RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nuisance snows really...not enough to shut it down for a day but just enough to cause ct traffic to crawl on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think this ends up looking pretty similar to most of the other snow events this year. Ground gets covered for many with a C-1, and someone does a bit better with 2" or so. Maybe a bit better with this "event", but more or less just penny type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Classic vort track for an over-performer compared to QPF Queens' expectations. That weak ML fronto almost and some pretty good instability under the 5H trough. That's why I'm still interested in this one for a band of decent snow somewhere. if you look at 7h you would think that's a 3-6 lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think this ends up looking pretty similar to most of the other snow events this year. Ground gets covered for many with a C-1, and someone does a bit better with 2" or so. Maybe a bit better with this "event", but more or less just penny type stuff. if the Euro and NAM midlevels are right Hunchie yea rah rah sis boom ba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS still looks the same as 18z...not like the Euro/NAM with the vort energy. That would be a non-starter if a GFS evolution happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Will, the GFS is closer than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Will, the GFS is closer than you think.Lol. Yeah, Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Will, the GFS is closer than you think.no it's not and I am sure Will knows that. Bad JUJU. The midlevels are way SE, inflow is non existent. Meh on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nichols is probably talking about the main CCB from the offshore low...it does clip ACK, but that is going to be a non-factor for 99% of the posters here. The main focus is on the vort energy from the shortwave trailing that front runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Clipper wayyyyy south on the EURO, congrats DC on having more snow than PHL, NYC and BOS if the EURO verifies. 3" or so for them verbatim, 0 for all on here except some flurries for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Clipper is an unmitigated disaster on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Clipper wayyyyy south on the EURO, congrats DC on having more snow than PHL, NYC and BOS if the EURO verifies. 3" or so for them verbatim, 0 for all on here except some flurries for eastern MA. Charlie Brown winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Charlie Brown winter.who cares about clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 who cares about clippersGinxy clippers just aren't working out until perhaps the pattern flip but you and I have been very steadfast of a change after the 22nd ish.... The 24th was about when it appeared to me the circus would start so that map is no surprise. We will just have to watch the north south displacement as there will be haves and have nots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Clipper is an unmitigated disaster on the euro. The models cannot get out of their own way with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Models suck big time, NAM is a no show even without an inverted trough in the region, GFS is closer to the coast. EURO is far off and GGEM is far off. Man when are we going to catch a break? That EURO depiction 120 hours out supports a rain mix with snow for coastal SNE, when can we get storms without the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Let's call it and move on to what looks like a full course meal this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 looks like you boys are blowing off your date for the prom queen, let's just hope she doesn't blow you off and leave you completely high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 18z NAM will save this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 looks like you boys are blowing off your date for the prom queen, let's just hope she doesn't blow you off and leave you completely high and dry.More like went to the prom alone, sat in the corner the entire night, and are now back home perusing the internet for the best material to fantasize with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The models cannot get out of their own way with this thing. They haven't been that bad...the Euro went more to the front-running energy rather than that nice consolidated piece of trailing energy that we need to get a good band. But we are talking fairly minor difference in the overall setup that have larger sensible wx differences....it's the kind of stuff we debate when the difference is a couple of inches vs flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 They haven't been that bad...the Euro went more to the front-running energy rather than that nice consolidated piece of trailing energy that we need to get a good band. But we are talking fairly minor difference in the overall setup that have larger sensible wx differences....it's the kind of stuff we debate when the difference is a couple of inches vs flurries. There are a lot of s/w in the flow...so models aren't successfully keying in on threats +5 days out. Other than that, they have been fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There are a lot of s/w in the flow...so models aren't successfully keying in on threats +5 days out. Other than that, they have been fine. Well part of the problem is what I've said before...people are trying to get specific with threats at a time interval than is beyond guidance skill for that type of detail. It's part of the reason we wanted to start the model thread vs starting threads for spefiic events 5+ days out. This particular thread was fine in that regard...but there's still some sort of sense of expectation on guidance that is not relaistic. I'm not sure why all of the sudden that expectation is there. I think it definitely has to do with the increased ease of model access. Again some of that model "failure" gets way overblown when people are debating 0.4" vs 1.5" all winter as if that is some sort of meaningful model shift when it really isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Emotions FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Emotions FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 wait I was promised 1-3" and told that we should all know our MET101 by know? what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 wait I was promised 1-3" and told that we should all know our MET101 by know? what happened? Instead, you got weenie 101 from the head professor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 My .25" of snow forecast is going to bust big. It's a bad situation when forecasts in fractions are busting by multiples. I'm heading out to get some lime. Time to get the lawn ready for spring. Greenup will start any day with these sun angles and no snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Instead, you got weenie 101 from the head professor. "Promised" 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 "Promised" 1-3 inches. We need to get back on topic, sbos just signed off. All eyes on the clipper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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