franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the 6z runs trended a hair south and colder. Even the rgem. Hopefully we can shift south on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here was my morning forecast FWIW. I dont pretend to be an expert on those tricky ares in SE TN or the various topographic oddities in the TN/NC mountains so take it for what it is worth there. I still could see the band of heavy snow right now looking to be over KY/TN/VA shifting south in model runs today. We shall see. The in-situ wedge that sets-up tomorrow will be very strong so it will be very difficult to see significant warming in the CAD region Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leedev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Never forsake climo. I'm not sold on this event playing out how models trended yesterday. One thing of note from the epic blizzard in Boston a few weeks ago was the whole NYC debacle. It seemed to me that climo supported NYC not getting slammed...but pretty much every model was going against climo and giving NYC huge snows (except the GFS). At the end of the day climo won out and that storm did what it climo dictated it should do. Models could be write but when overall climo screams for something and models are going against it I wouldn't take any of those models too seriously until the event really starts unfolding which is going to be tomorrow morning.Burger, I might be wrong here, but aren't the inputs the model engines use in their algorithms based on climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the 6z runs trended a hair south and colder. Even the rgem. Hopefully we can shift south on the 12z runs. I was thinking the same thing. It looks the Northern Upstate of SC is going to come down to how much sleet we get before switching to freezing rain... Right now I'm thinking that the first 1/4 inch of liquid will be sleet and then the finally 1/2 inch or so will be freezing rain. Surface temps look to range between 30 and 32 in this area. That, combined with the fact that it looks like the precip might be fairly heavy makes me think we would only see at most 1/4 inch of ice accretion(or less) before the precipitation moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Whatever happens it's going to be super cold behind this system, in the middle of the week. Big 0-5 above .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 ABOVE..WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS10 BELOW..THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF doesn't support those lows at all. has them much warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It'l be interesting to see how much the wave over idaho can carve out of the STJ. I think it's further west than modeled. It would prob' produce a little bit warmer system aloft, but may actually cause more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF doesn't support those lows at all. has them much warmer The SREF has a warm bias I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Burger, I might be wrong here, but aren't the inputs the model engines use in their algorithms based on climo? Well obviously it uses the conditions of the climate at the start. What I'm saying is that we know lows don't just slam into giant CAD wedges or that they don't slam into cold fronts and go north of them as an example. So if a model shows that is the model just misreading something? What the model says will happen and what should happen are two different things. That's all I'm saying. At this point it could very well go north of where it should go...but I'm not leaning towards the northernmost solution until we get more in the RAP's range. One thing of note, the 9z SREF looked all over the place...would like to see what the individual members show. Something tells me there are a few members showing something further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 TWC has an updated map right now, it looks to have taken last nights runs into account, because KY jackpots with 12-18"! But it still has 3-5" for my area, and the very northern counties of NC, like Person county and west that border VA, is in the 8-12" range! After last nights runs, I would be lucky to see the ground white? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 9z SREF looked better than the 3z to me. Still not cold enough to where we want it but wetter for much of NC. As I said above it looked to me like there are a good bit of southern solutions in the individual members though I don't have access to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It'l be interesting to see how much the wave over idaho can carve out of the STJ. I think it's further west than modeled. It would prob' produce a little bit warmer system aloft, but may actually cause more QPF. Yeah, IMO, this could very well continue to trend a little north over the next 24 hr...so, a little warmer aloft...but sfc is still going to be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking at the 6z GEFS panels, there is still some variance as to how far north the primary low noses up west of the Apps before it transfers its energy to the coast. That'll determine how far north the ice/ZR line moves up. If it happens quicker, the mid level cold should stay intact a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The SREF has a warm bias I believe. SREF is an ensemble of high-res models, so unless a lot like 75% were showing something the mean would wash it out. IIf you look at the RDU plume for Tuesday afternoon, there are 4 SREF members with temps at 18z in the 50s, that bring the mean way upt although most are below the mean of 35. i wouldnt trust the SREF too much for surface temp forecasts beyond 24-36 hours and even then know the caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF is an ensemble of high-res models, so unless a lot like 75% were showing something the mean would wash it out. IIf you look at the RDU plume for Tuesday afternoon, there are 4 SREF members with temps at 18z in the 50s, that bring the mean way upt although most are below the mean of 35. i would trust the SREF too much for surface temp forecasts beyond 24-36 hours and even then know the caveats. Just look at hours 54-60 on the 9z....it goes from 30 to 50 to back to 30 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As many have said this morning, I am also in agreement that a more southern solution will appear with the 12Z runs. Why? Because as we said last week, the overall pattern is the same as it has been for the last several weeks. We've had a good pattern but no cold air. Now we have both. And yes, too, lows never crash into CAD wedges. They should pivot around them to the south. But this is dependent on the strength of the CAD, which I think yesterday's 12Z NAM had gotten right. These northern solutions are of course possible, but they really don't make sense to me. Between overall pattern, CAD, and climo, this is a classic southern stream wave during El Niño. Northern solutions are phasing too much. Look out for the 12Z runs. I'll bet dollars to donuts we shift south...maybe not 100 miles, but at least some more ticks south. