gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's pretty crazy how out of sync this winter has been for east half of the conus. We've had cold and we've had good precip up and down the coast. Get getting them to dance is like junior high. Cold on one side of the gym and precip on the other. Outside of mountains and lake belts, is any metro above normal east of the Rockies? I'm not sure any is above normal. Chicago and DC are perhaps the two closest by raw numbers for major metropolises that get snow . But obviously, percentage-wise, Chicago is much closer to season-to-date-average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think you're right, outside of Feb. 06 luck out or some minor miracle nothing big is in the cards for a while. Sure will have chances with the clippers and minor type stuff and probably a few intense cold shots. Not saying it won't snow at all the rest of this month just nothing decent is likely. I'm as positive as anyone and I'm not giving up. I just don't see a way out of this until Feb. Even JB's knees buckled today in one of his posts. I think you mentioned about the dry cold winter of 80/81 in one your post not too long ago. We may be going right for that. I quit smoking 2 years ago. This winter has tested my willpower. And herein lies the big difference between Northern MD and the DC area, once again. A dismal winter for DC is 3" total. I don't even look at 94/95 as terrible (~10" at DCA which was only 2" below median), and that was basically a two-event winter. Two events! So, from my perspective, we already have one event in the bank. Now, we have 9 weeks left to get anything we can get-- flukes, clippers, slop, combo of all, one moderate, two smaller, two moderate-- whatever it is. There's nothing that would rule out hitting median or even average yet for us lower-elevation folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And herein lies the big difference between Northern MD and the DC area, once again. A dismal winter for DC is 3" total. I don't even look at 94/95 as terrible (~10" at DCA which was only 2" below median), and that was basically a two-event winter. Two events! So, from my perspective, we already have one event in the bank. Now, we have 9 weeks left to get anything we can get-- flukes, clippers, slop, combo of all, one moderate, two smaller, two moderate-- whatever it is. There's nothing that would rule out hitting median or even average yet for us lower-elevation folk. the seasonal pattern would imho based on medium range guidance, between now and 2/1 could easily be a skunk....if that happens, we're left hoping for a fluke because most winters around here end mid-FEB; last year was the exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 the seasonal pattern would imho based on medium range guidance, between now and 2/1 could easily be a skunk....if that happens, we're left hoping for a fluke because most winters around here end mid-FEB; last year was the exception Definitely all about the pattern. Whether you're in Richmond or Boston there simply just has not been many chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FWIW baseball fans, Nats just signed Scherzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 the seasonal pattern would imho based on medium range guidance, between now and 2/1 could easily be a skunk....if that happens, we're left hoping for a fluke because most winters around here end mid-FEB; last year was the exception I'll go to the middle of you both. Gotta at least count thru P Day given history. March may be having a renaissance so should at least count thru Feb 35 or so as legit snow season. I know this is like the sun angle debate though and ppl are stubborn with their cut offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 the seasonal pattern would imho based on medium range guidance, between now and 2/1 could easily be a skunk....if that happens, we're left hoping for a fluke because most winters around here end mid-FEB; last year was the exception I'm not optimistic either.. but you're disagreeing that we can't rule out DC reaching median. Unless your definition of "ruling out" is something different than what I think is the standard usage of the phrase, then even the second part of your reply means you're not "ruling out" anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'll go to the middle of you both. Gotta at least count thru P Day given history. March may be having a renaissance so should at least count thru Feb 35 or so as legit snow season. I know this is like the sun angle debate though and ppl are stubborn with their cut offs. Maybe I presented myself as being more optimistic than I am... all I'm looking at is that DC is 9" away from median snowfall for the season. We aren't chasing any sort of futility record. A whole month between snows is normal for our city in a below average but not dismal season. 