Morch Madness Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I would say there is a good chance for at least 40"-50" May be a bit conservative considering 12"/hour rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Man, if that pans out, the ridiculously far-fetched idea of someone pulling 100" in 30 days suddenly seems quite obtainable…Wow... Even BOS at 70.5 since 1/24. 12 days to get to 100. If BOS overperforms as it did in the past couple of storms and the 12Z Euroverifies, well, it's really one big storm or a couple of dink-and-dunks away from happening. Which would be unbelievable, quite literally, since '96 was the only 100+ year and it took until April to top that one off. Fun facts: 70.5 is more than all but 11 of the past 122 winters. In barely two weeks. Also working on one of the longer streaks (since 1936 when reporting was moved to BOS) below 40 (23 and counting, record is 38) and could get a long streak of 32 or below if the storms stay off the coast (record 16 days). So not much melting going down. Sun angle will start to melt the snow soon, but with that pack, it will take a while. And the longer you go in to the spring, the more chance for a big rainstorm to give you serious flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 May be a bit conservative considering 12"/hour rates We can always go higher if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think 30" is possible within the duration of the storm (24 hours). "It's not happening James." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Alright, we can reel in the hyperbole...keep this thread somewhat scientific. There's no need to discuss 4-6" per hour rates on a storm that isn't even certain to slam the region yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Why can't this one produce 30", duration is progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Eric Fisher says every single euro ensemble member is over a foot for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hull Ma , heres a link to watch if you have tidal concerns http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=72-96&type=&stn= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seems as if more members are nw rather than se of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM shows a well developed baroclinic zone ahead of the main shortwave over the OH Valley at hour 69. Precip breaks out over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Why can't this one produce 30", duration is progressive? Yes...I mean it could produce 30"...but that is such an extreme value, so you are not going to start predicting that on a storm that lasts under 24h. At the very least, wait until we are much closer to start throwing around historic amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seems as if more members are nw rather than se of the mean cluster is definitely west or sw, hyperbole aside, prepare Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Even the NAM at it's la-la-land range looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Will do Will. I will take into account that duration is not the same as the Blizzard of 2015 or 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Eric Fisher says every single euro ensemble member is over a foot for Boston Not sure how that's realistic given the placement of a couple of the members in that composite posted above. This does not stop, however, my turgid erection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Even the NAM at it's la-la-land range looks good Yep, H5 closes off in pretty much the same spot at the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z NAM shows precipitation explosion at hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That is going to be a bomb a rama on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Totally jMHO, but theres something about bowling ball closed lows that models seem to be able to latch on enmasse and provide similar solutions. I am all in on this one and if it fails my bad but until it does I can not stress enough how impactful this is on a city/urban area of millions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice to see a strong solution from the Euro as we get closer in. Would build confidence if the ensembles support it before they become less of an important tool at killin' range. It would be nice if some of the western ensembles were showing Schenectady getting blasted. QPF Queens: >1.00" from ASH-ORH-CT/RI border and eastward....includes all of coastal Maine. 0.75" line is about from roughly Old Lyme-Tolland-Keene, NH-CON-IZG 0.50" line is basically I-91 eastward but bends back NE around LEB up through MWN and Sunday River that blows. Congrats again, Beantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 cluster is definitely west or sw, hyperbole aside, prepare Jay I'm not so good with tidal stuff. This winter is proving I need to invest some time in it. How are we looking for coastal flooding? I saw that chart you just posted but it looks like it only goes right up till the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes...I mean it could produce 30"...but that is such an extreme value, so you are not going to start predicting that on a storm that lasts under 24h. At the very least, wait until we are much closer to start throwing around historic amounts. For a Sunday storm, you begin to look at the finer details on Friday. Right now we're just dealing with one run -- the 12z suite of guidance -- and gaining confidence that there will be a significant impact. Will Scooter die? Well, in time, all of you will die. But Will's right; we should be patient before discussing exactly HOW Scooter will die in the coming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Totally jMHO, but theres something about bowling ball closed lows that models seem to be able to latch on enmasse and provide similar solutions. I am all in on this one and if it fails my bad but until it does I can not stress enough how impactful this is on a city/urban area of millions I think it's a lot easier for us to be confident with 5mb 7mb 850mb and surface tracks all ideal for SNE. Even the models maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Closer to about 18000' give or take. It depends how cold or warm the atmosphere is. MWObs at 6288' usually reports ±800mb, and Lakes of the Clouds just below there (~5000') often verifies 850mb temperatures pretty well (having spent time in ice fog there while the valleys below were partly cloudy in the 50s). Planes usually fly at about 250 mb level (30000+ feet), so if you're looking to see if a flight (transcons, especially) will be early or late based on the jet stream those are usually the maps to look at. Which is how you get 7 hour flights to the West Coast (or carriers flying 320s or 737s having to stop for fuel on the way out) and 4:30 flights back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Totally jMHO, but theres something about bowling ball closed lows that models seem to be able to latch on enmasse and provide similar solutions. I am all in on this one and if it fails my bad but until it does I can not stress enough how impactful this is on a city/urban area of millions Deep closed 5H lows going south of SNE always deserve to be watched closely...it's like a Commandment of SNE wx forecasting. I know this was mentioned yesterday when the storm didn't look nearly as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looked like most members were S of LI with the SLP. Would not be a bad track. Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity plots are pretty neat to look at. Positional uncertainty (mainly west) seems to account for a large portion of the spread for 12z GEFS. Largest mslp spread in the vicinity of NYC probably has to do with the closed H5 low almost overhead despite the strongest baroclinicity pushed well to the east. Some members must be popping a low closer to the coast before a rapid transition/redevelopment further east. Either way, looking at the sensitivity plots a further west surface track occurs if the H5 trough is deeper and centered further WSW with enhanced upstream and downstream ridging (not a big surprise). The features to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs are the phase of the northeast Pacific ridge (sensitivities on the upstream side) and the amplitude of ridging across northern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes...I mean it could produce 30"...but that is such an extreme value, so you are not going to start predicting that on a storm that lasts under 24h. At the very least, wait until we are much closer to start throwing around historic amounts. So, you're saying this isn't Twitter. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hull Ma , heres a link to watch if you have tidal concerns http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=72-96&type=&stn= Steve, how is the atronomical aspect this Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 James is off the hook! Keep in mind that nam has you above freezing at 84 hours with a well defined cf well west of you. Hey maybe you get 47 inches but the cape had some early bl issues on the euro as well. Don't be blind to the flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM says Cape Cod gets dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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