40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z GGEM looked a shade east of the 0z run, Not the direction one would like to see at this stage I figured as much....that 00z run was best case, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yeah and the 12z euro will be very telling, but I wouldn't write this off until 0z. I think most of E ma has a great shot at a warning event. I think advisory event it is, after hearing of the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 I figured as much....that 00z run was best case, imo. Would have been better if it held serve no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Would have been better if it held serve no doub't The Euro should, realistically, "cave" a bit and shift east at 12z, based on what we've seen from 12z's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It also wasn't a good sign that the euro ens were east of the op, so I think 12z keeps ticking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Canadian is almost dead nuts with 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ukie isn't that enthused either...it's got decent overrunning...esp for CNE, but that last second coastal is probably a tick east of 00z...again, this is shaping up as an advisory event or lower to me. We just need a better western ridge than what is present in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 looks like 2-4" that's OK, I'm hoping Monday will be the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It also wasn't a good sign that the euro ens were east of the op, so I think 12z keeps ticking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monday is a big whiff south on the 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It would tap you too, to the tune of about 2-4. I think the 12z euro moves a little more toward the mean; we just haven't seen enough amplified solutions -- consistently or otherwise -- across the guidance options to think it's a realistic outcome yet/by this time. Glancing blow seems to be the idea. That said, I have literally nowhere to put another 4" of snow if we get it. So, say what you will about "advisory level," it's a high impact to me with relatively low accumulations. This is actually quite true... It's no different than Dallas' NWS issuing a winter storm warning for 3-5" of snow and .10 ice, when that's advisory for Albany. It's a matter of relative impact -- same in a situation like now. Roof loading is an issue for those structures that didn't benefit as much from scarping winds. It is gentle fluff, but as Brian also correctly intimated ...even fluff starts to add up when pressing down 12" events cyclically... Then if it did rain, woah. But yeah, 3-5" might be considerable as a warning for much of the area do to the immense civil engineering task at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's a fast flow regime again ... albeit transient, it would appear. Much of earlier January was freak show of wind velocity in the L/W and it wouldn't allow in situ S/W any room to amp up. Shear fest as it were.... But, the flow relaxed and the blizzard immediately broke.... This last event was really more of an NJ model low, as it's deepening and production was more longitudinal than N-S. The storm for Monday isn't dead in my mind, because ...the flow starts to relax, and when that does, there are two aspects more 50,000 foot conceptual in nature to contend with. 1) There will be a lot of cold air around, and baroclinic zones will have good thermal packing to offer steepish frontal slopes and so forth.. Comparatively weaker mid level jet perturbations can over-perform when there is sharper frontal tapestry. 2) The flow remains, overall, in a +PNAP ...probably instructed by the ongoing and erstwhile +PNA. Which means ... correction vector is toward more western ridge than less. These two base-line factors mean that anything in the middle/extended range modeled is actually doing so during a gamblers hot streak (so to speak..). The pattern is powder-keg. I am also willing to hunch that barring any details ...those deep amplitude extended range GFS ideas have more legs than usual, too. Buuut, this post probably belongs in the Pattern thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monday is a big whiff south on the 12z GGEM consistent with hpc this morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Disappointing runs, winter had knocked most mass municipalities to the matt and around the 7 count appears to be letting us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 looks like 2-4" that's OK, I'm hoping Monday will be the big one Yea, someone just text me asking about the weekend because they heard another 8" Friday and 20" on Sunday I said 2-5" Friday, and too early to know about Sunday, but that I'd take the under on 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 consistent with hpc this morn No one should be surprised. I posted last night RE how it was time for climo to intervene, and convert some of these threats to failures. This just isn't supposed to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Disappointing runs, winter had knocked most mass municipalities to the matt and around the 7 count appears to be letting us up. What is disappointing? I'm confused by what people are seeing/expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Disappointing runs, winter had knocked most mass municipalities to the matt and around the 7 count appears to be letting us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Were/Are some expecting 8-12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS trended decently for Thursday's event, and for Mondays event it shows a nice Snowstorm for the area as well...albeit it's still six days out. Not so bad imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What is disappointing? I'm confused by what people are seeing/expecting. I figured the sarcasm was clear. That being said, i would like all homes buried up to their roofs. So models backing off on 80" of snow in 14 days saddens me. Nobody expects it lol, but we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There was nothing climo about last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Another nickel/dime event (well, let's call it a nickel) for GC. Okay add for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why sarcasm? The runs were dissapointing...we all wanted to see another 6-12" Friday, and another 10-20" Monday. Did we expect it? Different concept.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why sarcasm? The runs were dissapointing...we all wanted to see another 6-12" Friday, and another 10-20" Monday. Did we expect it? Different concept.... Yea..this had a chance to be a big dog a day or two ago..now we are converging on a 2-4", 3-6" type deal. I'll take it, but agreed its a bit disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'll take 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Wow. Bunch of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think some of us thought we were on a continuiing historic role. I think we are in the midst of something that could be epic and it will resume with a big storm later next week (after these 2 pedestrian events), we will then pause and reload for a grand finale late fb to mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why sarcasm? The runs were dissapointing...we all wanted to see another 6-12" Friday, and another 10-20" Monday. Did we expect it? Different concept.... Yes, Totally different concept that some gloss over. I never bought into either event so i guess it is semantics but i was just elated at the chance for all towns to be crippled, but alas just sorta like "awww man" that would have been great, where as i reserve disappointment for getting shafted in imminent storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Wow. Bunch of weenies. Ok, you don't want to see any more big storms...got it. I'ts one thing to meltdown and clutter threads because of it, but I don't see the issue with expressing mild dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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