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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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Winter may not be great there, but summer certainly has its compensations. Beautiful beaches, the occasional side swipe from an occluding hurricane, etc. Do you fish? Great spots for blues in Fishers Island Sound. 

Westerly is an absolute jewel in the summer, winters suck although he has more otg than they have had since 2011

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Meanwhile we are perfectly normal here..carrying on how all sane people do

Favorite post of the season because it is So true. We just expect 60" in 18 days and have a 30" Snowpack with Zyons of cold in sight. We are Bad. Baaaaad bad Weenies.

And that GFS map there seems much higher than the map on NCEP. I guess closer up is different? And I've never known that?

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Fascinated by how models handle this energy currently over the Pacific... and as I've posted earlier today, will not be surprised to see coastal low depiction change dramatically as this approaches the West Coast Saturday. We've seen the 18z GFS trend towards a more robust coastal, let's see what the 0z suite does.

 

The impact of the "data-poor environment" sampling resulted in dramatic forecast changes for Monday storms 2 weeks in a row. Let's see how this unfolds...

 

This is the vorticity that contributes to our coastal Monday:

post-3106-0-33416700-1423264155_thumb.gi

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Panic is really going to set in. General public has had enough.

I agree. I'm here in western CT where we may only end up with 6 to 8, but Home Depot looked like the rapture was upon us earlier today. People are at their end, and I can already see the beginnings of mass hysteria and mental breakdowns.

Anyway, liking the GFS, it has that nice band almost touching me, coming down from the Berks.

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Fascinated by how models handle this energy currently over the Pacific... and as I've posted earlier today, will not be surprised to see coastal low depiction change dramatically as this approaches the West Coast Saturday. We've seen the 18z GFS trend towards a more robust coastal, let's see what the 0z suite does.

 

The impact of the "data-poor environment" sampling resulted in dramatic forecast changes for Monday storms 2 weeks in a row. Let's see how this unfolds...

 

This is the vorticity that contributes to our coastal Monday:

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_015_500_vort_ht_18z_sat03z.gif

 

I annotated that exact same thing the other day, too -- 

 

Not sure folks are really interested in understand "why" this stuff happens, though.  There does seem to be more interest in the suppling from the epicosity teet, and admiring eye-popping modeled numbers.   I say that not as a dig -- folks are into it for whatever fancies them. But the substantive analysis, I have found, tends to get ignored.   

 

What, think?   American??!  Just get 'em off.  That's what it's all about.  

 

Annnyway, the other aspect that I covered a while ago and heard 0 acknowledgement that it was even read (go wonder), is that this system's peculiar structure of having very steep elevated frontal slope where the arctic air mass/ +PP abuts the pre-existing environment over the upper MA, means that inflow above the llvs will be directed very upright... That is an assist where we won't need wildly potent jet mechanics to force lift.  

 

I've seen system where weak profiling and modeled structure over performed; this just smacks of one of those times.  I guess we'll see.. 

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