NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Been swamped with work, so I haven't seen any guidance today. I've just been following this thread. However, just peaked at the 0z GFS and am pleased with our chances if this is the "meh" solution among the big boy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not sure what people are seeing but there was definitely a southward shift in track vs 18z. Not a bad hit at all. Yup bout 40 miles or so on 7H and 5H low tracks.....(as it traverses SNE's longitude) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z is about 40 miles South with 7H track with regard to passing SNE Ditto 5H track Slightly more qpf for Boston: 0.66" vs. 0.54" at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run cut back the QPF in ME quite a bit. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hey, I'd rather it be noise to the south, than north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run cut back the QPF in ME quite a bit. Strange. The orientation of the H5 low was a little more stretched E-W this run vs 12z. I would think that is part of it aside form a slight tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z and 18z overlapped... not sure how to do the animated GIF thing... but the more southeast contours are the 0z, clearly ~50 miles southeast splitting hairs... speaking of which, Harv is on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GFS is much further southwest with the heaviest QPF over eastern MA vs over eastern ME. That is a huge shift southwestward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hey, I'd rather it be noise to the south, than north lolyeah.... keep it down there lol. No one sees the fun they should if the mid levels go over our head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hey, I'd rather it be noise to the south, than north lol Definitely would love another 50-75 miles South on ML tracks for a HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z and 18z overlapped... not sure how to do the animated GIF thing... but the more southeast contours are the 0z, clearly ~50 miles southeast splitting hairs... speaking of which, Harv is on... Slide1.jpg show off, my graph was pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Harv says slight chance of low developing over us or to the north. He's putting his money on it developing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Harv hedging Euro > GFS, appropriate given the other model weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Slightly more qpf for Boston: 0.66" vs. 0.54" at 18z.at ratios that's pretty impressive for what I thought was an underplayed qpf output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it torches us briefly at hr150 but we are in the fringes.. SE MA would be cooked. Maybe the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought the shifts were pretty minor...toggling them, the 00z is slightly SE at the same time as 18z, but it is essentially model noise to me at this range. I'd be more "impressed" with a tick like that if it was inside of 48 hours versus 78-84 hours. Right, a model burp. At this time range it's not a big enough move to be called a shift really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No reason to put the eggs in the GFS basket right now...it is the outlier after all. Unless you count the 12z JMA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run cut back the QPF in ME quite a bit. Strange. Give the dynamics involved I don't expect the QPF to look quite as "blotchy" as the GFS depicts. I would expect a little more evenly distributed around the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 JMA does not belong in the same convo as the GFS/CMC/EURO/NAM suites and respective ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I didn't mind the shifts. Actually brought some vicious conditions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's some insane low level instability and lift on the GFS. Actually brings -LIs close to the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 at ratios that's pretty impressive for what I thought was an underplayed qpf output I agree. Even as there's a chance this develops a little too far to the north, there are also opportunities for something closer to what the 12z ECMWF depicted. The intense cold, snow, and wind should make this a fairly nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Harv hedging Euro > GFS, appropriate given the other model weight GFS is a little bit of an outlier on storm track. Thinking the slight tick south is a trend. Look for another 50 miles or so tick next run, especially after we get more sampling input in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Probably need the GFS depiction for those of us in NH that want a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well the trend continues major. Gfs shifted slightly, awaiting euro. I suspect euro won't change much but I'll find out in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Could the warm SST eddy near 40N/70W cause higher moisture advection and potential for lightning in static instability caused by the extremely cold air to ocean surface temperature contrast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Probably need the GFS depiction for those of us in NH that want a good storm I think euro would be way better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Probably need the GFS depiction for those of us in NH that want a good storm Euro was better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Probably need the GFS depiction for those of us in NH that want a good storm Ya , Euro just grazed you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z digs H5 about 50 miles southeast of 18z, not ambiguous People must be looking at smaller maps Not taking any of this verbatim this early. Even the Euro / CMC had multiple surface lows juggling around. Bottom line huge amount of energy to play with, and nice to see the GFS northern outlier tick towards the rest. I did not see much of a tick with the upper level low positioning in its approach during the timeframe when it could significantly influence the outcome. After hrs 81 or 84 or so it does not really matter where the ULL goes because the SLP has already pulled NE. Both the 0z and 18z GFS tracked the ULL through NYS. Other guidance was further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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