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 9z SREF looked better than the 3z to me. Still not cold enough to where we want it but wetter for much of NC. As I said above it looked to me like there are a good bit of southern solutions in the individual members though I don't have access to that. The model center here has them! It's the same variance I just posted about on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 9z SREF appears to shift the heavy QPF axis a bit south this run vs 3z. Looks a litlte warmer aloft, but increases the snow accumulation (which again keep in mind is the water equivalent of frozen/freezing precip not just snow) for the NCEP models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF is an ensemble of high-res models, so unless a lot like 75% were showing something the mean would wash it out. IIf you look at the RDU plume for Tuesday afternoon, there are 4 SREF members with temps at 18z in the 50s, that bring the mean way upt although most are below the mean of 35. i wouldnt trust the SREF too much for surface temp forecasts beyond 24-36 hours and even then know the caveats. Yep. Paying attention to the spread and grouping of the members is very important with the SREF. Overall I don't really like it until we get really close and I don't remember the last time I used it for temps. I like it for Ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 The model center here has them! It's the same variance I just posted about on the GEFS. Ha for some reason when I saw you posted I knew you were going to say this. Good to know, I typically use the model center for the GEFS members. You can see on the SREF mean for 9z a qpf max pop right over GSP...so I knew there had to be some members doing something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just analyzed the 9Z SREF for RDU... The mean snowfall is only about 1 inch but the QPF seems to have increased slightly.. . Seems to confirm what others have said that we will see a little snow at the onset and then a lot of IP or FZRA. Only time we get slightly above freezing is Tuesday afternoon but then it dips below through Wednesday again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ht made a good point. Often times models will erode cold air too quickly and flood that area with warmth. Therefore you get a surface low pressure following that path. You can see a slight adjustmentioned on the 6z and you will probably see a more subtle shift on the 12z runs. This is not a run of the mill cold air in place. Temps and dew points are very low and the is good confluence in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CAE this morning .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSUREAPPROACHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THEPRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THEAFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE ANDISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LIKELY PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST WITH CHANCEIN THE EAST. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN INTHE SOUTH...RAIN AND SLEET IN THE CENTRAL SECTION...AND A MIX OFRAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN THE NORTH PART. BELIEVE AMOUNTS THROUGHMONDAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY INPLACE.THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT MAINLYASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG H85 JET. A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE WILL BEASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.HOWEVER...NEAR THE SURFACE A WEDGE-TYPE PATTERN WILL LIKELYPERSIST AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY AND COLD AIR MASSINITIALLY IN PLACE. THE GFS AND NAM DISPLAY SURFACE WET BULBTEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AUGUSTA AREA...NEAR FREEZING INTHE COLUMBIA AREA...AND BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF COLUMBIA. THEGFS...NAM AND SREF MEAN INDICATE SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH AMOUNTSGENERALLY AROUND AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOWMUCH OF THIS WILL BE ICE ACCUMULATION. THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLESLEET EARLY AND THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES RISINGTO THE MELTING POINT IN THE NORTH PART. THE NAM WAS MOREPERSISTENT KEEPING WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE WPCGUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS. THISMORNING/S GUIDANCE HAD ICE ACCUMULATION ONE-TEN TO ONE-QUARTER OFAN INCH IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OFTHE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM HAD MOISTURE LINGERING LONGER THANTHE GFS AND ECMWF. WE LOWERED POPS BASED ON THE MODEL TREND.THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY MUCH TOO WARM MONDAY BECAUSE OFA COLD START AND THICKENING CLOUDS. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDERGUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 As many have said this morning, I am also in agreement that a more southern solution will appear with the 12Z runs. Why? Because as we said last week, the overall pattern is the same as it has been for the last several weeks. We've had a good pattern but no cold air. Now we have both. And yes, too, lows never crash into CAD wedges. They should pivot around them to the south. But this is dependent on the strength of the CAD, which I think yesterday's 12Z NAM had gotten right. These northern solutions are of course possible, but they really don't make sense to me. Between overall pattern, CAD, and climo, this is a classic southern stream wave during El Niño. Northern solutions are phasing too much. Look out for the 12Z runs. I'll bet dollars to donuts we shift south...maybe not 100 miles, but at least some more ticks south. Sent from my iPad I agree with everything you said, now where can I sign up for your newsletter. 12z NAM @25 looks a tick south vs. 6z and maybe a hair colder out in front of the storm. Probably not enough to make any big differences though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For us SE VA folks if the 12Z American models continue the look of below freezing 2M temps throughout, Wakefield has to pull the trigger with a Winter Storm Watch. 9Z SREF has a mean of about 4" of snow for ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Definitely a tick south with axis of heaviest precip and a tick slower on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 yea nam out to 30 looks similar to 06z for nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The western piedmont and foothills of NC look to be in for a doozy (is that a word?) of a storm. Maps from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Much juicier through tn as other guidance has been trending. I predict a messy winter storm for nc on the next panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I agree with everything you said, now where can I sign up for your newsletter. 12z NAM @25 looks a tick south vs. 6z and maybe a hair colder out in front of the storm. Probably not enough to make any big differences though. Ha thanks man. No newsletters here...just idle thoughts. Now we wait and watch to see if NAM ticks south...even 25-50 miles would be huge at this stage. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.