Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That 1036 HP stalls the storm a bitfor NE. Need that to nudge down the coast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 These maps need to go. That was plainly illustrated with the max potential being 8 in NJ last night and actual forecasts 6 hours later bumped to 8-14"... Who cares if they have a logical reasoning to them if they are misleading and terrible for real communications. They are effective for our partners that need them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 you mean "our" area right? Of course. When it comes to snow. Why would I care about anyone elses area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My hourly temp forecast had me at 47... I am only at 45. Hmmm... Could this be the beginnings of a reverse bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If I recall correctly, this is the 72-hour outlook. This would be the guesstimate of the Combined result of the clipper and the coastal. However, LWX only wants to forecast the clipper results right now in the WWA (and given the 12Z runs, I don't blame them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Of course. When it comes to snow. Why would I care about anyone elses area sorry. I am skittish this morning. Its actually the temps that scare me the most so hopefully that cold front in Harrisburg Mitch mentioned will push through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 They are effective for our partners that need them.So make them internal or more human based. It's stupid for top mets at my holly to be pretending the max potential is 8" last night publicly then attacking the public for 'not getting it'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SPECIAL STATEMENT Statement as of 11:56 AM EST on January 25, 2015 ... Complex winter weather coming to Baltimore/Washington region tonight through Tuesday... A complex winter storm scenario will develop tonight and continue through Tuesday for the greater Baltimore/Washington region. Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight... then redevelop offshore of Cape Hatteras as a strong coastal storm during the day Monday. This will give the greater Baltimore and Washington region two separate bouts of winter weather. The first round of precipitation will start early this evening in western Maryland... extreme northern Virginia... and the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and continue through Monday. In these areas... the precipitation may start as a period of mixed rain and snow before changing over to all snow by daybreak Monday. The snow will continue through the day on Monday... making travel difficult particularly north of Interstate 66 and west of the Blue Ridge. Winter storm warnings have been posted for this region. Tonight... as the precipitation progresses eastward towards the Interstate 95 corridor... rain will mix with snow in the immediate Baltimore and Washington DC metropolitan areas as it spreads eastward. However... by daybreak Monday... precipitation should change over to all snow across the entire region with the exception of southern Maryland. Some models suggest that precipitation on Monday will stay all rain in areas south and east of Washington DC... so there remains considerable uncertainty for areas of Maryland south of Route 50. Winter weather advisories have been issued for the greater Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas. Finally... as the coastal storm starts to rapidly develop late Monday afternoon off the North Carolina coast... a second round of winter weather may further impact the region... this time primarily east of Interstate 95. Snow bands along with gusty northeast winds up to 40 mph are expected to develop around the powerful storm system Monday night and Tuesday as it moves northeast towards Cape Cod. An additional 5 inches or more of snow is possible in the counties along Maryland's portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Blowing snow is also possible... reducing visibilities to below one-quarter of a mile at times. Winter storm watches have been issued for the Maryland counties directly adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay. Stay tuned to your favorite media outlet and NOAA Weather Radio for further updates on this developing winter storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 These maps need to go. That was plainly illustrated with the max potential being 8 in NJ last night and actual forecasts 6 hours later bumped to 8-14"... Who cares if they have a logical reasoning to them if they are misleading and terrible for real communications. Nobody agrees with that. They are useful. Should wpc remove their probability thresholds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't remember LWX sending out SWS's like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nobody agrees with that. They are useful. Should wpc remove their probability thresholds?Lol.. Sure. I'm not going to muck up this thread but don't be silly. NWS is still years behind most places with public comms. They can internally figure that out and remain behind or take some constructive criticism and work with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't remember LWX sending out SWS's like that They used to do it more frequently years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lol.. Sure. I'm not going to muck up this thread but don't be silly. NWS is still years behind most places with public comms. They can internally figure that out and remain behind or take some constructive criticism and work with it. You do the same thing at CWG with threshold maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So make them internal or more human based. It's stupid for top mets at my holly to be pretending the max potential is 8" last night publicly then attacking the public for 'not getting it'. About 