Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 BOX 4pm AFD LATE SAT INTO SUN...AS WAS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY...IT WAS WISE NOT TO GIVE UP ONANOTHER DOUBLE BARREL SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS PERIOD.ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO THE STORM FORTOMORROW...WITH A CLIPPER SHIFTING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING MIDATLANTIC STORM...IT APPEARS THE ENSEMBLES WERE MORE PRECISE WITHTHE HIGH AMPLITUDE ARCTIC TROF. MODELS INDICATE A DEEP TROP FOLDWHERE THE 2.0 DYNAMIC TROP REACHES AS LOW AS 550HPA AND THE 1.5 ASLOW AS 750HPA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE COLD AND VERY AMPLIFIEDPOTENTIAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS IS LIKELY JUST TOO FAR NSO WILL BE FAVORING THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCEWITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER VERYSTRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING VERY CLOSE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THETROP FOLD SUGGESTS VERY STRONG WAVELENGTH COMPRESSION WITH THE LOWDEEPENING FROM 990S TO LOW 970S IN 12 HOURS S OF THE REGION. THISIS COLD...SO ONCE AGAIN P-TYPE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO ALLSNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM SHY OF 0.5 IN THE W TO AS MUCH AS 0.75TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE E. RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ABOVETHE 10 TO 1 STANDARD GIVEN THE COLD AIR AND VERY ROBUST UPWARDMOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN...INCLUDING THE DENDRITE REGION.THEREFORE...PLOWABLE SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OFANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AKIN TO SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS WEHAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE E HALF OF THEREGION BUT EXACT AXES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.POTENTIALLY A 50-60 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG WINDS CAN/TBE RULED OUT HERE EITHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARDCONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO SOMETHING OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY ATCOASTAL AREAS WHERE RATIOS WOULD BE LOWER.THIS JET ALSO MEANS THE NEED TO WATCH TIDES. SUN AM HIGH TIDE IS10.1 IN BOS BUT WILL NOT HAVE HAD A LONG PERIOD OF FETCH ALTHOUGHIF THIS LOW DEEPENS AS RAPIDLY AS POTENTIALLY FORECAST...SOMEMINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT SURGE AT THISMOMENT IS LIKELY TO ACTUALLY PEAK DURING LOW TIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think it's ok to discuss different models and solutions that aren't as favorable. I feel like when you mention something that isn't snowy, people come at you with "oh that's not the same situation" or "oh the GFS doesn't handle this or that well." There should not be pressure to only mention snowy scenarios and I feel like that is a problem. It's ok. Weather will do what weather does.Of course it's ok to discuss, but what Mets are asking is just don't base forecasts on them.. Especially when they are outliers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That was the big time bias when it was Nogaps but now the Navgem doesn't seem to be nearly as pronounced in that direction. It's a much better model than it was 2 years ago. It was one of the early latchers on of the 1/26-7/2015 blizzard. Thanks for the response, Jerry. Methinks this would be a good weekend for me to go back to Maine and visit the in-laws. Um.........maybe not. 19.4/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM in case it wasn't posted for the region Now that's what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow. Aggressive, strongly worded AFD from BOX...especially for eastern areas. Hopefully we gain some confidence for folks w of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Now that's what I'm talking about. That's a 168 HR map, though.... so it includes precip from systems outside the realm of the storm this thread is for, presumably Tues-Wed impact. Muddies the waters a bit if you're just trying to look at the Sunday threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Steve, honest question. Why is this late-blooming Miller B so vastly different from the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At the beginning of this season it was said in many circles that we would have basically the same type of winter the MW did last year, along those lines the upcoming progs bear striking resemblance to the Jan 5th 6h blizzard which ravaged the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think it's ok to discuss different models and solutions that aren't as favorable. I feel like when you mention something that isn't snowy, people come at you with "oh that's not the same situation" or "oh the GFS doesn't handle this or that well." There should not be pressure to only mention snowy scenarios and I feel like that is a problem. It's ok. Weather will do what weather does. Yeah there usually is a quick retort to anything non-snowy...even when you were mentioning the Wednesday event earlier there was stuff resistance at even the notion of anything other than snow. Just don't base forecasts off the non-snowy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's a 168 HR map, though.... so it includes precip from systems outside the realm of the storm this thread is for, presumably Tues-Wed impact. Muddies the waters a bit if