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1/25-1/27 Mauler Thread #2


DDweatherman

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I am done but just to be clear I am not speaking on behalf of CWG. I have not consulted anyone there in my thoughts and have had similar discussions on Twitter.. and I'll say some constructive ones with people from NWS there. This board in particular often leans toward anything you say about NWS that's not NWS favorable is a serious offense. I'm just sharing thoughts. You'd also be able to find where I at least mildly wonder-complained about CWG's last forecast with the range somewhere in a thread here. Like it or not I'm an advanced public.. if I don't get a forecast, I can assure you a whole hell of a lot of people don't and I have observed that fact repeatedly.

We wouldn't be here without you and I'm not trying to be sarcastic there. Everyone on this board offers something to the discussions from all ages and organizations. :)

 

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I am done but just to be clear I am not speaking on behalf of CWG. I have not consulted anyone there in my thoughts and have had similar discussions on Twitter.. and I'll say some constructive ones with people from NWS there. This board in particular often leans toward anything you say about NWS that's not NWS favorable is a serious offense. I'm just sharing thoughts. You'd also be able to find where I at least mildly wonder-complained about CWG's last forecast with the range somewhere in a thread here. Like it or not I'm an advanced public.. if I don't get a forecast, I can assure you a whole hell of a lot of people don't and I have observed that fact repeatedly.

There is a way to bring things up in a manner that leads to more constructive and favorable response even with negative commentary. The way you come off in your comments can appear rude and detrimental. How can anyone have a favorable discussion by saying one thing sucks and here is why. The products are not perfect, I'm not and neither is anyone else in the field. But to say they are useless is just plain wrong. It's mount holly and upton first season with the products...it's our second. Eventually they could expand to much of the NE. If they were not effective then they wouldn't be operational.

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A more controversial issue here is how did all the models miss a KU until it was short range?

 

I know someone will show u in a minute with stats saying how much better they are, and overall on a global sense and with details of storm specifics they are, but I swear the higher resolutions have made the global models more jumpy then they once were.  In fairness there were a few runs mixed in with this posability but then there were other solutions ranging from everything also.  They seem to be better at picking up on meso scale things they could not before but at the expense of having a wider range of options as those details in the short range can send things off on a tangent out in time.  On top of that this pattern with a fast northern stream sending short waves across every 24 hours is impossible for the models to deal with.  If we had amoster block like 2010 they can see the timing of systems as they progress slowly better.  The combo of those two makes this a frustrating year for medium range forecasting.  Just my opinion. 

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There is a way to bring things up in a manner that leads to more constructive and favorable response even with negative commentary. The way you come off in your comments can appear rude and detrimental. How can anyone have a favorable discussion by saying one thing sucks and here is why. The products are not perfect, I'm not and neither is anyone else in the field. But to say they are useless is just plain wrong. It's mount holly and upton first season with the products...it's our second. Eventually they could expand to much of the NE. If they were not effective then they wouldn't be operational.

 

Like I've said before I appreciate your willingness to discuss these issues even if you have strong disagreements with thoughts. I think that's the attitude that will help re-transform NWS in the time ahead. I'm really not here to troll you or just pulling stuff out my arse. Sometimes a little short/terse.. gotta make 150 posts a day you know.

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FWIW, nearly every GFS ensemble member on Raleigh's show the banding/CCB/whatever it is around DCA at hr 36 and 42

Would ensembles be removed from extreme short-term forecasts because the initial conditions and observations influence the solutions more?

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... I explained the use and the methods behind these products last year and we even setup a whole new topic on the forum and discussed at length...

 

Just a note of encouragement.  You and I have met as well as shared discussion online.

I don't see why it is so controversial to understand that the map showing most snow possible is simply that.  My hunch is that for planning purposes, government and industry need to know just how much snow could develop in the unlikely chance that all the moisture that could be wrung of out the storm as snow actually developes in that manner.  What is so confusing about seeing three maps, the minimum, the likely and the maximum?

