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January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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Haven't measured here yet...but if guesstimate around 12". Not too bent out of shape about it...just had a feeling this one would underperform. And hey...12" more than I was expecting 3-4 days ago.

As we reflect on this bust, I think it's important to remember one of the first rules I learned about forecasting...know your climatology and never forecast the extreme/historic until it's absolutely certain. Sometimes I think we all get carried away and latch onto an extreme solution. Then people talk crap on certain models and look for reasons for them to be wrong. Does the Euro have better skill than the NAM and GFS? Sure. Is it infallible? No. This is a great example of why it's important to consider all guidance.

The forecasts widespread 2-3', especially back towards NYC were just not smart IMO. I thought 12-18" for NYC, 16-24" for most of CT and east with some isolated spots of 2-3' was reasonable...and even that will end up too high in many areas. Of course some will never learn. Last night when DT admitted bust in western areas and NYC, he still went on a long tirade about how irresponsible and plain stupid TWC was for their 12-18" call in NYC despite it being far closer to reality than his.

Sorry for the rant, I just think many got too caught up in the excitement of this one and forecasts suffered.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I read the entire thread from the point of going to bed till I rose back up just past 7. Eyeballing maybe 18 on the deck with SN+. I am bullsh't at Logan's spotter and cannot believe that isn't several inches low. These are climate records for goodness sakes! Anyway, plenty left in this event....plenty!

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Was out for a nice walk.  It's a good storm.  About 5 so far and snowing mod-heavy.  Vis is 1/4 or less I think.  The bands in Mass RI are great bands and they seem to be sitting still from orh and se.  Up here we had a heavier band rotate in, but not the heaviest.  The heaviest echoes just keep fading out as they near CON.  But if this continues another 6-8 hours we'll get a foot or more.  

 

Hoping the storm slows or stalls or retros.  Anyone have an opinion on this?

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