CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I def. favor the EURO, but the notion of somewhat of a compromise is not outlandish....which is big because there isn't much leeway in that regard....unless you're in ME. Or it could go the other way and nuke on the BM. But man people are losing their minds..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This PV anomaly trucking out of the Arctic is mainly an upper level feature, with very little disturbance in the low levels initially. We know we have a strong baroclinic zone setting up along the East Coast at the same time. The upper level PV anomaly will induce a cyclonic flow in the low levels. Cyclonic flow over a strong baroclinic zone initiates WAA on the east side, and CAA on the west side of the upper level anomaly. This develops cyclone formation in the low levels, which feeds back to the upper levels and strengthens in the upper disturbance. So you can see how for a time these two features will be in sync with each other and allow for the rapid cyclogenesis being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yea and the wind, cold . seems a little bit of denial kicking in,some sensory overload. Keep calm and Scroll on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I def. favor the EURO, but the notion of somewhat of a compromise is not outlandish....which is big because there isn't much leeway in that regard....unless you're in ME. ME is just a bigger version of CC. It dangles way the hell out into the moist gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here is where modeling stands at 06z (12z in the case of the ECMWF) Sunday. 500 mb heights (yellow), 700 mb heights (white), and vorticity (shaded). You can see the GFS is already the northern outlier in 500 mb low, in addition to the fact that the NAM and GGEM both have digging left to do before rounding the base of the trough. Next frame we lose the NAM, but the ECMWF and GGEM are both south of SNE with the 500 mb low, the GFS is NE off the tip of Cape Cod. 4pnl.png great post. i love seeing the different models like that. thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Tomorrow's storm fell apart after a few decent runs. The Sunday storm could do something similar. Late spins ups are notoriously tricky. Southern stream events are more reliable.tomorrow had no legs from the get go, couple of good op runs with huge Ens spread, could this fall apart. Sure but I would go 75-25 it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Tomorrow's "storm" had no space to work with. Sunday is a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gyx has partly sunny skies for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Isn't the more likely option a SW trend than north given the transient block? N stream systems like to trend south while southern streamers come north And highly dynamic and diabatic systems like to cut across temp gradients rather than follow them. There are many things that can affect storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I almost went bonkers on edduggs but I realize the cold now would mitigate against that disaster this time. I think a gfs solution would be rather meh. However, I think this goes either gfs or euro...no in between. I doubt a compromise this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keep calm and Scroll on.snowmobile will be your friend.At least the snow on your roof and around your foundation is a good insulator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Tomorrow's storm fell apart after a few decent runs. The Sunday storm could do something similar. Late spins ups are notoriously tricky. Southern stream events are more reliable. The GFS never had tomorrow's event as a storm even from 6 days out. In fact, many runs showed a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Tomorrow's "storm" had no space to work with. Sunday is a different beast. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heres the difference between what was the GFS run which showed a good snow storm tomorrow and what the prog is for Sunday, massive overwhelming anomaly signal Sunday. for this to fail or be shunted is going to take some serious model changes at all levels and across all models and their Ensn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Or it could go the other way and nuke on the BM. But man people are losing their minds..lol. i just don't want a scenario in which we are modeled to be not he western fringe of the heavy snow shield, as it is forecasted to explode just in time...and remember that I said this, these late-bloomers are notorious for ticking ne right up until go-time....models continue to chase, chase, chase, and never quite catch up. We saw this in the blizzard, which some, myself included, predicted. Not usually that drastic, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I doubt highly the bowling ball is going in the gutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I doubt highly the bowling ball is going in the gutter Playing with bumpers on right now. Can't go in the gutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Overconfidence from the hot streak. Deep upper level systems don't always produce snowy events. The pattern creates confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heres the difference between what was the GFS run which showed a good snow storm tomorrow and what the prog is for Sunday, massive overwhelming anomaly signal Sunday. for this to fail or be shunted is going to take some serious model changes at all levels and across all models and their Ens gfs_z500a_us_17.pngn Pretty colors. If that ULL passes over KGON this storm is one hell of a bust for many. Need to get it south and get it to dig. An ULL over our fannies may be NB but pretty lame otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Playing with bumpers on right now. Can't go in the gutter. lol, This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I almost went bonkers on edduggs but I realize the cold now would mitigate against that disaster this time. I think a gfs solution would be rather meh. However, I think this goes either gfs or euro...no in between. I doubt a compromise this time. lol I was in the HV for Dec 2000. Actually one of the biggest snowstorms of my life outside of Utah. This setup clearly favors further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty colors. If that ULL passes over KGON this storm is one hell of a bust for many. Need to get it south and get it to dig. An ULL over our fannies may be NB but pretty lame otherwise. Disagree a 498 passing overhead is still going to be pretty sweet, you are looking for big qpf numbers, not me but heres some more pretty colors for you, Try to temper your enthusiasm you have been such a bundle of excitement since you missed the best storm of the year. From undah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Guess what happens when this happens on Saturday Nite? Boom goes the dynamite, down falls the snow, up go the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Steve, you can honestly tell me you wouldn't be a bit disappointed if this ULL passed over head with 1-3" of fluff? i'm not talking about complaining or anything...but deep down, you wouldn't be like "oh well, that sucks"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 What time does the $hit really hit the fan in the more robust depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS never had tomorrow's event as a storm even from 6 days out. In fact, many runs showed a complete whiff. That's not true, up to 18z yesterday the GFS had 6 straight runs of 1.0" of QPF over from BOS to CC and Islands for the Thursday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I put odds of happening at 75/25 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's not true, up to 18z yesterday the GFS had 6 straight runs of 1.0" of QPF over from BOS to CC and Islands for the Thursday storm. That is not true James. There was one 18z run that bombed us but no others. That run was maybe 72 hours back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What time does the $hit really hit the fan in the more robust depiction? Just after 7-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What time does the $hit really hit the fan in the more robust depiction?Hard to tell off 6 hour panels but on the 12z euro you've got around 1" down by 7 and 5"+ down by 1 am Sunday morning. I'd guess somewhere in the 9-11 range is when it gets ugly, but that's an educated guess given that I only have 6 hour maps to work off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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