9" is a lot less than what someone in northern MD needs to reach median. And, that's really all I'm commenting about, regardless of the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No I agree we around the cities don't need to be too upset just yet. Only really need 2 more small to mod events to get into not hate ourselves territory for a winter. It would be disappointing not to get anymore snow this month if it came to that but still premature for now. Even if it didn't snow again this winter feels way better than the 2 prior to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No I agree we around the cities don't need to be too upset just yet. Only really need 2 more small to mod events to get into not hate ourselves territory for a winter. It would be disappointing not to get anymore snow this month if it came to that but still premature for now. Even if it didn't snow again this winter feels way better than the 2 prior to last. Yoinks, disagree. Right now we are level par with those two abominations in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No I agree we around the cities don't need to be too upset just yet. Only really need 2 more small to mod events to get into not hate ourselves territory for a winter. It would be disappointing not to get anymore snow this month if it came to that but still premature for now. Even if it didn't snow again this winter feels way better than the 2 prior to last. My point has nothing to do with averages or medians, although I do understand Gymengineer's point. My average is more than double yours but as of now I'm in the same boat as you. In fact most of the entire eastern 1/3 of the country is the same. It's not snowing anywhere. I would be thrilled with 2 more small to moderate events right now. Everyone involved just needs better opportunities to materialize and since we're not maxing out like last year in the current pattern hopefully a new one will show up and stick for a while. I am still very hopeful for Feb. I definitely agree this winter does not feel like the 2 previous to last year however in the snowfall department it is starting to become an uphill climb. The mid/late December threat fizzled, the system slated for the 23rd/24th does not appear it will make it north of the Carolina's, Wednesday's clipper has a lot going against it and even today a late developing coastal with a 100 mile wide band of heavy rain with no cold air to be found. Despite all this there will probably be 2 other chances before Jan. is over not including this Wednesday and there's always the chance that something pops up out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Sigh... what could have been on the EURO at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yoinks, disagree. Right now we are level par with those two abominations in my view. This year feels a lot like 2012-13, especially for me.... torch December followed by a cold, dry January. And just as I missed the Christmas week snows in December 2012, I missed the clipper a few weeks ago, so I haven't seen any measurable snow in well over a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This winter seems like Phoenix Wright (the game) in a sense.... with HOLD IT! TAKE THAT! OBJECTION! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 I hate being up early on my day off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I hate being up early on my day off I'm just the opposite. I like getting these days started early. Of course, when I say, "Started early," what I mean is sitting with a cup of coffee and the newspaper by a fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm just the opposite. I like getting these days started early. Of course, when I say, "Started early," what I mean is sitting with a cup of coffee and the newspaper by a fire. they still have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I would take sprinkles on Wed since we missed the rainer yesterday. Setting my bar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FWIW baseball fans, Nats just signed Scherzer Our rotation looks to be the best in baseball in 2015. Curious to see what they do with Zim and Desmond, since they'd likely need to trade them if we got the deal with Scherzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 they still have them? lol I was out of town for the weekend so yesterday's paper. I must be old because I like the real stuff over the digital version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Anyone else have problems w the twitter app? It constantly freezes on me and locks up the keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 gymengineer's cold ground theorem at work And judging by the obs from the short term thread, it's still going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm worried that for some weenie who's already teetering on the edge of insanity, the animated banner will be the final shove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ian and I will be doing a radio show on this later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ian and I will be doing a radio show on this later. bowlingseason.JPG That's some sexy vorticity. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's some sexy vorticity. All in. Run of the mill hecs with only 12-24" though. Might not draw much interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Run of the mill hecs with only 12-24" though. Might not draw much interest. Wake me when it shows 24 - 36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ian and I will be doing a radio show on this later. bowlingseason.JPG looks like a craftmatic adjustable bed in the "I'm reading my latest Prevention mag issue" position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nothing really changes for us who have the disease. I will look at every model run every day and stay up for the euro every night. No matter what the pattern is like. It is truly a sickness and I don't say that lightly. There is probably some psychiatric diagnosis for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think a january thaw could help things here. Might shakeup the atmosphere a bit and cause some deeper troughs going forward. It just seems like we're stuck in a pattern thats chilly but disorganized. Will be interesting to see if we can get a moderate event here given how things have progressed so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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