weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd love the trajectory of the arctic wave about 200 miles further west. That would probably ensure one for the ages for NYC north to the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just my opinion, nice event but pedestrian by this winters standards unless you're in the space station watching the upper atmospheric spin with Steve. pedestrian? PYM on the model that gives you the least precip 0214/2100Z 63 17006KT 24.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 150215/0000Z 66 21007KT 29.2F SNOW 18:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100 18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 150215/0300Z 69 VRB01KT 24.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 14:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 150215/0600Z 72 06006KT 28.7F SNOW 19:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 15:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150215/0900Z 75 34013KT 16.8F SNOW 17:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.249 16:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 150215/1200Z 78 30013KT 16.2F SNOW 22:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.216 18:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 150215/1500Z 81 33020KT 18.8F SNOW 20:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 18:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0 150215/1800Z 84 32022KT 13.7F SNOW 19:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 18:1| 17.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150215/2100Z 87 32019KT 8.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 18:1| 17.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It is notable that Hpc has no probs of 12 plus bumping this because it is a red flag. this is the middle of the night snow probs. Not only no 12", but very small area of 8. Euro qpr an inch back to CON and high ratios yet no 12 inch probs anywhere, even in ME where euro is 1.4. What are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd love the trajectory of the arctic wave about 200 miles further west. That would probably ensure one for the ages for NYC north to the Canadian border.Yup. It would spread the wealth south and west, without taking anything from north and east. Like an across the board tax-cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 bumping this because it is a red flag. this is the middle of the night snow probs. Not only no 12", but very small area of 8. Euro qpr an inch back to CON and high ratios yet no 12 inch probs anywhere, even in ME where euro is 1.4. What are they seeing? 3 days out. You'll most likely see those go up this afternoon if the guidance continues to look like it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 bumping this because it is a red flag. this is the middle of the night snow probs. Not only no 12", but very small area of 8. Euro qpr an inch back to CON and high ratios yet no 12 inch probs anywhere, even in ME where euro is 1.4. What are they seeing? Who cares about HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If I were to guess jP it would be Plymouth to Gloucester Jefffaffa Eric Maine Photog Tamarack triangle. Scooter , snowmobiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If I were to guess jP it would be Plymouth to Gloucester Jefffaffa Eric Maine Photog Tamarack triangle. Scooter , snowmobiling Scooter presented an opportunity Steve...nothing personal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Scooter presented an opportunity Steve...nothing personal... scooter? old man that was Cweat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 scooter? old man that was Cweat Late night at the vet and early day at work...too much for this senior... Still liking 6-12 for the eastern half of sne/nh/me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The trends at 00z are pretty neutral thus far vs 12z...maybe slightly better. The problem this system will fight is getting the conveyors cranking efficiently. The guidance wants to disrupt it a bit on the eastern and northeastern periphery by elongating it...i.e. th einverted trough structure. This limits inflow of Atlantic moisture into SNE. We still get some decent inflow...otherwise you wouldn't be getting warning snows on some of these runs, but it's why we aren't seeing a bunch of Euro-esque outputs. Even the Euro itself fights this problem somewhat but manages to overcome it and consolidate everything at the last minute enough fr a larger hit. What we are looking for is a trend away from this inverted trough structure. It starts with the ULL. Keep that more consolidated and not stretched too much...this helps downstream ridging which has been an issue in this system on the models. Will and Scott , what things will cause a 5H to elongate, it's obviously a anomalous strength ULL, so what is the reason models have it stretched a bit passing under us? i.e What "could" lead modeling to trend it more consolidated at 12z, it's plenty strong? I also recall a post by Scott, in response yesterday to a "ENY" poster had a unique post with some link to a site w interactive abilities to mess around with the western ridge and scott mentioned that this illustrated how nuances in Pac Ridge could lead to different solutions for us, I was wondering in what regard those nuances trended at 0z if at all. Was wondering if scott could go into more detail with this meant, does this include things like getting our 5H low to dive into the Great lakes a bit further SW and then have a little more "wiggle" room, and less needing to thread the needle to crush us, I was wondering how that trended at 0z last night or if its not an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I hope youre wrong ginxy. Dont want another JP at this point I wish my town was good at snow removal. I miss living in new hampshire.12z and 0z gonna be huge runs for this storm. I can really see it going either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Will what things will cause a 5H to elongate, it's obviously a anomalous strength ULL, so what is the reason models have it stretched a bit passing under us? i.e What "could" lead modeling to trend it more consolidated at 12z, it's plenty strong? Im going to take a stab at this. Potentially it's because the baroclinic zone is so far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 20:1 ratios and a bombing