 

Now that I've stated all that, the NAM seems to show two inches and then scratch and claw for a little more after the energy transfers.  One or two non NWS meteorologists are suggesting that the mid-Atlantic west of the bay can get 6" to 12".  Sheesh!   My instincts tell me that these transferring systems usually perform on the low side.  Is there a strong realistic chance this one can surprise us and overperform with backside/wrap around/ lift from minor 500 mb vorticity maxes sliding through the larger trough?

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Like I've said before I appreciate your willingness to discuss these issues even if you have strong disagreements with thoughts. I think that's the attitude that will help re-transform NWS in the time ahead. I'm really not here to troll you or just pulling stuff out my arse. Sometimes a little short/terse.. gotta make 150 posts a day you know.

We are good.

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I know someone will show u in a minute with stats saying how much better they are, and overall on a global sense and with details of storm specifics they are, but I swear the higher resolutions have made the global models more jumpy then they once were.  In fairness there were a few runs mixed in with this posability but then there were other solutions ranging from everything also.  They seem to be better at picking up on meso scale things they could not before but at the expense of having a wider range of options as those details in the short range can send things off on a tangent out in time.  On top of that this pattern with a fast northern stream sending short waves across every 24 hours is impossible for the models to deal with.  If we had amoster block like 2010 they can see the timing of systems as they progress slowly better.  The combo of those two makes this a frustrating year for medium range forecasting.  Just my opinion. 

 

There were runs showing an epic New England blizzard before Friday? I think the look had potential for a long while for sure.. plenty of us commented on the fact that it was almost something big etc. I mean the clear issue was that none of the models started the big time digging until a few days ago and that transformed the system almost entirely... chaotic pattern, sure that works. I guess a Jan 2000 is still possible.. I know many of us have wondered if we've seen the end of those kind of surprises.

 

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Just a note of encouragement. You and I have met as well as shared discussion online.

I don't see why it is so controversial to understand that the map showing most snow possible is simply that. My hunch is that for planning purposes, government and industry need to know just how much snow could develop in the unlikely chance that all the moisture that could be wrung of out the storm as snow actually developes in that manner. What is so confusing about seeing three maps, the minimum, the likely and the maximum?

Now that I've stated all that, the NAM seems to show two inches and then scratch and claw for a little more after the energy transfers. One or two non NWS meteorologists are suggesting that the mid-Atlantic west of the bay can get 6" to 12". Sheesh! My instincts tell me that these transferring systems usually perform on the low side. Is there a strong realistic chance this one can surprise us and overperform with backside/wrap around/ lift from minor 500 mb vorticity maxes sliding through the larger trough?

Sure. There is always that chance given the right setup.

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Would ensembles be removed from extreme short-term forecasts because the initial conditions and observations influence the solutions more?

Lower resolution. Spreads things out more. Ops should be weighted first inside of 72. The agreement is intriguing though. But should not be relied on. Short range will figure it out for better or worse.

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I don't see why it is so controversial to understand that the map showing most snow possible is simply that.  My hunch is that for planning purposes, government and industry need to know just how much snow could develop in the unlikely chance that all the moisture that could be wrung of out the storm as snow actually developes in that manner.  What is so confusing about seeing three maps, the minimum, the likely and the maximum?

 

To be clear that's not really the issue.

 

"Reasonable worst case scenario" as of last night: https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/559151372495753217

 

Forecast as of this morning: https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/559337301323808768

 

Just keep in mind the Euro had spit out 30" over parts of that region yesterday while reading and thinking it through. 

 

It might be functionally correct or lagged or whatever.. but it doesn't make sense.

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GFS ensemble again supports that wrap around trough band. All models have a nice area of precip actually but some (NAM/UKMET) take it across PA. The GFS is more south and has the best axis across MD but gets northern VA into it also. The coastal is sort of irrelavent now to me. Only the euro does that weird transfer thing and its probably due to its amplification bias. It over amps the secondary and kills off the primary too soon. The issue then is for the primary band of precip to end up more south like the GFS. That is going to depend how badly the trough going negative pushes the thermal profiles north ahead of the low.attachicon.gifGFSens.gif

I am cautiously optimistic for some banding here on Monday night/Tues.   It would be the highlight of the entire storm, combined with some wind, if it happens....at any rate if I can get a solid 4 inch event for once this winter I will consider it a win.  Latest NAM/GFS models are encouraging at least.

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