nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Days 7 and 8 look interesting on the EURO tonight... coastal low that brings us snow? Storm potential for late next week has been there for awhile now. The more knowledgeable may correct me, but I think it's a pretty good looking set up. Run any of the 500 heights of the last several gfs runs from a northern hemisphere perspective and look at the negative heights in the Gulf of Alaska. It's causing a really nice ridge on the west coast and trough on the east coast. I won't get too excited until it delivers at least one time, but that's a persistent look to the pattern in the long range. The northwest flow is open for business across the eastern 2/3 of the US, and southern stream energy coming across the southern tier. As long as we don't get too much suppression it could be a good couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CFS2 just keeps getting colder for FEB. It nailed JAN at the end of DEC, the location of the FEB cold certainly fits what we're seeing wrt the polar vortex, so I say run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS says don't fall asleep on the late week storm. Big spread but at least 4-5 members bring the precip in. Couple smack downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS says don't fall asleep on the late week storm. Big spread but at least 4-5 members bring the precip in. Couple smack downs. Always have to keep an eye on ejecting southern stream energy with a big cold airmass north. Ops have been squashing it, but it is still a ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ok, Euro folks. What happened between 144 and 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Rain to maybe paste. Low to the north screws up the midlevels. By 162 we get the column but precip is departing and surface is mid 30's. Probably not worth discussing too much either way. Plenty of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Rain to maybe paste. Low to the north screws up the midlevels. By 162 we get the column but precip is departing and surface is mid 30's. Probably not worth discussing too much either way. Plenty of potential. Figured. Would be nice to freshen up the snowpack before the big dump of cold gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Rain to maybe paste. Low to the north screws up the midlevels. By 162 we get the column but precip is departing and surface is mid 30's. Probably not worth discussing too much either way. Plenty of potential. its very close for me...like 6 or so inches....marginal temps...lets get that one trending colder. Its not suppose to be warm on Feb 5th of our rocking Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Rain to maybe paste. Low to the north screws up the midlevels. By 162 we get the column but precip is departing and surface is mid 30's. Probably not worth discussing too much either way. Plenty of potential. GFS had a similar low to the north from what I saw, looks it warms up some here (above freezing, but not a torch), front goes through, and the GFS tries to develop some wave along the front but kind of too late. There's little precip here before and after the front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I still wouldn't give up on something in the late Weds to late Fri timeframe next week. There's an opportunity for something more than the NS or SS vorts that don't connect that the GFS has shown the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS scrapes us with coastal snow on the 5th. Nice vort digging into AR at the same time trying to interact. I'm starting a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS scrapes us with coastal snow on the 5th. Nice vort digging into AR at the same time trying to interact. I'm starting a thread. You just can't make this stuff up....very 2013 esque with the feature placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS scrapes us with coastal snow on the 5th. Nice vort digging into AR at the same time trying to interact. I'm starting a thread. Something about needle and thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS scrapes us with coastal snow on the 5th. Nice vort digging into AR at the same time trying to interact. I'm starting a thread. Nice avatar Bob, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice avatar Bob, lol. it's too classic not to be reminded of over and over and over.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Coastal is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone see this setup on the GGEM, look at the HP up north, HELLo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone see this setup on the GGEM, look at the HP up north, HELLo hello to a scraper.... and its barely one at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would Bev's nice storm on the cmc but the pacific jet shoves everything east at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 hello to a scraper.... and its barely one at that You have ot beyond 144? Regardless it is a damn good setup. A low scoots east in Canada which allows for a high to build in, thatlow down south looks epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If this next sys fails might as well shut down the long range threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You have ot beyond 144? Regardless it is a damn good setup. A low scoots east in Canada which allows for a high to build in, thatlow down south looks epic. GFS does have a similar system though perhaps not as strongly. Temps are kind of marginal for awhile but who knows. It also does get some precip this way before it scoots out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro drops a lobe of the pv down with big arctic hp and punches the southern vort right in the face. Pretty large swing in 12 hours so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro drops a lobe of the pv down with big arctic hp and punches the southern vort right in the face. Pretty large swing in 12 hours so who knows. You beat me to it. Crazy front though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I would like to add a comment on just the cold that we have had or have been told was coming. Am I the only one that thinks it has not been overly cold this year? Every time the real cold is modeled to come it has been meh. Today 40 the wind is making it cold. Just curious. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You have ot beyond 144? Regardless it is a damn good setup. A low scoots east in Canada which allows for a high to build in, thatlow down south looks epic. It crushes much of NC and SE VA up to about Richmond after rain initially before heading east out to sea. DC does get scraped with an inch or two (probably right where you want it at this range, eh?). Then the Euro goes full-on cold and crushes our storm before it gets a chance to turn the corner. Huge model swings last night. The 00z Euro had a steamroom coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If this next sys fails might as well shut down the long range threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS gives us a glimmer of hope with the coastal. Light accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You just can't make this stuff up....very 2013 esque with the feature placement. Its the GFS... of course you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Watch Thursday at 500mb with the northern stream diving into and trying to catch the southern energy. The northern s/w digs and raises heights enough on 18z GFS that the associated low with southern s/w comes up the coast. Compare the evolution of the coastal18z GFS at 500mb with 12z and you can see the northern stream interacting more with the southern stream. Also the southern vort spins up a nice little Surface LP along the Gulf Coast to work with. In the past I've seen this happen in reverse, where we start out with a phased coastal solution days in advanced which eventually trends AWAY and all we are left with is a little southern s/w running way out ahead of the northern s/w and we end up with no storm or a weak out to sea solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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