mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well I would say you want one that is established. It's also similar to what a CCB is..a conveyor belt of moisture that rides up and up along a sloped thermal surfaces (known as potential temp or theta surfaces). Every storm has one, but this was well defined. Anyways, it's a detail not to be weenie'd out on 4 days out...was just noting a very cool thing. well a good feature for those in the far interior like me. one more cycle and my flight is booked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, 12"/hour rates are hard to come by, but 6"/hour are more attainable. Hundred mph winds are hard too. But 75-85mph are not. With a sub 975mb benchmark tracking storm, a foot and a half would be the least of your worries. Going to have to bust out the cannon for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Man hopefully we can trend It southwest some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Man hopefully we can trend It southwest someDude the setup is a blizzard from Nyc north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Dude the setup is a blizzard from Nyc north east You better hope it slows down and captures somewhat. It favors eastern mass (obviously). I think many verify blizz criteria though. That backside gradient means business. CCB would be ferocious over eastern portions. Near ideal mid level tracks. Just the definition of a bomb. Could be ideal scenario for major snow storm really if modeling continues to hammer the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like EC op and ensembles close together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You better hope it slows down and captures somewhat. It favors eastern mass (obviously). I think many verify blizz criteria though. That backside gradient means business. CCB would be ferocious over eastern portions. Near ideal mid level tracks. Just the definition of a bomb. Could be ideal scenario for major snow storm really if modeling continues to hammer the idea.It doesn't have to slow down at all. It's fine where it is but it's probably not done trending Sw to get jersey and Nyc in the thick of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like EC op and ensembles close together. That's a significant step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It doesn't have to slow down at all. It's fine where it is but it's probably not done trending Sw to get jersey and Nyc in the thick of it It sort of favored against Jersey and NYC. I could see it doing well for your hood and maybe Hartford on east. It seems like it's naturally unlikely for it to be as impressive for them as it won't go bonkers until it hits the Atlantic waters. Maybe the real bombing starts over your head as the storm matures and comes together. I could see that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, pretty similar to OP for the placement of the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It doesn't have to slow down at all. It's fine where it is but it's probably not done trending Sw to get jersey and Nyc in the thick of itBomboleviticus, incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's a significant step. The train is rolling into the station. Tickets are being purchased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The train is rolling into the station. Tickets are being purchased. Hope the mbta isn't running the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The train is rolling into the station. Tickets are being purchased. Not on the mbta, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Damn if the ensemble mean and op are on par with one another, confidence increases exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hope the mbta isn't running the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Having the ensembles similar is nice.... But to caution... How did the gfs ensembles look for tomorrow's system at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Having the ensembles similar is nice.... But to caution... How did the gfs ensembles look for tomorrow's system at this range. The GEFS Ensm look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Having the ensembles similar is nice.... But to caution... How did the gfs ensembles look for tomorrow's system at this range. the systems are not the same, this is a much healthier beast at h5 than the lead shortwave, this main shortwave trough closes off at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like EC op and ensembles close together. They looked pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think this is game on for the eastern portions of SNE for a pretty high impact event. There is an impressive consensus. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GEFS Ensm look nice. Most of the GEFS members favored northern areas I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 the systems are not the same, this is a much healthier beast at h5 than the lead shortwave, this main shortwave trough closes off at h5. Sorry...H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 H5 = 500mb = mid levels of the atmosphere 30,000 feet in altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 H5 = 500mb = mid levels of the atmosphere 30,000 feet in altitude. Closer to about 18000' give or take. It depends how cold or warm the atmosphere is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Gotcha...thanks all for being patient with me Really is pretty neat watching you guys "work" this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Oh really that low? 18,000 feet, my bad I thought it was 30,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Most of the GEFS members favored northern areas I thought. Looked like most members were S of LI with the SLP. Would not be a bad track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Guess it'll be interesting to see what the 18Z GFS does in relation to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 One more quick stupid question (last one for the day) can someone break down the Z times quick in relation to EST? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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