dryslot Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Seeing the models are coming around to a significant event, Its time for a thread dedicated to this threat........Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looking at the Euro ens, the mean looks nice, but there are quite a few amped up members in there that are rain for eastern areas and that's screwing with the mean QPF. Generally the split is between something like the op Euro and something like the GGEM/NAM. As of right now I'd lean toward the latter scenario, but even another 3-5/4-6 is going to cause a lot of problems for areas that have 30-40+ OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 If the GFS joins the party, I leave Savannah on Thursday and come home for a few days. Gotta rake the roof (is what I am telling the him) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 If the GFS joins the party, I leave Savannah on Thursday and come home for a few days. Gotta rake the roof (is what I am telling the him) The GFS was better at 12z, I think it will slowly come around like it has on these last few events, And yes, The roof rake is coming out after this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hum, GFS definitely looking like it's going to come NW through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z GFS looks to make another step in the right direction as it should be west of the 12z run but still has work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hum, GFS definitely looking like it's going to come NW through 66. Its is better then 12z somewhat, But not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Its is better then 12z, But not there yet Yeah but it's ticking in the right direction, that's what matters. Verbatim widespread 1-3" for SNE which would be a nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Tic ... tic ... tic ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 So i just took a look at the 12z GFS and I do think we'll see a correction towards a Euro/GGEM type scenario. I've enclosed the 500mb maps for the 66 and 78h panels. I've circled the southern stream vorts. As you can see in the 1st image on the left the vort is pretty potent and in the 2nd image it's barely discernible. We've seen this in the past with the GFS where it makes these southerns stream vorts disappear. It's what we all refer to as the SE bias of the GFS. So we should begin to see a correction in the upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 So i just took a look at the 12z GFS and I do think we'll see a correction towards a Euro/GGEM type scenario. I've enclosed the 500mb maps for the 66 and 78h panels. I've circled the southern stream vorts. As you can see in the 1st image on the left the vort is pretty potent and in the 2nd image it's barely discernible. We've seen this in the past with the GFS where it makes these southerns stream vorts disappear. It's what we all refer to as the SE bias of the GFS. So we should begin to see a correction in the upcoming runs. 12z GFS 500Mb.GIF Euro Ops or Euro ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 So where are we at this point? Tell me where I am wrong: Euro is a crusher for GC to ORH to Dendrite to Jeff with changeover risks in SNE UK is similar to Euro but not such a crusher. GGEM is the same. NAM is a light SNE event but trending nw GFS is a light SNE event but trending nw Not in range yet for RGEM. Anyone know how the JMA is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 How'd Ukie look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 How'd Ukie look? Its been amped, this would be 2 events in a row the UKIE was the first to catch onto the trend if it ends up right. It was closer to the coast before the Euro jumped on it last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think will mentioned in the model thread that the Ukie would be a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Crusher for ORH? What about BOX, HFD, PVD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro Ops or Euro ensemble? I feel the Op Euro went phase happy and over-amplified it. That's a know bias we've seen with the Euro in addition to it holding back energy in the SW US. I'm just point out that we should see a correction back West with the GFS on this potential. The 12z Euro Mean would be a sweet track right now for a lot of us but we don't know if that is even correct right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ok, so... Euro and UK both hits, Euro ensembles better for SNE than the Op, with less mixing - yes? GGEM is good not great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ok, so... Euro and UK both hits, Euro ensembles better for SNE than the Op, with less mixing - yes? GGEM is good not great? GGEM is widespread 4-6", call that what you will. Overall though that's a pretty accurate assessment. I can't post Ukie maps, but it seems that it's roughly advisory from HVN east, BOS east maybe sniffs low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 If the GFS joins the party, I leave Savannah on Thursday and come home for a few days. Gotta rake the roof (is what I am telling the him)Ha. Can't stand to miss another one? No roof issues here thanks to all of the wind and "dry" snow lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 BOX 4PM AFD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.LARGE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AMERICANMODELS HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS RESULTING IN A FRONT PUSHING THROUGHTHE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOPALONG AS WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT IN MORE OF AN ANA-FRONTAL SYSTEM.THE EC AND UKMET HOWEVER SHOW A MIDWEST LOW MOVING THROUGH THENORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF NANTUCKET DEEPENING OUT INTO THE MARITIMES.REGARDLESS BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOW PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THISTIMEFRAME. HOW IT FORMS AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUTAM CONCERN THAT THE EC ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD SUPPORT IN A COASTALREDEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS BUT DIDNOT BUMP UP TO LIKELY DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. HOPEFULLYGUIDANCE COMES IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE MORESNOW...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ALSO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVFOR THE COLD SURGE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is nuts if this hits. Starting to lose track of all these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We're on to Thursday. And some parts of the region could see 6 feet in two weeks—Lunenburg is already up to 5' in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Storms after storms after storms When the snow stops falling Thursday we will need a new thread pretty quick about this late weekend... I picked a good winter to move up here from the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Storms after storms after storms When the snow stops falling Thursday we will need a new thread pretty quick about this late weekend... I picked a good winter to move up here from the DC area Moved up here from DC this year as well! I'm impressed thus far with the NE winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Moved up here from DC this year as well! I'm impressed thus far with the NE winter! Haha, every storm this year either just misses them or is just 3 degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Moved up here from DC this year as well! I'm impressed thus far with the NE winter! How impressed were you with NE winter prior to 7-10 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is nuts if this hits. Starting to lose track of all these storms i'm starting to lose faith in these threats just because of sheer probability.....I mean, at some point, one must figure that climo is going to drag one of these threats by the hair, and propel it into failure. It just has to intervene, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 How impressed were you with NE winter prior to 7-10 days ago? Not very... but I had faith in a turn around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 How impressed were you with NE winter prior to 7-10 days ago? The melts were as epic as this snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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