you're just trying to look at the Sunday threat. Most of the snow on that graphic north of I-84 comes from next week's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Of course it's ok to discuss, but what Mets are asking is just don't base forecasts on them.. Especially when they are outliers I didn't see forecasts, but it's far enough out so that you can't always throw a solution out, even if someone like myself thinks the euro is closer to correct. If the euro hedges to the GFS, that changes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Why is this late-blooming Miller B so vastly different from the blizzard?That thing sort of came off the coast further south and then tracked north ... this one is coming off the coast further north and tracking east. Different aloft too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is the map Kevin should of thrown up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Harvey honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 BOX 4pm AFD Said it to Ocean State= Ozone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like that 12z GGEM snow map, favors Cape Cod, MA for all snow and 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That thing sort of came off the coast further south and then tracked north ... this one is coming off the coast further north and tracking east. Different aloft too. This is a northern stream clipper. Initially dry. Takes a while to wrap in atlantic moisture and the upper wave is traversing relatively fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That thing sort of came off the coast further south and then tracked north ... this one is coming off the coast further north and tracking east. Different aloft too. In the model world it's similar though in that models are struggling with how fast it develops. In that scheme it's not that much different and Messenger has noted several times this season how the EURO can be too quick to bomb out. It may be fine this time, but the idea is when does it develop and what model will be best at figuring that out. Is it quick near Long Island, or is it Gulf of Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I didn't see forecasts, but it's far enough out so that you can't always throw a solution out, even if someone like myself thinks the euro is closer to correct. If the euro hedges to the GFS, that changes things.What about when the GFS hedges twds all other guidance as all other guidance moves Sw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like that 12z GGEM snow map, favors Cape Cod, MA for all snow and 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Steve, honest question. Why is this late-blooming Miller B so vastly different from the blizzard? 500 mb pattern is vastly different. If I recall correctly, the trough in the blizzard dug down close to Florida whereas this never gets south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 In the model world it's similar though in that models are struggling with how fast it develops. In that scheme it's not that much different and Messenger has noted several times this season how the EURO can be too quick to bomb out. It may be fine this time, but the idea is when does it develop and what model will be best at figuring that out. Is it quick near Long Island, or is it Gulf of Maine? Thats why I'm a bit hesitant to jump all in at this time. That difference isn't all that big in the grand scheme, at this range. However, it has huge impacts on sensible weather in this area. Difference between a crushing storm and a light to moderate event. Tempering expectations until at least 00z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Where is Messanger, Cweat, Rollo, Clinch, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Said it to Ocean State= Ozone Maybe I'll dig up an image for that. Much more exciting than tracking OES clouds over my marine zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 He's racked up enough today to open a stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Steve, honest question. Why is this late-blooming Miller B so vastly different from the blizzard? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20150126.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 In the model world it's similar though in that models are struggling with how fast it develops. In that scheme it's not that much different and Messenger has noted several times this season how the EURO can be too quick to bomb out. It may be fine this time, but the idea is when does it develop and what model will be best at figuring that out. Is it quick near Long Island, or is it Gulf of Maine? 522 closing off as it approached from a deep trough 498 closed off 600 miles to the NW. Model timing on ULL feature closing off in the blizzard affected eventual SW timing and position, this one is closed off and consistent on timing, other than minor SW placement ENS are clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Where is Messanger, Cweat, Rollo, Clinch, Scott? Last I heard he said two misses, wonder if that changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The reason I am so bullish is this puppy is closed off in Northern Canada and comes down bowling ball style. Said it last night I don"t give a rats arse if I JP, that setup is wild, look at the damn lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What about when the GFS hedges twds all other guidance as all other guidance moves Sw? Yes that is your hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.