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mackerel_sky

Fab February Banter

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Its still precipitating here at 32.4F.  anymore cooling and we have problems.  It's like a drizzle mist.  Weird.  Freezing fog ftw? lol

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Mean looks about the same with a very tight grouping around it.  Only 2 members 8"+.  Mean qpf is 0.80"

 

Mine are fairly evenly distributed between 2.5-14".  LOL.  Decent clustering around 4-5", 5-7", and 11-14".

 

I think I'm going with 3-6" as my call for MBY at the moment.

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Oh man, it's almost nowcast time! For ATL, this could either end up as either #RainDay2015 or the best snowstorm since January 9, 2011.

 

Will the SLP track over Savannah or St. Marys? Will the models bust too warm? Will Cheeznado eat crow? Will I eat crow? Will Brick get 6" at his place? Will I get 6" at my place? Will the SREF turn out to be right? Will the Euro be right? NAM? GFS? UKIE?

 

(You won't) find out on the next edition of As The Model Runs. Good night, everyone!

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I don't have any idea how tomorrow is gonna go for the ATL metro but I'm too hyped lol. This has been a fun storm to track for sure and I hope we get plastered. Get out there and enjoy it whether you get an inch or 10. Best of luck to the great people in AL,SC, and NC. I hope this storm overperforms for y'all.

I'd be happy with 3" but of course I want more lol. Can't wait to see all the stories and meltdowns. It's going to be a hell of a ride. God bless and lets get it!

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Game on my brothers and sisters! Looks like we had no crazy trends overnight and a little colder profiles for folks on the southern end of things. For the triad, it looks like 3" is a lock and 8" is a reasonable max to hope for. I love a fresh snow that covers every blade of grass so that's what I'm hoping for. Good luck y'all!

 

Well, the NWS has exceeded my expectations:  6"-10" in my forecast!  Wow!

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Game on my brothers and sisters! Looks like we had no crazy trends overnight and a little colder profiles for folks on the southern end of things. For the triad, it looks like 3" is a lock and 8" is a reasonable max to hope for. I love a fresh snow that covers every blade of grass so that's what I'm hoping for. Good luck y'all!

Well, the NWS has exceeded my expectations: 6"-10" in my forecast! Wow!

You and James and Widre look really good! Good luck man!

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What does the wral model show? Did it trend nw or hold serve?

They keep showing 1-3 for the Triangle, but they do acknowledge higher totals possible.

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You and James and Widre look really good! Good luck man!

Yeah I gotta say I'm feeling good here in Durham. NWS now calling for 6-10", and just for fun Wunderground has 8-12." I think 4-6" is a safe bet at this point but we'll see what happens. I just hope none of us have to deal with mixing issues, especially you all in Wake County.

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Yeah I gotta say I'm feeling good here in Durham. NWS now calling for 6-10", and just for fun Wunderground has 8-12." I think 4-6" is a safe bet at this point but we'll see what happens. I just hope none of us have to deal with mixing issues, especially you all in Wake County.

Yeah, you're in a great spot! Gonna be fun!

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I like FFC's decision to segment the warning area. The southern metro, unfortunately, is looking less and likely to get significant snow. TWC's in-house maps have a brutal gradient with good snows just north of ATL-BHM.

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They keep showing 1-3 for the Triangle, but they do acknowledge higher totals possible.

 

That's dumb if they are showing that.  I think for us, anything under 3" I will consider a bust.    It's possible we do 3-4" of snow with a 1" of sleet with a glaze of freezing rain.  That would be a fun event but a nightmare to deal with tomorrow.  

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I like FFC's decision to segment the warning area. The southern metro, unfortunately, is looking less and likely to get significant snow. TWC's in-house maps have a brutal gradient with good snows just north of ATL-BHM.

Yep there is going to be a very sharp cutoff which makes  it very hard to tell what to do in terms of going to gainesville or not.  I am right on top of the transition line and the models would mainly spell a mix here but my gut tells me it will be colder thanks to higher rates/dynamical cooling which the models are mostly missing right now. However if that doesn't happen i think i'd lose my sh8t if I was sitting here with 33 degree rain while thundersnow and 2 inch per hour rates were happening 30 miles away.

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Weather Channel with 0" accumulation for ATL. Are they going rogue and not following the latest guidance? How about even looking at the low placement? It's ok to be wrong but this is borderline misinformation.

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I won't clutter the thread with the whole thing but,  FFC's analysis from this morning is well written.

It may be just my perception but it seems that lately they have decided to let humans type this thing out.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

That is a very good write up there...thanks for sharing!!

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I won't clutter the thread with the whole thing but,  FFC's analysis from this morning is well written.

It may be just my perception but it seems that lately they have decided to let humans type this thing out.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

They are worlds better than they used to be, make no mistake about it. I was one of their harshest critics for a long time but they are much improved. The only  complaint i still have with them is they normally ignore my area still but overall the difference between now and a few years ago is quite striking.

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I'm a little worried about it being a mostly rain situation in Chapel Hill.

 

I figure Murphy's Law can apply to weather, so it's good to be pessimistic wrt forecasts.

OTOH, some clouds started coming in. Maybe that'll keep the temps down.

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I'm a little worried about it being a mostly rain situation in Chapel Hill.

 

I figure Murphy's Law can apply to weather, so it's good to be pessimistic wrt forecasts.

OTOH, some clouds started coming in. Maybe that'll keep the temps down.

 

You're good man!  I'll trade with ya.

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Weather Channel with 0" accumulation for ATL. Are they going rogue and not following the latest guidance? How about even looking at the low placement? It's ok to be wrong but this is borderline misinformation.

 

I wish they would clarify when they say "ATL".  "ATL" can either be the (relative to the whole) tiny city of Atlanta or often people just mean the airport.  The wider metropolitan area is pretty much absolutely going to get some snow.

 

But if by ATL they generally mean Hartsfield, then yes, all rain wouldn't be a shock down there.  Even downtown city proper might be all rain.

 

I wish we were more like NYC, where people actively use parts of the city to understand what areas are being discussed, i.e. the various island names.

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I won't clutter the thread with the whole thing but,  FFC's analysis from this morning is well written.

It may be just my perception but it seems that lately they have decided to let humans type this thing out.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

As a consumer/citizen, I've been super pleased with all their discussion over the last few weeks and events.  Very nice discussions and even a bit of humor here and there goes a long long way to making them accessible.  I've also been really happy with the lead time on their product issuances.  No last minute warnings this winter!

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