powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Jesus, enough with the speculation of who is getting what jack 4 days out. This is special for you guys near BOS. I'm in awe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I would say there is a good chance for at least 40"-50" That sounds a little high. I'm thinking 30-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Poor man's analysis and you could pick a potential temp surface and plot pressure on it (this shows you the slope of the surface (higher pressures are troughs, lowers pressures are ridges in this sense). This is a poor man's analysis because given the moisture and potential instability present we can have diabatic processes occur and parcels won't follow their original potential temp lines. Imagine they did though, and you can see how warm conveyor winds wrapping around to the NW of the cyclone would be forced "up" to higher pressure surfaces as they follow (in this case the 285 K) potential temp surface. This is the added lift that lingers on the NW side of occluded systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hull Ma , heres a link to watch if you have tidal concerns http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=72-96&type=&stn= Thanks Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Poor man's analysis and you could pick a potential temp surface and plot pressure on it (this shows you the slope of the surface (higher pressures are troughs, lowers pressures are ridges in this sense). TROWAL2.png This is a poor man's analysis because given the moisture and potential instability present we can have diabatic processes occur and parcels won't follow their original potential temp lines. Imagine they did though, and you can see how warm conveyor winds wrapping around to the NW of the cyclone would be forced "up" to higher pressure surfaces as they follow (in this case the 285 K) potential temp surface. This is the added lift that lingers on the NW side of occluded systems. ozone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GYX issues its discussion at 1:24 without apparently looking too much at the 12Z suite for Sunday. Their long term discussion is the same as the one overnight. Seems BOX did the same. For reference the long term is rarely, if ever, updated during the intermediate hours with new forecast information. The near/short term is updated every 3 hours or so, so the long term will always be the previous shift's version until the main package is issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Jesus, enough with the speculation of who is getting what jack 4 days out. Easy for you to say, you've two foot your way to the top of the leaderboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is special for you guys near BOS. I'm in awe. I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Easy for you to say, you've two foot your way to the top of the leaderboard. That has nothing to do with how things can change in 4 days though. Hopefully this is a region wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. Fairly easy to say when you jacked the last 3 storms....however, you have never really been one to be like that anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Fairly easy to say when you jacked the last 3 storms....however, you have never really been one to be like that anyway... Read post above. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 wonder if Ct can handle the refugees. I can probably take in a half dozen coeds from harvard if necessasry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. Kevin is already in defense mode because best banding might be east of him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. That makes me sick too. Just have to be in awe and sitback and watch things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That has nothing to do with how things can change in 4 days though. Hopefully this is a region wide event. Agree. I'm actually hoping boston gets 2ft, I want to see chaos. I want the public on their knees begging for it to stop. Also, I'm flying out of town Sunday so I have no skin in this really besides hoping my flight gets off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 wonder if Ct can handle the refugees. I can probably take in a half dozen coeds from harvard if necessasry If anyone needs assistance with my offer please PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. I thought we were aware that I am a parody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity plots are pretty neat to look at. Positional uncertainty (mainly west) seems to account for a large portion of the spread for 12z GEFS. Largest mslp spread in the vicinity of NYC probably has to do with the closed H5 low almost overhead despite the strongest baroclinicity pushed well to the east. Some members must be popping a low closer to the coast before a rapid transition/redevelopment further east. Either way, looking at the sensitivity plots a further west surface track occurs if the H5 trough is deeper and centered further WSW with enhanced upstream and downstream ridging (not a big surprise). The features to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs are the phase of the northeast Pacific ridge (sensitivities on the upstream side) and the amplitude of ridging across northern Quebec. Unfortunately there doesn't appear to much of a coherent signal that we can track from now forward to see how models are verifying. Ideally, we would be able to compare something like the higher heights over Canada to tonight's 00z balloon launches. However, those higher heights moves out into the Atlantic and disappear. Seems like possibly higher heights over AK tomorrow night could be important to watch for a farther west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It is natural to focus on BOS metro for 3 reasons right now...1.) they have the densest population in this forum...2.) They (back to about ORH and 20 miles eithe side) has the highest snowpack in the state...3) They are in one of the highest impact locations for this storm as currently modeled #3 can change for sure, but that is why there is a lot of focus for that region. If you are in central MA you are certainly looking good too..CT should be fine. Nobody is trying to "Steal your snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For reference the long term is rarely, if ever, updated during the intermediate hours with new forecast information. The near/short term is updated every 3 hours or so, so the long term will always be the previous shift's version until the main package is issued. I'm used to seeing the main package between 3 and 4 so the 1:24 update was just a bit later than usual perhaps. Because it was after the Euro and GEFS and GGEM and UK, I was all weenied up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Kevin is already in defense mode because best banding might be east of him It could be over him, it could be in NNE...it's early to claim the "winner". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. Oh the tears you were crying just 3 weeks ago...look at you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 .CT should be fine. Nobody is trying to "Steal your snow". You sure? web cam capture near Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor.Exactly. It's bad enough when we've got 3 or 4 of the same folks in and around BOS doing it.. Add in PF and it's just nauseating. It's affecting everyone here. Discuss all regions . Not just one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah...we're going to start canning the useless and exceptionally weenie posts. Some of this stuff is unreadable. Unfortunately it's only a few. Carry on though and let's have fun, but keep it to science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That makes me sick too. Just have to be in awe and sitback and watch things evolve. Yeah...I'm rooting for BOS at this point because we never will see this again. Might as well maximize the potential. Also easy for me as this has been the best month of skiing up here in many years. Some are getting antsy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Exactly. It's bad enough when we've fot 3 or 4 of the same folks in and around BOS doing it.. Add in PF and it's just nauseating. It's affecring everyone here That's not what I mean though. Anyways, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I feel like this one will tic nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am enjoying it, but the whole "this is mine..gimme gimme.." seems to be working its way into the board demeanor. I'm going to come and take all your snow. Watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It is natural to focus on BOS metro for 3 reasons right now...1.) they have the densest population in this forum...2.) They (back to about ORH and 20 miles eithe side) has the highest snowpack in the state region...3) They are in one of the highest impact locations for this storm as currently modeled #3 can change for sure, but that is why there is a lot of focus for that region. If you are in central MA you are certainly looking good too..CT should be fine. Nobody is trying to "Steal your snow". FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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