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Baroclinic Zone

January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

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Jay the biggest piece of Xanax would be the 0z Euro givin most areas 2" QPF ....all the precip on euro is from 7pm on ...so aside from Cape cod....95% of precip will show with Euro.  IF euro craps out somehow with stall and cuts us to 1.5QPF maxes over SE mass and Cape Cod....the whole entire board will need therapy. YES it would be still be a very good storm, but if everyone gets cut that much...it will be abysmal.

 

I'm starting to reach into my wallet to buy what Clint has been selling but i'm not there yet. We know GFS is crap fine....nam at 12-18 hours (hmm I can't really toss it that easily) but I can see it off, RGEM ....ummm I don't know....what does CMC/UKIE show ...I'm gonna pour myself a shot or two of Vodka take a sip and a walk

 

There's really no question on tonight, but as we see models trim to the west that also means the duration here is shorter as the low itself continues to end up further ENE vs the previous run.  So far this is true in every model from the 12z on aside of the 18z NAM (which collapsed east at 0z) and the not yet run 0z Euro.

 

GFS is a big hit, NAM a big hit, RGEM a big hit.  But at one point I expected significant snows well into the afternoon and evening tomorrow and I'm doubting that in a large way now.  I think the low may be too far ENE but I'm hoping!

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IDK just stepped in from a raging storm whats the fuss is it the same peeps who melted 3 days ago about not getting snow? get out and enjoy this, its awesome out there.

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You still thinking 18-24" for gyx?

 

I truly hate our assigned forecast ranges, but I can tell you we have 19" for GYX in the grids. I don't see any glaring reason to change that right now.

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Jay the biggest piece of Xanax would be the 0z Euro givin most areas 2" QPF ....all the precip on euro is from 7pm on ...so aside from Cape cod....95% of precip will show with Euro.  IF euro craps out somehow with stall and cuts us to 1.5QPF maxes over SE mass and Cape Cod....the whole entire board will need therapy. YES it would be still be a very good storm, but if everyone gets cut that much...it will be abysmal.

 

I'm starting to reach into my wallet to buy what Clint has been selling but i'm not there yet. We know GFS is crap fine....nam at 12-18 hours (hmm I can't really toss it that easily) but I can see it off, RGEM ....ummm I don't know....what does CMC/UKIE show ...I'm gonna pour myself a shot or two of Vodka take a sip and a walk

Worst case is 1-2'.

No one is cancelling anything.

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So this is what Nemo was like for those in central CT.

Pouring snow from the sky, can't see the traffic light at the end of my street, winds howling, absolutely epic. Not even going to try to do an official total for NWS because I don't have a snowboard or good area to measure(and I can't find my tape measure so might be estimating after a while, my 1' ruler isn't going to last that long), but wow.

Pics and a measurement in a bit.

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I truly hate our assigned forecast ranges, but I can tell you we have 19" for GYX in the grids. I don't see any glaring reason to change that right now.

Thanks. Keep reading about totals being cut some in sne and wasn't sure how that bodes for us.

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So this is what Nemo was like for those in central CT.

Pouring snow from the sky, can't see the traffic light at the end of my street, winds howling, absolutely epic. Not even going to try to do an official total for NWS because I don't have a snowboard or good area to measure(and I can't find my tape measure so might be estimating after a while, my 1' ruler isn't going to last that long), but wow.

Pics and a measurement in a bit.

I was in Worcester for Nemo and it was extremely impressive. We had 30" nearly with amazing wind gusts. Was just in awe.

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Thanks. Keep reading about totals being cut some in sne and wasn't sure how that bodes for us.

 

Well the totals have nowhere to go but down really. We're maxed out on potential in our (NWS) forecasts.

 

Plus people only focus on the 24" and 36" numbers, not the 18" lower bound.

 

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Just spent 2 hours in it. Ripping hard. Not sure how much we have but if this continues for 12 hours we're going to the fukking moon!

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Based on 00z raobs, GFS looks to be verifying the best at 500 mb with the trailing shortwave. The Euro may be a hair better at 850 mb with the low center's heights.

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Worst case is 1-2'.

No one is cancelling anything.

 I just re-read my post and that was actually my worst post of the day lol , it came out  alarmist, much more so  than I intended originally

 

I don't see Euro making a big shift. I think it will cut NW edge of QPF decently thou for sure.

 

I am def. not bullish on the NYC situation. Weenies there are down to less than one hand counting METS who have not thrown in the towel.....Joe B just did ....so they apparently have 2 mets left lol

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