DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs similar to 18z thru 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some differences between the GFS and NAM at 24 hours out.... The NAM has the storm over New England further inland by around 50-100 miles compared to the GFS. Also, the GFS has the system at 1006 mb over the west, while the NAM is at 1004 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs similar to 18z thru 30 It's north of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some differences between the GFS and NAM at 24 hours out.... The NAM has the storm over New England further inland by around 50-100 miles compared to the GFS. Also, the GFS has the system at 1006 mb over the west, while the NAM is at 1004 mb. Wouldn't that be within the "margin of error"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Interesting change at 27 hours of 0z GFS vs. 33 hours of 18z -- digging shortwave interacting with Baja low much more on new run than old -- that disturbance is a good 100 miles south (northern NM vs. central Col. in the 18z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z GFS clearly N of prior runs at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 James, It would be very surprising based on history if there ends up being a surface low moving eastward from north AL through N GA (or even C AL through C GA) and into the wedge of cold air. Also, would it make much sense? Why would the low do that? If anything, I'd expect it to dissipate while west of the wedge and there could easily be a new near SE coast low. If the low is to move eastward to the SE coast and remain primary, I think that would likely need to occur down in the southern third of GA. Maybe it would move ESE from AL into S GA. We'll see! Opinion? I'm not sure, Larry. It's certainly not a usual track, though I'm not sure if it's impossible. It might transfer after hr 48, though. --- Anyways, out to hr 42, the GFS is going to come north some, more in line with the other modeling, perhaps. Looks like it's snowing in the western Piedmont by Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS looks like the Euro, through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 snow for nc and upper sc at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wouldn't that be within the "margin of error"? Typically, yes. But these small differences can affect the outcome on the models. GFS is further north through 42 than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For NC this is better than the 18z run, IMO. The front-end thump is solid. The surface low is in line with other modeling. Good run for I-40. Looks like it probably goes over to sleet somewhere between hr 51-54, but not before a nice thump. This is going to be a bad ice storm for NC. Lots of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 well folks....updated map will be coming out soon....I-20 area, get your white flags out and start waiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, surface temps are frigid on the GFS. The I-40 corridor is in the teens at hr 54 with presumably IP. The freezing line runs from south of GSP to Fayetteville. Temps actually get colder in N NC as the storm progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 With the track on the 0z gfs a lot of us in NC have mixing issues. I'd say probably IP more than ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 change back to snow around clt around hr 60ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For NC this is better than the 18z run, IMO. The front-end thump is solid. The surface low is in line with other modeling. Good run for I-40. Looks like it probably goes over to sleet somewhere between hr 51-54, but not before a nice thump. This is going to be a bad ice storm for NC. Lots of precip. That's if it's done going north, we are still 48 hours out. Is it rain for CLT? North trend never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, surface temps are frigid on the GFS. The I-40 corridor is in the teens at hr 54 with presumably IP. The freezing line runs from south of GSP to Fayetteville. Yeah gotta be sleet with those kinds of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow much better looking with qpf! Euro ftw at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's if it's done going north, we are still 48 hours out. Is it rain for CLT? North trend never fails. True, but there's not a lot of time left for this to shift north. We seem to be locking in on a solution now, IMO. A lot of the modeling is converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Chris Justus (WYFF met) saying 2-4 inches for upstate and 4-8 inches for the mountains. You can see his latest update on WYFF's Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Guys may be a stupid question but are the models possibly suffering with any sort of convective feedback or is the lee side effect in full force in relation to getting this precip over the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking at the 5h maps, I keep expecting to see a coastal pop up early Wednesday but at this point it's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CLT precariously close to turning over to cold rain at 54 hours. Won't take much more north trending in the next 24 hours to make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Allan first guess. My first guess. Will narrow in more tomorrow. Subject to change! pic.twitter.com/u270sPMKDP 0 replies 29 retweets 23 favorites Reply Retweet 29 Retweeted 29 Favorite 23 Favorited 23 More Share via Direct Message Embed Tweet Mute Unmute Block or report Retweets 29 Favorites 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS shows no system behind the first system, so it will be the main storm Monday - Tuesday morning. Tuesday Afternoon temperatures should actually warm above freezing before plummeting behind the front Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh man, Atlanta gonna be brining roads all day tomorrow according to my news feed, this will end well I'm sure...damned if you do or don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Guys may be a stupid question but are the models possibly suffering with any sort of convective feedback or is the lee side effect in full force in relation to getting this precip over the mountains? There is no lee side shadow on the GFS, and seriously doubt there will be when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 well...looks like if your outside of TN and NC your getting NADA. Upstate and near CAE start as ZR then go over to RN Maybe the extreme northern portion of GA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For reasons already stated, I don't buy this GFS run of an eastward moving low through both central AL and central GA together with a widespread major NC ZR. It hasn't happened at the very least since 1950 and it doesn't make much sense that it would move due eastward and push directly on the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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