low in GOM. Eastern areas gonna get pounded. Doesn't look impressive for other parts of NE, but holy mackerel, another coastal for Wednesday! Thank God the kids have February vacation or they'd be in double digits days off. No Feb vacation here. Just a 4 day weekend. The week off was taken away years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm about 50/50 on it...GFS is trending south...Euro might have gone a razors edge north, but we're talking such small moves on the Euro. I really don't have a greta feel for it. The trajectory it takes through the lakes would suggest further north to me, but this vort energy is so strong that it can definitely dig a bit. Qualitatively, this one may harken back to Jefaffa's favorite event of all-time. Invision similar gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Will what things will cause a 5H to elongate, it's obviously a anomalous strength ULL, so what is the reason models have it stretched a bit passing under us? i.e What "could" lead modeling to trend it more consolidated at 12z, it's plenty strong? Lack of excellent downstream ridging. Normally you have higher heights ahead of a shortwave and the resistance of those heights causes the flow to "curl" up to the north and then northwest as the very strong shortwave exerts its presence. Without it, you tend to have the flow curl more north and northeast. We want to see those height lines rip back NW north of the H5 low which is what gives us the good inflow of moisture. The euro actually looked pretty decent on this aspect which is probably why I didn't meh the QPF output as much as others. It tilted the PVA a little differently which is a really tedious nuance that can't really be forecasted at 78-84 hours. We will see how today does but the lack of downstream ridging is something this system has been fighting from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 All we are talking is subtle changes in the trajectory and orientation of the ULL and all bets are off. We know that winds will be pretty fierce along the eastern coastline and temperatures will be frigid. The wildcard is precip and if we can wrap this baby up soon enough to take this from a pretty solid system into something historic. On to 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Qualitatively, this one may harken back to Jefaffa's favorite event of all-time. Invision similar gradient. Who or what is Jefaffa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Who or what is Jefaffa?Jeff in Lewiston, ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've always wondered why he calls him Jeffalfa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've always wondered why he calls him Jeffalfa? Jeff Dunham, He is not the only one that calls me that name............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Id go 1-2' in ne MA, with a sharp gradient s and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've always wondered why he calls him Jeffalfa?Me too, but just stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sounds like maybe a 3"-6" event my way, with painful cold and winds. That's good with me. Might get me over the 70" mark for the season if it all comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm about 50/50 on it...GFS is trending south...Euro might have gone a razors edge north, but we're talking such small moves on the Euro. I really don't have a greta feel for it. The trajectory it takes through the lakes would suggest further north to me, but this vort energy is so strong that it can definitely dig a bit. Will, is there any wiggle room with the trajectory it takes through the Lakes Yesterday Scott responded to a post w a link it it by a "ENY" poster where scott said..."you can see how messing around w nuances in the Western Ridge can effect things for us" and I hope I paraphrased that correctly. Have these nuances trended in any way at 0z last night and if the ridge nuances trended crappier is that a reason why this SW would not drop more SW into the lakes as it traversed , or am I out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sounds like maybe a 3"-6" event my way, with painful cold and winds. That's good with me. Might get me over the 70" mark for the season if it all comes together. I've been wondering about how strong wind gusts could be for everyone. But noone has taken a stab at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Will, is there any wiggle room with the trajectory it takes through the Lakes Yesterday Scott responded to a post w a link it it by a "ENY" poster where scott said..."you can see how messing around w nuances in the Western Ridge can effect things for us" and I hope I paraphrased that correctly. Have these nuances trended in any way at 0z last night and if the ridge nuances trended crappier is that a reason why this SW would not drop more SW into the lakes as it traversed , or am I out to lunch A western ridge more amped would definitely help this track further south through the lakes. Gotta watch how that trends today and tonight because there is energy that comes on shore in BC on Friday that affects the amplitude of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've been wondering about how strong wind gusts could be for everyone. But noone has taken a stab at it Steve is the wind-master. I thought he posted something earlier. Although I suppose solidifying the next few runs is in order for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A western ridge more amped would definitely help this track further south through the lakes. Gotta watch how that trends today and tonight because there is energy that comes on shore in BC on Friday that affects the amplitude of the ridge. That is what I figured Seems today/tonight's system has done "its job" but the western ridge trended crappier. Which initially , (yesterday)may have been good on 12z by flattening the trough and having this cut more W-E on 12z, but I mean we may have needed the trends crappier to stop right there to give us any semblance of wiggle room so this doesn't cut (further NE) thru lakes and push everything "good" Ne ward from us. Would we want that Energy "slower" or just what? to trend ridge more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Id go 1-2' in ne MA, with a sharp gradient s and w James, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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