Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Only a moron from 40s would be up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 would be my 7th favorite storm ever looks like about 1.25" QPF all snow....not bad...and I'm sure very realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 looks like about 1.25" QPF all snow....not bad...and I'm sure very realisticits an obscene event. Sunday to tuesday night. Id take this storm and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 its an obscene event. Sunday to tuesday night. Id take this storm and call it a winter The 500mb pattern looks a lot like PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 EPS at 240 says we're saved! I'm telling all my friends then buying stock in Kleenex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs getting ugly for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs getting ugly for February Euro keeps the trough further west but gfs looks a lot like that cfs Mitch was posting. Trough axis off the east coast so everything is diving down right over us. That's not going to work unless you love chilly dry weather with occasional flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro keeps the trough further west but gfs looks a lot like that cfs Mitch was posting. Trough axis off the east coast so everything is diving down right over us. That's not going to work unless you love chilly dry weather with occasional flurries. Looks like 40s as far as the eye can see with an occasional dip...just gonna have to be a surprise snow if there is to be one this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro ens still love the day 8-10 threat. They all have a storm. About 1/3 of them hit our area. That's a strong signal from that range but that doesnt mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs ens are less impressed but a few do have a similar storm to euro at that time. The thurs storm looks worse and worse every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs ens are less impressed but a few do have a similar storm to euro at that time. The thurs storm looks worse and worse every run. GFS has us around 50 on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs ens are less impressed but a few do have a similar storm to euro at that time. The thurs storm looks worse and worse every run. CMC and Ukie look good for late this week. Euro looks somewhat better than previous runs. GFS...congrats SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CMC and Ukie look good for late this week. Euro looks somewhat better than previous runs. GFS...congrats SC. If we can get the same trend from this storm maybe it will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 New GFS @ 129 hours looks similar to the 00z EURO same time frame, better push SE with the ULL in Canada, and a stronger shortwave in the Pacific, lets see if it leads to a similar storm the EURO had day 8-10 PS. Yes, I'm sick in the head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 New GFS @ 129 hours looks similar to the 00z EURO same time frame, better push SE with the ULL in Canada, and a stronger shortwave in the Pacific, lets see if it leads to a similar storm the EURO had day 8-10 PS. Yes, I'm sick in the head A good kind of sick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 183hrs, solid 1040 HP in SE Canada. Snowing in DC 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at h5 this storm is ripe to have the same issues as the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at h5 this storm is ripe to have the same issues as the current one. lol was just gonna say that. Plenty of time for it to evolve to a fail much like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice 50/50 locking in that HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice 50/50 locking in that HP. Unfortunately that gives me no confidence. I don't like the look because it requires perfection to not end up overhead or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at h5 this storm is ripe to have the same issues as the current one. we are not likely to get good blocking this year so every storm is going to have that risk. Doesn't mean the will all go north. If the h5 vort had trended south instead of north we could have done good in this setup. It just means we need some luck because nothing is coming easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So this weekend's storm crashes and burns on us in spectacular fashion, the slight promise for late this upcoming week is fast becoming barely an echo, and now we're looking at 180+ hours. . . . . I'm so in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm in Weird b-day storm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm in Weird b-day storm ftw In that case, you can start the new thread... Joking, of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice 50/50 locking in that HP. I know you are just stating what the model shows, but a 50-50 @180+ hours means zilch. Seen it many times this winter. Without meaningful blocking further north, lows move through and out of that 50-50 position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Trust me guys im as skeptical as you, but for my sanity I need something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Trust me guys im as skeptical as you, but for my sanity I need something to track I hear you...and I certainly understand the high degree of skepticism from everyone else (especially in light of what just happened!). But you're right, it's something to track. We all know the caveats in a year like this without the true blocking, so excitement levels should be highly tempered. This year we almost certainly are not going to get something ideal that shows up well in advance. Just going by what the GFS shows, I will say that that high is centered in southeast Canada right above the low center, not pushing in from south-central Canada and the northern Plains area behind it. That's a bit of a difference from this current system today. Not saying this is a given, but just noting the different look for what it's worth (maybe not much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm in Weird b-day storm ftw Good luck. I can almost guarantee we'll be at Medium Rare discussing how and why this storm has screwed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm not saying to be excited, we all know its low probability. But the mid feb period looks promising. The pattern isn't perfect but far from hostile and that is a money period for us to score even in a crap year. There are enough things going in our favor to think we might get one good event before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was comparing 500 maps from 33 hr and 198 hr just randomly to see the differences....what these untrained eyes see is strong low pressure in north east Canada locking in the high over south east Canada at 198 vice hr 33...our current POS that doesn't have that...so the 50/50 is money for us with the next Sun/Mon potential fail....way too far obviously to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.