SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I mean don't get me wrong, it's still an awesome event for most east of BDL(Warning criteria), and combined with the winds and the temps it's definitely something I'm looking forward to, but if you're looking for a 15"+ event and you don't live in NH or ME that run all but took that idea off the table I think. At least at the surface, we've got pretty good consensus between the GFS and the Euro now it looks like. Aloft is fuzzier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I mean don't get me wrong, it's still an awesome event for most east of BDL(Warning criteria), and combined with the winds and the temps it's definitely something I'm looking forward to, but if you're looking for a 15"+ event and you don't live in NH or ME that run all but took that idea off the table I think. At least at the surface, we've got pretty good consensus between the GFS and the Euro now it looks like. Aloft is fuzzier. Totally disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It won't take much to get 12+ in ern areas. That may only take .8" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It won't take much to get 12+ in ern areas. That may only take .8" QPF.Too late, you said it was meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You guys are going to get smoked. Coastal pounder from one end of state to the other. Yeah, I'm more optimistic that we pull warning snows out of this now up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Totally disagree. 1-2 degree change in trajectory of the upper complex early on would change this entirely. As it is its just a bit too late. Drop the same system in with the moist air closer to the coast instead of Bermuda and IMO it would end up maxing much earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Too late, you said it was meh It's not as impressive as 12z. Still not bad. Those were the early returns of the euro. Nothing we haven't seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Time to up PoP from low chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Time to up PoP from low chance. lol, Moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 For those who partake in the examination of the variable known as QPF, Note: All these totals include tomorrow which is less than 0.1" for all except in PF land. No easy way to see total without it unfortunately on WxBell. 0.3"+ for all 0.5"+ from the southeast corner of CT to Mt. Tolland to SkiMRG to the VT/NY border and then due north. 0.7"+ from PVD-ORH-VT/NH border at the widest part of NH and then due north. 1"+ from BOS and then up into NH just west of I93 1.4"+ far NEMA to just south of Sunday River to Houlton, ME 1.8"+ southern ME(50 miles or less from the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's too bad it doesn't slow a tad. The ULL track is great, but it's just a tad too progressive to get its act together verbatim for something larger. Maybe future runs improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Time to up PoP from low chance. Seems appropriate at this juncture Went with a 2:1 0z GFS-12z Euro blend myself around 11 tonight and I like that a lot after seeing the latest Euro. Also like ratios anywhere from 15-20:1, only potential limiting factor is the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not as impressive as 12z. Still not bad. Those were the early returns of the euro. Nothing we haven't seen.4-8" is not meh to me and this is at or above that threshold. All guidance tonight is warning criteria. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty low hit for Amherst, NH though plenty of time I hope for this to come a little west and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty low hit for Amherst, NH though plenty of time I hope for this to come a little west and south Um, what? You get 15-20" on that run, 1.25" ish QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 4-8" is not meh to me and this is at or above that threshold. All guidance tonight is warning criteria. Works for me. Yeah spread out. Nothing we haven't seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nobody should really be coming to big conclusions about a lower impact storm because the QPF output was less this run...it sort of reminds me of that one run before the Firehose Storm in Mar 2013 when people panicked because of lower QPF even though the upper levels showed basically the same thing. We have more lead time here so all options are still on the table...but this track of ULL should never be taken lightly no matter what the pretty QPF maps tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Um, what? You get 15-20" on that run, 1.25" ish QPF. Mattmos dad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The track is great normally. But sometimes orientation and speed can effect where the best dynamics come to play. Nothing wrong with 1" or whatever the QPF is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The track is great normally. But sometimes orientation and speed can effect where the best dynamics come to play. Nothing wrong with 1" or whatever the QPF is. Something as nuanced like the way it handles PVA can affect the QPF output...which is why I sort of cringe when people get married to the the QPF output at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Something as nuanced like the way it handles PVA can affect the QPF output...which is why I sort of cringe when people get married to the the QPF output at this range. Yeah I don't give two sh*ts about the QPF. I think what the models sort of hint at is that the way the s/w looks and how it dives SE-E-NE..it results in the low developing and then dives SE-E and then NE as well. When that happens..the good WAA and QG forcing sort of gets pulled N and NW too with the low up into the GOM. So JMHO, but what I would like to see is less elongation and more of a concentric s/w moving E and not necessarily curling NE. So yes I like the look..I guess my question is how fast and north does it gets its act together. That's all I mean. I think it's a valid topic. I mean yeah..maybe the meh comment isn't warranted in BOS and NE MA since it wraps back precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I should clarify that I am speaking about SNE. Not my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Get the paddles out, unless your Boston north along the coast to bar harbor meh. Cool system and we can discuss jet streaks and the dm of the ULL but I will go out in a limb and say this won't be a major deal for most of us. The ULL track normally would be fine for eastern SNE but the best low level moisture etc is way way offshore. Heck there will be offshore cold winds halfway to Bermuda for awhile in advance. It'll takes few hours for it to really develop moisture on the cold side of life and as ocean wx pointed out earlier it's that process that feeds back on itself to deepen aloft too. We would have needed better ridging, And it seems to be going the other way. Just my opinion, nice event but pedestrian by this winters standards unless you're in the space station watching the upper atmospheric spin with Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like the upper level look much better than the QPF Queen look though...I'd take my chances any day of the week with a deep closed 5H low over the 40th parallel due S of BID. Yeah it looks as good or even a bit better than 12 z..unless you're a queen and that's your focus. Blizzard watches at 4pm? As long as we continue to see the mid levels go south of LI..it is going to get wild for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah it looks as good or even a bit better than 12 z..unless you're a queen and that's your focus. Blizzard watches at 4pm? As long as we continue to see the mid levels go south of LI..it is going to get wild for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ??? Will and others said it looked better..you don't think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I actually agree about blizzard conditions. We were just discussing why models are doing what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The idea of an elongated low pressure like the 6z GFS is perfectly valid. The low will attempt to develop along the sharpest boundary which is WAY offshore. Absent a stall or slowing it'll be tough to ton epic moisture west, but it manages to give a good backlash slap to eastern MA and RI. It's a shame that first 6-7 hours there isn't a ton of initial moisture to work on as the low begins to drop the bottom out. 4-8" MBY seems likely maybe 5-10", there's room both on future upside and downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ??? Will and others said it looked better..you don't think so? I said the track if the ULL was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I said the track if the ULL was fine. Well I think some elaboration is needed with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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