osfan24 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm not sure why people are so reluctant to go with 20:1 ratios or even higher. I think this easily ends up in the 6-10 inch range. .4 or .5 qpf with those kinds of ratios, perhaps even higher. Didn't we have a storm last year with 30:1 ratios? We could even have higher ratios than 20:1. This isn't the wettest storm, but it's not like you are talking about a couple of tenths of precip. We could be around a half inch of liquid, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow?ref=aymt_homepage_panel Final call for DC proper: 5-8" Start time: Around 3pmEnd time: Around 6amHeaviest: Between 10pm and 4amTemperature: Mid to Upper Teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With how cold it's going to be, I'm pretty sure closure if 6"+ verifies. Cleanup even on interstates is going to be tough to do quickly. Yeah I'm pretty sure everything closes, even 3 inches with temps in the teens is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow is flying in down town RIC and with in minutes we have a dusting on the ground. Going to be a long and snowing night. Good luck to ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I honestly believe 15:1 is a reasonable # ratio wise. I'm not as versed as many in this department but the basic things in place for high ratio snowfall are there. It's not going to be windy either so the bigger dendrites won't get beat up on the way down. Fluff factor should be high with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow?ref=aymt_homepage_panel Final call for DC proper: 5-8" Start time: Around 5pm End time: Around 6am Heaviest: Between 10pm and 4am Temperature: Mid to Upper Teens Looks good but judging by what I'm seeing out here on I-66 u might want to bump that start tile up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow?ref=aymt_homepage_panel Final call for DC proper: 5-8" Start time: Around 5pm End time: Around 6am Heaviest: Between 10pm and 4am Temperature: Mid to Upper Teens 5-8"....I need 1 number for a final call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You have flakes already? Wow. Thats gonna be an extra hour of light snow I wasnt planning on. Sweet! really light, but relieved that it quickly overcame the low dew points. that was concerning me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My low was 0 overnight. Talk about cold surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow in Midlothian. From Raleigh but on our way up to Charlottesville so I'm really excited to post that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries have just started down here in Spotsylvania....currently 17/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe announced he will declare a State of Emergency at 3 p.m. as a serious snowstorm makes its way into the Commonwealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks good but judging by what I'm seeing out here on I-66 u might want to bump that start tile up a little. will do...where are you on 66? edit..I moved up to 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I honestly believe 15:1 is a reasonable # ratio wise. I'm not as verses as many in this department but the basic things in place for high ratio snowfall are there. It's not going to be windy either so the bigger dendrites won't get beat up on the way down. Fluff factor should be high with this one. just looking through the model soundings and such (you can argue, justly [at least IAD and BWI -- DCA was stupid wrong], about the ratios measured on 1/30/10 but at least from a sounding aspect, that day is a good analog for tonight when you plot up each days temp/rh profiles -- was too lazy to go find RUC or other model output from that day to look at omega structure on 1/30/10) -- 15:1 is very reasonable -- wouldn't be surprised to see a bit higher for the N. MD folks -- nobody should be down on this, even if you only see 0.25 liquid it will be one of the most efficient quarter inches we can see around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm glad to see that this is an areawide event from richmond to pa. I still can't believe it's gonna snow with these temps...in mid feb no less. No flake lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My low was 0 overnight. Talk about cold surfaces. same here 13/-3 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries at the home west side of Woodbridge already. As soon as the return was over the house, it began to flurry. Good signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 will do...where are you on 66? Approaching Marshall, it was snowing lightly until here, just stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries at the home west side of Woodbridge already. As soon as the return was over the house, it began to flurry. Good signals. Cold air can't hold no moisture. A balmy 20 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sun trying to poke through the clouds. Walked out on the inlet and that ice is very thick 16/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Very light, fine grain snow in Middletown, VA. amazingly, it's already laid down a dusting. every flake instantly sticking. 16F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow?ref=aymt_homepage_panel Final call for DC proper: 5-8" Start time: Around 5pm End time: Around 6am Heaviest: Between 10pm and 4am Temperature: Mid to Upper Teens I would say 6 to up to 10, I am not sold that we are limited to 0.5 and the 20-1 ratios that I discussed yesterday are still most definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light Snow now....... 16/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 just looking through the model soundings and such (you can argue, justly [at least IAD and BWI -- DCA was stupid wrong], about the ratios measured on 1/30/10 but at least from a sounding aspect, that day is a good analog for tonight when you plot up each days temp/rh profiles -- was too lazy to go find RUC or other model output from that day to look at omega structure on 1/30/10) -- 15:1 is very reasonable -- wouldn't be surprised to see a bit higher for the N. MD folks -- nobody should be down on this, even if you only see 0.25 liquid it will be one of the most efficient quarter inches we can see around these parts. Both the NAM and GFS have a "warm layer" of about -5 or -7C from 800-700mb around 6z when we should be getting our best rates. That's making me a bit cautious on going 15:1. Not sure where the best omega is falling. If it's a little higher, that would be good. The profiles around 0z tonight look ideal for dendrite growth, so we should maximize that lighter precip this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think we are going to have to worry about dry air south of I-70. From what people have been posting, once the returns get overhead the snow seems to be falling right away. The mPING reports are pretty encouraging too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clouds starting to thicken and lower. Temp 17. Go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 starting to snow in Gainesville 17 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 just looking through the model soundings and such (you can argue, justly [at least IAD and BWI -- DCA was stupid wrong], about the ratios measured on 1/30/10 but at least from a sounding aspect, that day is a good analog for tonight when you plot up each days temp/rh profiles -- was too lazy to go find RUC or other model output from that day to look at omega structure on 1/30/10) -- 15:1 is very reasonable -- wouldn't be surprised to see a bit higher for the N. MD folks -- nobody should be down on this, even if you only see 0.25 liquid it will be one of the most efficient quarter inches we can see around these parts. Thanks Chris. I use simpleton analysis and it's usually pretty close. Once I see the column, 700mb rh vv panels, and the type of storm it's kind of easy to "get a feel" for it. We have good temps in the dgz, fairly moisture laden system, deep arctic airmass, and decent lift/fg forcing in the area. It's a really good setup for efficient snowfall. Definitely reminds me of 1/30/10 and st paddy's last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Both the NAM and GFS have a "warm layer" of about -5 or -7C from 800-700mb around 6z when we should be getting our best rates. That's making me a bit cautious on going 15:1. Not sure where the best omega is falling. If it's a little higher, that would be good. The profiles around 0z tonight look ideal for dendrite growth, so we should maximize that lighter precip this evening. Overall 15-1 is a fair guess on my part without getting into the #'s too much. I expect higher ratios for some of early and possibly tail end stuff. In the middle could easily be 10-12:1. I highly doubt any period will feature less than 10:1 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RixeyvilleWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Been lightly snowing for the past 20 minutes. Light dusting on deck and driveway. (NW Culpeper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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