TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Should be flakes in the air for much of thursday and into the night. More of what we have had so far this winter in terms of events. Light, long duration snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Comes in Wed afternoon and snows into much of Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Comes in Wed afternoon and snows into much of ThursdayWednesday afternoon??????? On euro it starts in the wee hours of the morning thursday is is probably finished by 12-3pm in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 SREFS still advisory criteria for most. A little surprising that they didn't cave after the NAM came back to reality. Nice to look at, but basing a forecast off them is going to leave you in hot water most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Special Statement : SREF's useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm really excited about my periods of snow that sublimate between bouts and will end up with less than a half inch OTG. Manly winter folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm really excited about my periods of snow that sublimate between bouts and will end up with less than a half inch OTG. Manly winter folksTake it to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Take it to banterYes sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes sir!This is as crabby as I'm going to get I promise. Nam is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Unsurprisingly, the SREF plumes are heavily skewed by the ARW members. At BOS ARW mean: 8.04" NMM mean: 1.47" NMB mean: 2.44"(However, removing the one member that has 13" drops it to 0.68"). All members: 4.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Wednesday afternoon??????? On euro it starts in the wee hours of the morning thursday is is probably finished by 12-3pm in your area. Western sections it's in here late Wed afternoon and lasts till late afternoon Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro ensembles significantly wetter than the operational. .10-.15" for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro ensembles significantly wetter than the operational. .10-.15" for most of SNE. Where is the track of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Western sections it's in here late Wed afternoon and lasts till late afternoon ThursThere is no precip until after midnight, and that is for sections furthest west too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think it's all subjective anyway. Few, several, etc. If we're going to take everything literally, several is "more than two but not many." I personally don't say several if I mean more than three, and I believe that was ALY's intent there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 How do the EURO ensembles mean look for Cape Cod, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 How do the EURO ensembles mean look for Cape Cod, MA? 2" of snow or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAM and GFS might be suffering from placing the surface low nearest the convection that explodes off the NC coastline. Instead of nearest the Shortwave vort max. We have seen this happen before with clippers and nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The shortwave is pretty good but the sfc baroclinic zone sort of outruns it. I do like the upper support though so it wouldn't surprise me to see a decent band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Norlun troughs are notoriously difficult to pin down. One thing I have noticed is that they tend to rotate south, cyclonically, across successive runs. Ex: if at 84 hours there is a precipitating column amid inverted troughing up in Maine, the 72 hour run slips it south, 60 to Cape Ann...48 along LI, then a no show. Yet they do happen from time to time. What that means really is that whatever physical properties cause them to happen they are less discretely understood -- otherwise the models would process them with more accuracy. One of the best Norlun stories I ever heard was a virtual blind result of nearly 20" in Portland Maine. Imagine going to bed and waking up with your car tented, with no idea it was coming ? There are some classics buried in our archives up here. "Slow clearing Down East" > "A dusting of snow possible" > "1 to 3 inches" > "2 to 4 inches" and so on until the forecasts settle around 15". But the old rule of thumb is you don't pull the trigger on an inverted trough until you see the whites of its eyes. Trying to nail down an accurate snowfall forecast well in advance of one is virtually impossible. It could just as easily drop a foot at PSM as it could be all out to sea and bury the Isle of Shoals instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The baroclinic zone has been severely lacking this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAM pretty similar to the last run. C-3" region wide. Weenie snows for eastern mass are euro like on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z NAM did not look all that bad for SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think the Nam will correct west and northward with time, why? Because the track corrected NNEward at the end of the run, instead of heading ENEward, it will end up NNEward with the strength of the shortwave vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 BOX appears to be going 1-2" for basically everyone based off of their latest FB post but closer to 1" than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 BOX appears to be going 1-2" for basically everyone based off of their latest FB post but closer to 1" than 2".NWS map has 1-2" south of PVD-TAN. <1" to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Bring on the Dusting....whoo-hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I probably have more optimism than most on this one given the upper air look and the fact it is still 60 hours out. That's a very vigorous shortwave right on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I probably have more optimism than most on this one given the upper air look and the fact it is still 60 hours out. That's a very vigorous shortwave right on the south coast. You and me on this one dude. let the other whine and think they're getting a dusting. We are hand in hand for 2-4 pike south 1-3 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You would think that having a S/W that potent would lend to a more favorable solution? If that's the case, then the modeling should correct to something more robust in future runs. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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