sees about a coating to 2" with a nice period of snowfall that will melt all too quickly after. it looks like a little bit of a later start too, which doesnt help matters. I thought if this gets going in the middle of the night that would help us out, but to me it doesnt look that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Dont forget...........the dreaded sun angle. Buggers getting bright. while the maps look nice, i to feel that we may lose a good bit to the sun and the warming surface temps. although my kid isnt playing ball this sping, I wont miss the mad dash to get all of the games in once the fields dry. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 nam at .45 now for KMDT, some of that looks like rain at the end as it warms up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 nam at .45 now for KMDT, some of that looks like rain at the end as it warms upI think 2-4" is a good call for MDT with up to 6" possible in higher elevations. The best lift looks to come in between 6-9am around that area, so it should be able to fall and accumulate readily. After 9 will of course be tougher, but any good rates should overcome enough to slowly accumulate. Roads in the morning will be slushy and will be mostly wet during the late morning/early afternoon period once the rates start to settle back down as we lose the best lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 if any of you want the snow i am to get tomorrow, please come get it. i dont want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Thanks for all the prayers. Today is the first day of trying to get back to normal and were trying our best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 if any of you want the snow i am to get tomorrow, please come get it. i dont want it. Careful now. You don't want to pee in someone's Cheerios now, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 if any of you want the snow i am to get tomorrow, please come get it. i dont want it. you're talking nonsense, who you kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Currently 39/1 at MDT at noon... I'd say a little bit of dry air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 On another note, Looking at the para Euro from last night, it looks like an almost full capture of the northern branch. Will be interesting to see what the Doc says in a bit. While times running out....seeing the 93' maps and somewhat similar look from last night just gives me goosebumps. If its over....its over, but id take a 93' redux any day of the year. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Can we all please stop with the posts complaining about what others post already, whether it is pro-cold or pro-warm? It is honestly getting rather annoying to try and get caught up with posts every few days and it seeming like there is at least one post complaining about something someone else said. There are no rules as to if the thread has to be all about the cold or all about the warmth. We all come from various backgrounds here and I know some come on here just to read and see what forecasts are looking like since their daily jobs are significantly impacted by the weather. After the way we have seen long duration significant cold stretches the past two winters, there is nothing wrong with wanting some warmer days mixed in along with the snowstorms since that is what does happen here around PA nearly every winter. I know on my end the electric bill hasn't been pretty so yea I want an occasional break from the cold too. Sorry but I just felt something needed to be said before we have more people leave or stop posting in this great group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 you're talking nonsense, who you kidding nah, serious. Though, threat looks pretty good even if it doesn't stick much to roads. 2-4" is a good bet along the line. I have a feeling me (83Blizz included) won't change over at all. Just a wet snow from ~5am until after 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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