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burgertime

Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

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I just can't see how there is that much snow.  Maybe I will be wrong, but it would have to hit early and very very hard for even 2-4" to fall up there.  The WAA with this will be no joke, as you know.

 

NCEP models snow accumulation grib output takes sleet/freezing rain into account too, so not all snow.

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GFS is a bit colder than the NAM. Still has a NASTY ice storm from LIT-MEM-BNA. North MS and HSV starts as some ZR/IP then QUICKLY goes over to Rain. NE GA* like NE NE GA to The upstate get lit up with ICE. It changes over to Rain in NE GA, but stays all ZR in the upstate. That would be a VERY bad ICE Storm. NC starts as some snow, could be a 1-3" type of snow, then quickly over to IP and or ZR.

Little worried about power here in nega Chris. Sfc temps are cold. Nws mentions in their discussion that Gainesville really doesnt go above freezing. 850s warm but clowns continue to show nega getting a pretty good clip of some kind of winter weather.

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That's crazy how those 2" amounts just hit a wall...any idea why those don't make it into the northern mtns of NC?

Drier air east of mountains? Trajectory into the terrain?

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If the CMC, Euro, and UKMET all agree on the GFS, then I'll be out 99.5% out. Only a microscopic part of me will have hope for a last-second surprise.

Right now I'm at about 95%. This is pretty bad.

You really never know the way the models have been changing so quickly. We are on the edge. Let's see how the temps shake out

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The freezing line at the surface is getting painfully close to RDU. We may just have a rain storm after all.

 

based on what model?  I can't see it being just rain based on current trends.

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The 12z GGEM looks like it keeps N/W of I-85 in NC snow for the duration, mostly.

How's RDU? I imagine we'd get more snow here even though sleet and maybe some ZR will still happen.

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The freezing line at the surface is getting painfully close to RDU. We may just have a rain storm after all.

12z GFS has temp near 25 at hour 48. About the same for the NAM.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

NAM would keep temps below freezing to at least hour 54 but by then most of the precip ends. Then the cold rushes back in...

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How's RDU? I imagine we'd get more snow here even though sleet and maybe some ZR will still happen.

yea, gfs and nam gives us a good band of snow before sleet changeover.  im hoping the precip gets in here earlier so we have as little sleet/frz rain as possible.  gfs was a slight improvement.

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How's RDU? I imagine we'd get more snow here even though sleet and maybe some ZR will still happen.

 

RDU starts as snow (maybe 2" or so) before going to ip.  I haven't looked at any soundings but it looks like it might be zr towards the end.

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How's RDU? I imagine we'd get more snow here even though sleet and maybe some ZR will still happen.

just looked and it looks good for us, snow thru hr 36 to 42 then to mix.

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Delta, Hickory or Lookout, thoughts about CAD areas like AHN west towards KATL? Is that a battle ground area or all RN?

 

ATL is all rain for sure, I cannot speak for AHN I am not as familiar with it to be honest, my hunch is they'd be mainly rain as well though from what I see

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RDU starts as snow (maybe 2" or so) before going to ip.  I haven't looked at any soundings but it looks like it might be zr towards the end.

One thing to note; NC is still within the center of the predominate precipitation swath. We just have to deal with more mixing issues than we thought yesterday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Here is the GFS-13km hi-res snow maps. Remember the 1 degree GFS which is the op GFS in the model center is lower resolution, this map accounts for the terrain/etc better.

Based on this map as well as two meter maps and despite the progged track of the low so much further north than yesterday (now moving E through north central GA....would be unprecedented since at least 1950 for NC to get a major winter storm with that track...so, I'm still not buying it even though it obviously isn't impossible and it doesn't seem to make sense for it to head into the wedge), ATL is still not in the clear, especially the NE burbs. This actually shows light ZR (up to 0.10") in closeby N burbs and as much as ~0.40" in NE Gwinnett, a pretty decent hit. Monday 1PM 2M temperatures are still only up to near 32 F for these areas. That is not exactly a clearcut all clear signal. On the one hand, the warmer trends could still continue and reduce the modeled ZR as we get closer. OTOH, if the trend were to suddenly reverse to a further south track, if the track remained but the modeled 2M temp.'s are being warmed just a couple of degrees too much (not at all uncommon with wedges), or if there is a several degree warm bias in play, then this area is instead very close to getting a major ZR based on the total qpf of 1-1.5". Just a heads up to not dismiss this just yet in those areas.