80% of your comments on this page are sarcastic. You always put a negative spin on everything without having full facts. I explained the use and the methods behind these products last year and we even setup a whole new topic on the forum and discussed at length. The product is for planning purposes only and are used by hundreds of transportation and EM's across the Mid Atlantic and NE. We take their feedback very seriously! We have even changed things based on user feedback and I even took feedback given by folks on here to help make the products better. It's not made to give a max case scenario for your back yard forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So now the changeover to snow "should" occur by day break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You do the same thing at CWG with threshold maps...I guarantee you if the euro showed 30" for parts of our area we would not act like 8" was a reasonable worst case scenario and push people to documentation links explainiing why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lol.. Sure. I'm not going to muck up this thread but don't be silly. NWS is still years behind most places with public comms. They can internally figure that out and remain behind or take some constructive criticism and work with it. Not much of what you say is constructive... That's the problem. I don't come on here ragging on the cwg approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guarantee you if the euro showed 30" for parts of our area we would not act like 8" was a reasonable worst case scenario and push people to documentation links explainiing why. Well I fully support both methods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 About 80% of your comments on this page are sarcastic. You always put a negative spin on everything without having full facts. I explained the use and the methods behind these products last year and we even setup a whole new topic on the forum and discussed at length. The product is for planning purposes only and are used by hundreds of transportation and EM's across the Mid Atlantic and NE. We take their feedback very seriously! We have even changed things based on user feedback and I even took feedback given by folks on here to help make the products better. It's not made to give a max case scenario for your back yard forecast. I love NWS.. I think it's probably among the best functioning and most valuable government offerings. There is a very apparent culture there as well.. fortunately it seems a lot of the younger crowd coming in realizes that and things will eventually change. Full stop. Thanks for the convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not much of what you say is constructive... That's the problem. I don't come on here ragging on the cwg approach. Nice... Ian taking it on chin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know technically we shouldn't use the 12z GEFS mean because we are too close in, but taking a peek at it, and looks pretty nice for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nice... Ian taking it on chin.. C'mon don't add gas to the fire...we want as many red taggers as possible here or we'd have a weenie roast 24/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Also, remember that Tropical Tidbits snow maps are only 10:1 ratios... I would think the second storm would have better ratios than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not much of what you say is constructive... That's the problem. I don't come on here ragging on the cwg approach. I am done but just to be clear I am not speaking on behalf of CWG. I have not consulted anyone there in my thoughts and have had similar discussions on Twitter.. and I'll say some constructive ones with people from NWS there. This board in particular often leans toward anything you say about NWS that's not NWS favorable is a serious offense. I'm just sharing thoughts. You'd also be able to find where I at least mildly wonder-complained about CWG's last forecast with the range somewhere in a thread here. Like it or not I'm an advanced public.. if I don't get a forecast, I can assure you a whole hell of a lot of people don't and I have observed that fact repeatedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 FWIW, nearly every GFS ensemble member on Raleigh's show the banding/CCB/whatever it is around DCA at hr 36 and 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As much as I hate the rap, its last 4 runs have been great. Current one the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why cant we just get one region wide storm without having to bit our nails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS ensemble again supports that wrap around trough band. All models have a nice area of precip actually but some (NAM/UKMET) take it across PA. The GFS is more south and has the best axis across MD but gets northern VA into it also. The coastal is sort of irrelavent now to me. Only the euro does that weird transfer thing and its probably due to its amplification bias. It over amps the secondary and kills off the primary too soon. The issue then is for the primary band of precip to end up more south like the GFS. That is going to depend how badly the trough going negative pushes the thermal profiles north ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 A more controversial issue here is how did all the models miss a KU until it was short range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 FWIW, nearly every GFS ensemble member on Raleigh's show the banding/CCB/whatever it is around DCA at hr 36 and 42 yea its about as impressive a signal for such a feature as I have seen on an ensemble...I posted the total qpf above. GFS is either showing its new skills or falling on its face again with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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