BRSno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM says Cape Cod gets dry slotted. NAM doing NAM things @ 84h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So much talk about BOX.....but what about ORH, PVD, Springfield (sorry forgot that station abbreviation )........I mean what about the places that really count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Steve, how is the atronomical aspect this Sunday? We anticipate the Bunion Moon this weekend, but her scurf will not shed at the ideal time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Umm weathafella, remember the models showed the same thing with the Blizzard of 2015 aka Juno, and looked what happened we got nothing but snow and a whole lot of it, 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 James is off the hook! Keep in mind that nam has you above freezing at 84 hours with a well defined cf well west of you. Hey maybe you get 47 inches but the cape had some early bl issues on the euro as well. Don't be blind to the flags. God hates flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So much talk about BOX.....but what about ORH, PVD, Springfield (sorry forgot that station abbreviation )........I mean what about the places that really count? Actually ORH, PVD and Springfield all are within BOX's grids BOX is Taunton NWS WFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Deep closed 5H lows going south of SNE always deserve to be watched closely...it's like a Commandment of SNE wx forecasting. I know this was mentioned yesterday when the storm didn't look nearly as good. I didn't even look until I saw Phils tweet as I had lots going on but when I had the time and saw last nights 0z gFS my laptop was pinned to the ceiling. Just totally in awe and its not my back yard that awes me its the EMA look, holy cow. I thought 3 KUs this year just not in 21 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So much talk about BOX.....but what about ORH, PVD, Springfield (sorry forgot that station abbreviation )........I mean what about the places that really count? You mean BOS, I believe. BOX is Taunton. Anyhow this is one of the worst-veiled my backyard inquiries ever. 50 points Gryffindor... for sheer brass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Alright, giddy up! Finally good trends from NYC-BOS-NORTH. Lets hope this trends even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM doesn't show any precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Umm weathafella, remember the models showed the same thing with the Blizzard of 2015 aka Juno, and looked what happened we got nothing but snow and a whole lot of it, 30" James, they didn't show that in 2005...I remember that well. Hanging your hat on well they were wrong before is not good forecasting. Then again, Cape Cod,MA sits near the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM doesn't show any precip type issues. How does NAM look for NYC, LI. The NYC thread is quiet atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So much talk about BOX.....but what about ORH, PVD, Springfield (sorry forgot that station abbreviation )........I mean what about the places that really count? Well, KBAF, I guess. Maybe KBDL? But we all know the place that really counts on this board is KMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Steve, how is the atronomical aspect this Sunday? Tides are moderate say 10.5. to 11 feet, the largest being Monday, the fetch is enormous but due to quick movement the number of tides is limited but certainly this has potential with big gusts near hurricane force out there to be very impactful for the ocean front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nam is useless @hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think it's a lot easier for us to be confident with 5mb 7mb 850mb and surface tracks all ideal for SNE. Even the models maybe? You mean BOS, I believe. BOX is Taunton. Anyhow this is one of the worst-veiled my backyard inquiries ever. 50 points Gryffindor... for sheer brass. Great I need those points after the hit I took earlier from weathafella. And there are some folks who think Taunton is the most important place on earth...even though I did mean BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity plots are pretty neat to look at. Positional uncertainty (mainly west) seems to account for a large portion of the spread for 12z GEFS. Largest mslp spread in the vicinity of NYC probably has to do with the closed H5 low almost overhead despite the strongest baroclinicity pushed well to the east. Some members must be popping a low closer to the coast before a rapid transition/redevelopment further east. Either way, looking at the sensitivity plots a further west surface track occurs if the H5 trough is deeper and centered further WSW with enhanced upstream and downstream ridging (not a big surprise). The features to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs are the phase of the northeast Pacific ridge (sensitivities on the upstream side) and the amplitude of ridging across northern Quebec. Yes, by toggling height differences, you can see how the ridging in the Pacific really has an effect on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Great I need those points after the hit I took earlier from weatherfella Oh, sorry. I forgot to inform you. You're a Hufflepuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It would be nice if some of the western ensembles were showing Schenectady getting blasted. that blows. Congrats again, Beantown. Schenectady is a banned word per Management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 BOX should begin rolling out their afternoon products update shortly... looking forward to the discussion but have a feeling they may keep their thinking close to the vest for now re: Sunday, plenty of time to roll up the sleeves and get dirty with that between now and alleged start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Tides are moderate say 10.5. to 11 feet, the largest being Monday, the fetch is enormous but due to quick movement the number of tides is limited but certainly this has potential with big gusts near hurricane force out there to be very impactful for the ocean front. Ah, wasn't far off then. Seemed to look that way on the tidal charts but wasn't sure of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Schenectady is a banned word per Management. Well, I didn't pull it out of my ass. I could have said Albany. I can smell the exhaust already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 BOX should begin rolling out their afternoon products update shortly... looking forward to the discussion but have a feeling they may keep their thinking close to the vest for now re: Sunday, plenty of time to roll up the sleeves and get dirty with that between now and alleged start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, it could go bonkers over the eastern half. Absolute bombogenesis with crashing pressures and intense gradient to the west. Precip would just explode over the east in this scenario. It's pretty damn exciting. The blizzard of 15' (or we should just refer to it as the first blizz now) was sort of up in the air about locating the death band. That was a different type of track though. Now consider this; has there ever been a high impact event like this one with the current snowpack already otg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 is this what helps pull the precip back further west? It is essentially a branch of the warm conveyor belt that has been cut off of the main show. Graphics to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Tides are moderate say 10.5. to 11 feet, the largest being Monday, the fetch is enormous but due to quick movement the number of tides is limited but certainly this has potential with big gusts near hurricane force out there to be very impactful for the ocean front.Nice. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, it could go bonkers over the eastern half. Absolute bombogenesis with crashing pressures and intense gradient to the west. Precip would just explode over the east in this scenario. It's pretty damn exciting. The blizzard of 15' (or we should just refer to it as the first blizz now) was sort of up in the air about locating the death band. That was a different type of track though. Now consider this; has there ever been a high impact event like this one with the current snowpack already otg? Jay no one here has seen it, 47-48? maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, it could go bonkers over the eastern half. Absolute bombogenesis with crashing pressures and intense gradient to the west. Precip would just explode over the east in this scenario. It's pretty damn exciting. The blizzard of 15' (or we should just refer to it as the first blizz now) was sort of up in the air about locating the death band. That was a different type of track though. Now consider this; has there ever been a high impact event like this one with the current snowpack already otg? I'm pretty sure we know the answer to be "no," at least when considering the qualifier of a populated area. Where is Don Sutherland? I chuckled, guffawed, even -- some witnesses say -- chortled when he suggested this winter in its entirety be considered the new Great Snow. If Sunday pans out, it's less unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, it could go bonkers over the eastern half. Absolute bombogenesis with crashing pressures and intense gradient to the west. Precip would just explode over the east in this scenario. It's pretty damn exciting. The blizzard of 15' (or we should just refer to it as the first blizz now) was sort of up in the air about locating the death band. That was a different type of track though. Now consider this; has there ever been a high impact event like this one with the current snowpack already otg? Yes. 298 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, it could go bonkers over the eastern half. Absolute bombogenesis with crashing pressures and intense gradient to the west. Precip would just explode over the east in this scenario. It's pretty damn exciting. The blizzard of 15' (or we should just refer to it as the first blizz now) was sort of up in the air about locating the death band. That was a different type of track though. Now consider this; has there ever been a high impact event like this one with the current snowpack already otg? Its not an ENE only event. We have lots of posters all over the region that are going to get hit hard with this. We've had many people ask that the focus not always be on Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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