Any opinions about this area from others?

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yea, gfs and nam gives us a good band of snow before sleet changeover.  im hoping the precip gets in here earlier so we have as little sleet/frz rain as possible.  gfs was a slight improvement.

I'm actually banking on this because in these sort of overrunning (using the term loosely) scenarios, the precip always comes in quicker than the models say. Temps, however, tend to follow the model trends. We had this same situation with the v-day storm last year, where we got 4-6" of snow on the front-end. If the model is legitimately showing a period of snow before changeover, then we'll probably get even more, though not a lot.

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One thing to note; NC is still within the center of the predominate precipitation swath. We just have to deal with more mixing issues than we thought yesterday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

I agree...It all has to do w/ the path.  A little further south then the more snow we get.

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Both the NAM and GFS has bumped up the precip by about .2 qpf with the 12z run for my area.  Did the Canadian do the same?  It will be interesting to see the Euro and UKMET.  I believe the SREF was the first to start ramping up the precip last night.

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I'm actually banking on this because in these sort of overrunning (using the term loosely) scenarios, the precip always comes in quicker than the models say. Temps, however, tend to follow the model trends. We had this same situation with the v-day storm last year, where we got 4-6" of snow on the front-end. If the model is legitimately showing a period of snow before changeover, then we'll probably get even more, though not a lot.

and the encouraging thing is every model is showing rdu getting a few hrs of snow with some heavy rates before changeover.  we need to get as much as we can tomorrow afternoon thru midnight or so.  but if we can get 2-3" with sleet on top i will take it.  small changes can make a huge difference though as we have seen with the many solutions shown over the past 3 days.

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Both the 12Z NAM nd 12Z GFS are showing 0.8 in of ICE for GSP area per the metogram generator.

I guess i would rather be skunked.  Not what I was hoping for a couple of days ago.

 

Still a long way to go with this one.

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgmu

 

Edit ....just looking at the bufkit table it is actually worse that what is shown in the link above.  Over 1.25 FZRA with temps well in the upper 20's for the majority of the precip.....ugh!

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kgmu

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and the encouraging thing is every model is showing rdu getting a few hrs of snow with some heavy rates before changeover.  we need to get as much as we can tomorrow afternoon thru midnight or so.  but if we can get 2-3" with sleet on top i will take it.  small changes can make a huge difference though as we have seen with the many solutions shown over the past 3 days.

Just please not the 03z SREF. A good third of the members got us into the mid-50s on Tuesday afternoon (!!!).

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Looks like rain at ahn per gfs/nam decoded data. Might be a front end burst of sleet. Just NE of there is probably where the transition will start. For instance GSP appears to be all ip/zr w/ close to an inch of qpf. This will be a very nasty icestorm where the precip is predominately zr.

 

Delta, Hickory or Lookout, thoughts about CAD areas like AHN west towards KATL? Is that a battle ground area or all RN?

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Here's the UK in case anyone was wondering. Looks like it does a Miller B transfer in the next frame.

 

 

 

Wow...That is way north and west.

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No, you can get hours and hours and hours of sleet.  It happened just here last March.  Sleet just requires that the near-surface BL be cold enough and deep enough.  Freezing rain occurs when the near-surface BL cold is more shallow and/or marginal.  This could easily be a storm where someone in NC pulls an epic pingerfest with 2-4" of accumulation given enough QPF, IMO.

 

I'm sure some of you remember as I do the sleet storm sometime in the late 80s - about 4 inches of pure sleet as I recall. Better that than zr of course.

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