tavwtby Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 [quot me=Brewbeer" post="3267300" timestamp="1421710509] Damn, 7 pages in 23 hours for 1-2+. We need a real storm. Amen to that... But niclkes and dimes add up to dollars eventually. But I do agree, a nice region wide 12+ coastal will calm all anxiety... I do think this will overperform tho based on the 700 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I still think someone will end up with 4-5 inches from this somewhere in a box bounded by say NYC to BDL to PYM to ACK [Kevin]So you're locking in 5" for the range from NYC to BDL to PYM to ACK[/kevin] Great. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow. Seems aggressive but that would be nice. I'm not convinced of more than C-2 right now. I-84 special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No one is seeing 4-5" imo 2" ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The SREFS finally came to reality Looks like 1-1.5" for most based on the plumes. ARW's are actually below the mean as a whole, it's about half of the NMB's and a few NMM's that are amped up this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am about as Debbie Downer on this N of the Pike as any event this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am about as Debbie Downer on this N of the Pike as any event this seasonYea, we'll get another coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No one is seeing 4-5" imo 2" ceiling This will be one of the most potent Of the season. My preliminary thought here in the hot zone is a quarter to three quarters of an inch of total snow. Threat level Mickey Rooney, shovels set to stun. i believe at this point in the year I have 4" of snow and about 4.5" of road salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam looks to have some light snows over much of Connecticut at hours 48 through 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAM is 0.0" for everyone. This one is quickly joining the cast of failed events of winter 2014-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAM is 0.0" for everyone. This one is quickly joining the cast of failed events of winter 2014-2015. It's out to 54...it's not really out far enough. It's going to spit out some snow on the following frames as the potent vortmax travels just underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's out to 54...it's not really out far enough. It's going to spit out some snow on the following frames as the potent vortmax travels just underneath. It looked to me like it got shredded apart and weakened between hours 48 and 54, but maybe it'll make a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 if you look at the composite reflectivity, it is showing precipitation over the region off of instant weather maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 if you look at the composite reflectivity, it is showing precipitation over the region off of instant weather maps What hours? Likely virga, nothing hits the ground until hour 60 when some QPF is finally starting to make it into western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam throws light snow well north into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Further north this run with light snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Southwest Connecticut seems to do the best. General mood type light snowfall across most of the region with a coating to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I was wrong. What actually happened I think is that the initial confluent energy trended stronger and slower which made me think that was the clipper from my quick glance at it, but the actual clipper is still there, just now a Thursday evening event instead of a Wednesday one. Widespread coatings to inches into NNE with 1-2" for the southern half of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 1-2 would be a win right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam throws light snow well north into NNE. Classic vort track for an over-performer compared to QPF Queens' expectations. That weak ML fronto almost and some pretty good instability under the 5H trough. That's why I'm still interested in this one for a band of decent snow somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What hours? Likely virga, nothing hits the ground until hour 60 when some QPF is finally starting to make it into western areas. possibly or some very light flurries/ snow showers. . main action comes in after hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah that's a good mid level look. Some light east winds at 950 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I actually like that NAM run a lot, definitely shifted north with it's positioning of the best snows and it's juicer overall. I'm with Will and Scott(Who both have provided excellent explanations/analysis, nicely done) that we could see some surprises somewhere, but it's tricky to forecast exactly where with this range, and therefore sticking with a C-2" forecast until you get a better idea of what could over perform is the right call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Classic vort track for an over-performer compared to QPF Queens' expectations. That weak ML fronto almost and some pretty good instability under the 5H trough. That's why I'm still interested in this one for a band of decent snow somewhere. You seem slightly invested in this one? I should probably take a look at a map tomorrow maybe this is the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I thought the NAM was useless beyond 24hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You seem slightly invested in this one? I should probably take a look at a map tomorrow maybe this is the one! Invested might be a strong word...it's still a clipper/inverted trough...so there isn't a big storm here. But I'm still keeping my eye on this for more than coating to an inch event that most posters have already dismissed this as. Because we are relying on a strong vortmax tracking in a favorable spot, it can still crap out on us, but I can say fairly confidently that if a Euro or NAM upper air look happened, then we'd see more 2"+ totals than most are expecting looking at QPF maps. There's times when you slice the modeled QPF (often on SWFEs) and then there's times when you have to actually add some. (like on N or NW side of good ML fronto...or in this case, some ML fronto combined with strong PVA and a bit of instability) However, maybe we get a more strung out look like the GFS with the vort energy and all we get is a few snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I thought the NAM was useless beyond 24hrs? Yup. But, like the SREFS it can show trends This trended nicely but I still am banking on a Euroish solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Invested might be a strong word...it's still a clipper/inverted trough...so there isn't a big storm here. But I'm still keeping my eye on this for more than coating to an inch event that most posters have already dismissed this as. Because we are relying on a strong vortmax tracking in a favorable spot, it can still crap out on us, but I can say fairly confidently that if a Euro or NAM upper air look happened, then we'd see more 2"+ totals than most are expecting looking at QPF maps. There's times when you slice the modeled QPF (often on SWFEs) and then there's times when you have to actually add some. (like on N or NW side of good ML fronto...or in this case, some ML fronto combined with strong PVA and a bit of instability) However, maybe we get a more strung out look like the GFS with the vort energy and all we get is a few snow showers. BOX is in the Debbie camp with this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 BOX is in the Debbie camp with this as well There's no reason for them to forecast more than C-1" right now anyway. It's 48+ hours out and the bump higher would require a bit more confidence in the Nam or Euro vortmax track. Some are just basically 100% confident that its going to be basically nothing, which I think is wrong based on the information we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not nothing. I thought C- 2" all along. Like the 10 other events this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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