BRSno Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still not bad at all IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gfs s rather mundane due to the h5 low going overhead. Talking sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Thursday system is out of the way so rapid that shortwave heights ahead of the arctic h5 low should be more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A little less consolidated at H5 then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gfs s rather mundane due to the h5 low going overhead. Talking sne. At least it's a deep H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks a little south of the 18z run to me, but still nothing like the Euro through hour 81 on the 0z GFS. Still will produce a warning criteria storm for many, but not the blockbuster that the Euro would provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here is a look at 00z tonight. The shortwave we care about is the red X, the nearest soundings are the pink stars. So it isn't like it's a complete mystery to the models tonight. Maybe the absolute strength of the shortwave is slightly under-sampled, but that could be argued at any part of the upper air network. upperair.png Great info 0z looks like it digs a little more southeast, improvement from 18z I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Must be pretty much dead nuts on 18z if we have people differing on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If it dug more southwest that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just sayin'....Fim from a few days ago for this next event. I don't see any love for ME in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not sure why people said 00z GFS looked north of the earlier runs today, I don't see that at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Over Buffalo, NY at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It is better for eastern areas, not as north as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't see any love for ME in that scenario. His point is that it showed a minor impact from the event tmw, which is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's like 3 runs in a row on the GFS almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SW for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 His point is that it showed a minor impact from the event tmw, which is correct. at 96 hours on this weeks system it correctly targeted Scott as the heaviest band overnight into Monday. I think it has it's moments (it was also too far south with the overrunning though) GFS seems "fine" to me in general....it just comes together a little late for most of SNE with impacts increasing to the E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Will, what site do you use for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Did okay for the blizzard - arguably better than the Euro... Has it's moments, kind of like to look at it when we have data poor systems. First time I've mentioned it as I knew it would be poo-poo'd by the Euro-nites. I've been looking at that model the last few weeks to. It's output hasn't been horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Harv's kind of honking. He appears to expect big doings but all he said was 6+ which seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's like 3 runs in a row on the GFS almost identical Very similar, minor wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z is about 40 miles South with 7H track with regard to passing SNE Ditto 5H track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol, would be pretty funny if the EURO caves to the GFS in a couple hours? If that happens, confidence will lower further for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Must be pretty much dead nuts on 18z if we have people differing on trends. 0z digs H5 about 50 miles southeast of 18z, not ambiguous People must be looking at smaller maps Not taking any of this verbatim this early. Even the Euro / CMC had multiple surface lows juggling around. Bottom line huge amount of energy to play with, and nice to see the GFS northern outlier tick towards the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I find it difficult to believe that the EURO will cave to the GFS at 00z. Plus it didn't back down until within 12 hours of the blizzard of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Harv's kind of honking. He appears to expect big doings but all he said was 6+ which seems reasonable. Yeah, for most of his viewing area, even the northern GFS solutions are still generally low end warning criteria. Basically eastern third of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not sure what people are seeing but there was definitely a southward shift in track vs 18z. Not a bad hit at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z digs H5 about 50 miles southeast of 18z, not ambiguous People must be looking at smaller maps Not taking any of this verbatim this early. Even the Euro / CMC had multiple surface lows juggling around. Bottom line huge amount of energy to play with, and nice to see the GFS northern outlier tick towards the rest. I thought the shifts were pretty minor...toggling them, the 00z is slightly SE at the same time as 18z, but it is essentially model noise to me at this range. I'd be more "impressed" with a tick like that if it was inside of 48 hours versus 78-84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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