TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I dont think thats a bad look.... Maybe a tad bullish given uncertainty. However, with ratios possibly exceeding 15:1 in some cases... It won't take much to reach those types of numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I honestly have no idea what I need in order to receive more snowfall...does a tick south help here? The further west, south, and slower things pull, the more pretty much everybody sees. And pretty much nobody is at risk of taint or changeover here, so tug away says I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I still don't think the NAM has its teeth into anything at this range, but the takeaway here is actually that we're starting to see some consistency with the overall output... most of what I'm seeing from 00z into this run looks similar. Yea, a wobble here or there. Pretty consistent signal from guidance. I think you should be feeling more confident if you're in NE MA into ME. SW of there, we need more digging at 12z today But we aren't completely out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 The AFD would imply they may hedge heavier in the future, having mentioned 20:1 ratios, but obviously you don't forecast that until flakes are about to fly.....well, from THAT system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Too much stock is being put into ratios too early imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Too much stock is being put into ratios too early imo. I don't think 12:1-15:1 is outlandish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think we've seen this show before. The mid level tracks are great and the actual qpf depiction is a step behind. I bet this set of guidance or next catches up and shows pretty much a bomb for a lot of SNE. As some have said, mid levels on GFS trending south while EURO might have gone a touch north. Bombing low goes south of us but most QPF falls up in Maine? Not if the ULL tracks under us. I just don't buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 These NAM solutions just refuse to make this more than a raging snow flurry wind fest... Pounds PWM and point NE toward NS though... wow. Historically perhaps at that. Not sure what to make of this... Each model has it's own idea on show this impacts SNE. The GGEM/NAVGEM both pound SNE all the way back to the Berk's relative to their own QPF biases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 These NAM solutions just refuse to make this more than a raging snow flurry wind fest... Pounds PWM and point NE toward NS though... wow. Historically perhaps at that. Not sure what to make of this... Each model has it's own idea on show this impacts SNE. The GGEM/NAVGEM both pound SNE all the way back to the Berk's relative to their own QPF biases... John, what is your gut on this?? Not what you think should be spewed forth onto grids....but what would you think the end result would be if you had a couple shots of truth serum at the local watering hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think we've seen this show before. The mid level tracks are great and the actual qpf depiction is a step behind. I bet this set of guidance or next catches up and shows pretty much a bomb for a lot of SNE. As some have said, mid levels on GFS trending south while EURO might have gone a touch north. Bombing low goes south of us but most QPF falls up in Maine? Not if the ULL tracks under us. I just don't buy that. Well, WIll mentions that this 5H low struggles to get "inflow" going which is a key reason why a 5H track under us is usually so awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just looked at 0z cmc, really hope it's onto something....it's been steady on showing an decent nyc to boston hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, WIll mentions that this 5H low struggles to get "inflow" going which is a key reason why a 5H track under us is usually so awesome Right, models aren't "dumb." There is a reason why the QPF is further NE. It's not like they go "hey, the ULL is going south of us! Oh noes..bump up QPF!" The best dynamics are NE into Maine. At least as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 FWIW: By 21z Sunday, the NAM 0F line at 2m is already down to DXR-TOL-ORH with temperatures crashing. Even showing -30C 850s in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 FWIW: By 21z Sunday, the NAM 0F line at 2m is already down to DXR-TOL-ORH with temperatures crashing. Even showing -30C 850s in upstate NY. Whats that mean? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Whats that mean? lolWe cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Whats that mean? lol temps near the surface at close to 0 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Whats that mean? lol That it will be very cold Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's a bold move Cotton! Not saying it's wrong, but it's a bit bullish without seeing this morning's runs to really solidify this thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 As mentioned, I think that BOX early map is implying 15:1 or 20:1 ratios... hmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Whats that mean? lol Throw on another shawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Whats that mean? lol We bang the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Throw on another shawl Break out the Man Uggs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's a bold move Cotton! Not saying it's wrong, but it's a bit bullish without seeing this morning's runs to really solidify this thinking. Probably 15:1 Euro gave me 1" qpf, GFS about .7". Blend @ 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Too much stock is being put into ratios too early imo. you are likely right as you usually are....lots of variables like temp in snow growth zone, wind affecting the crystals, etc. 20:1 would be awesome but likely a stretch for the whole storm for sure. But heck 1 inch of qpf really could be a 12-18 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I still think with a ULL track like that, we'll see models bump the QPF up as we get closer...again this is assuming the ULL doesn't trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 John, what is your gut on this?? Not what you think should be spewed forth onto grids....but what would you think the end result would be if you had a couple shots of truth serum at the local watering hole... Well ... ever since that last event, it just has never sat well with me that the N-stream is trying to bully these deep anomalies through in such rapid succession ... There's a an atmospheric recovery issue in play, all over eastern America, and that really hasn't gone away. In fact, this event today/night (that is going to drill a massive amount of DPVA under us without apparent consequence ...) is actually still yet a detriment to this latter weekend deal, whether it sticks around or not. Sorry - but my gut 'feelings' are in part constructed by logic... It is still whisking away what recovery we may have made (in terms of moisture and thermodynamic gradients) since the duration event left and left the region neutralized. The current system places the area right back into starvation mode by tomorrow; and then already ... we have to be ready for the arrival of the beast Saturday night? Good luck. It could just be one of the most exotic examples of wasted wave dynamics since modern technology, math and physics all teamed up to invent Meteorology. The key there might be that 'beast' term, in the sense that it is a powerful entity in the atmosphere ...truly, as an understatement. I am confident that those conceptual aspects discussed above are true, but when you start pressing into anomalies of this scale ...heh, tough to have a gut about that. I agree with those that see the NE zones as greatest impacts ... You know, this whole system is like an LP supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Do we have any analogs on this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I still think with a ULL track like that, we'll see models bump the QPF up as we get closer...again this is assuming the ULL doesn't trend north. That was basically my point from earlier. GFS running.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I still think with a ULL track like that, we'll see models bump the QPF up as we get closer...again this is assuming the ULL doesn't trend north. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Right, models aren't "dumb." There is a reason why the QPF is further NE. It's not like they go "hey, the ULL is going south of us! Oh noes..bump up QPF!" The best dynamics are NE into Maine. At least as currently modeled. There is often reasoning for being a Queen. I like that phrase...models aren't dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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