SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Upon further review. SE Ridge kills it for us. High in the NE weaker than the ridge meaning low cuts. Low should move from CAE to GSO to RIC. Didnt see this before until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mt. Airy still has sub-freezing surface temps at hr 60. I think you might be below freezing the entire storm. Thanks, But man I can't believe how every model has come north this much today. And still a day or so of runs to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any update on the GEFS? I assume it went north as well? Yes, it jogged north. Looks all snow for Tri Cities/Boone, then across S Virginia (and north of there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Upon further review. SE Ridge kills it for us. High in the NE weaker than the ridge meaning low cuts. Low should move from CAE to GSO to RIC. Didnt see this before until now. Sfc low moving from Columbia to Greensboro?? Can't be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New and updated map and some thoughts. I really feel bad for y'all in that I-20 corridor...What a crazy turn of events. I don't know If I have ever seen such a shift this close in. EVER!!! Thanks for all the new likes everyone. Please like it if you want too, and you haven't. Thank you! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sfc low moving from Columbia to Greensboro?? Can't be The low is not going to take that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sfc low moving from Columbia to Greensboro?? Can't be either GSO or RDU. this thing has high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm holding onto the 00Z CMC for now! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Please put your weapons away. Now that I feel safe, I must tell you that the early maps suggest that the 0Z Euro will be further north than the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Out to hr 24, the Euro is going to be further north, I'd say. Not really a surprise as it would be an outlier, otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Please put your weapons away. Now that I feel safe, I must tell you that the early maps suggest that the 0Z Euro will be further north than the 12Z Euro. That's not a good thing. Means more ice and rain than snow for much of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's not a good thing. Means more ice and rain than snow for much of us. I know that though it could be good for those who want more ice than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's not a good thing. Means more ice and rain than snow for much of us. Probably a few sleet pellets for the upstate, then rain with these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro follows the UK, it's over for most of NC, if not all. 50-50 lifts out quicker. Major MA winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GAME SET MATCH!!!! I give up folks...I really do! EURO is almost to warm even in NC at the SFC!! ICY for all of TN Except maybe SE corner. NC looks ICY but close to rain near CLT. I honestly give up!! LOL I don't know If I have ever seen this much changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Euro is a pretty good ice storm for much of NC (especially N NC). Some front-end snow, but it's hard to say how much. Probably not a lot. Pretty horrible precip split for NC with the heavy precip heading into C VA... Mid-20s here for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 lol, wait till morning it want be no ice storm! It's easily cold enough at the surface for us... Bad ice storm, I guess. It's always great to have frigid mid-levels with 850s above freezing... We would have had more front-end snow if the Euro didn't send the best precip into central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No blocking no dice. If it is ice here I would prefer it to warm up and rain, wow what a crazy storm, trended 150 miles in a day, 36 hours from start time...Miller b's are usually more icy here than snow anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Euro is a pretty good ice storm for much of NC (especially N NC). Some front-end snow, but it's hard to say how much. Probably not a lot. Pretty horrible precip split for NC with the heavy precip heading into C VA... Mid-20s here for the duration. Yea the mods are pretty much trending towards a Miller B. I think it's clear the sfc will be cold enough. Maybe a front end 1 or 2 and then sleet/zr. The setup is actually pretty classic. Some of these posters tonight can't be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, the 0z ECMWF is...not good for most of North Carolina. It puts down some snow at the beginning (2-3"), but the precipitation type changes to ice for the northern mountains and a cold rain for the southern mountains with WWA moving in. It ends with light backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With the LP sitting in northern Alabama at hr 24, we are screwed from the get go. No way it could go due west to east. That with getting worse by the second confluence in NE. Ugh. Just enjoy first hour or 2 of fronted snow, and have the chainsaw and generator on standby. Gonna end up right smack dab in the freezing rain bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 One thing I will say about the Euro...its about 6-8 hours slower than the GFS/NAM. Not sure of the consequences behind that...but it would be nice if it lined up more with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I figure those will be changing, so enjoy them while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea the mods are pretty much trending towards a Miller B. I think it's clear the sfc will be cold enough. Maybe a front end 1 or 2 and then sleet/zr. The setup is actually pretty classic. Some of these posters tonight can't be serious. Yeah, it kind of has one of those looks where the CAD regions get an assorted wintry mix while other areas of NC rain. Seems that we saw quite a few of these back last decade looking over the past events map. It's been awhile. Of course, this one still looks cold enough for RDU and CLT to ice on most modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 wow the euro is a nasty icestorm for NC. def power outage stuff in some parts. i still believe the warm up aloft is a little overdone, but given the miller b setup, it might not be. ZR with temps in the mid 20's is pretty nasty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 wow the euro is a nasty icestorm for NC. def power outage stuff in some parts. i still believe the warm up aloft is a little overdone, but given the miller b setup, it might not be. ZR with temps in the mid 20's is pretty nasty stuff. Yeah, lots of meltdowns from North Carolinians over a model that is showing a major winter storm for much of the state. Of course, there isn't much snow shown on it, but that could change. I notice that this area goes from -7C at 850 to +3C in a six-hour panel where a good deal of precip falls. As you said, 1-2" of snow followed by other precip looks like what the Euro shows. The other modeling, sans the UKMET, are a little more keen on additional snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow euro has the low up in southeastern TN at 48. Anyone have what it does at 60 on Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Even Hickory? Yes...the entire state gets flooded with warmth from the 850-900 mb as we head into Monday evening... Will say that for the mountains/foothills there is a nice batch of cold air sitting at 925 mb...which makes me wonder if this could be sleet right along the Blue Ridge instead of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, lots of meltdowns from North Carolinians over a model that is showing a major winter storm for much of the state. Of course, there isn't much snow shown on it, but that could change. I notice that this area goes from -7C at 850 to +3C in a six-hour panel where a good deal of precip falls. As you said, 1-2" of snow followed by other precip looks like what the Euro shows. The other modeling, sans the UKMET, are a little more keen on additional snowfall. People just better pray we don't get the inch of qpf the ukmet/ggem are showing. 2 inches of snow/sleet followed by 3/4" of zr would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Best we can hope for in NC is for the American guidance to win out, be a little better. Don't see how we reverse back from under 36 hours out. The surface temps here are more than primed to hold their own. But the ukie and euro tracks spell big time frzng rn troubles I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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