Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 When this dude forecasts assume the opposite @nynjpaweather: I have no doubt that Arctic cold is coming, but looks cold and dry. Why? He continued the thought in the next few tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This is how he answered his own rhetorical question: The PV is still too far north which means NAO is positive which means no blocking in Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This is how he answered his own rhetorical question: The PV is still too far north which means NAO is positive which means no blocking in Atlantic.I happen to agree with him on the cold and dry look. Nothing has changed model wise to indicate a stormy snowy look. I was kidding around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Clipper can bring 6-12" of snow to the region, I95 corridor and east. JUst watch the models change to a better situation for the clipper. This is a dangerous setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I happen to agree with him on the cold and dry look. Nothing has changed model wise to indicate a stormy snowy look. I was kidding aroundyes it certainly has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't think James is off his rocker on that statement. I still think it is an uphill battle but it is not impossible to envision a scenario where the clipper gives warning snows. That said, I'd slow down on that talk until we see more support at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It is certainly not a dangerous setup. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Proceed with caution. Dangerous snows directly ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 00Z NAM rolling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAM looks like it's going to come in decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't think James is off his rocker on that statement. I still think it is an uphill battle but it is not impossible to envision a scenario where the clipper gives warning snows. That said, I'd slow down on that talk until we see more support at 00z. I could also envision a scenario where Giselle Brady leaves Tom for Wiz...but it prob ain't happenjng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 nam is a little less amped and a little lighter on the QPF but still a pretty good track and decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 nam is a little less amped and a little lighter on the QPF but still a pretty good track and decent event.there's a clipper thread too now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 I could also envision a scenario where Giselle Brady leaves Tom for Wiz...but it prob ain't happenjng I wouldn't put the chances that remote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Quiet as a church mouse fart in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAVGEM for this weekend. Coastal hugger lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yea and gfs takes it from off the FL coast out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Quiet as a church mouse fart in here...Not a ton to talk about. GFS seems to be out to lunch. Euro not out until 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Not a ton to talk about. GFS seems to be out to lunch. Euro not out until 1. I haven't seen any particular reason why the GFS (oper.) is 'out to lunch' actually... It's been flat with the clipper all along, and now... the Euro's flatter, and so why isn't the Euro out to lunch? Not you per se ... but there is a tendency to pick and choose which runs align closer to desire, and then sans the other on auto-pilot. Be that as it may, there may be something more important ...at least more than a mere clipper, D7-9. Several 00z GEFs members offer up a Miller B or Miller A/B hybrid system, with a ridge position in the west that is more favorable for digging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I haven't seen any particular reason why the GFS (oper.) is 'out to lunch' actually... It's been flat with the clipper all along, and now... the Euro's flatter, and so why isn't the Euro out to lunch? Not you per se ... but there is a tendency to pick and choose which runs align closer to desire, and then sans the other on auto-pilot. Be that as it may, there may be something more important ...at least more than a mere clipper, D7-9. Several 00z GEFs members offer up a Miller B or Miller A/B hybrid system, with a ridge position in the west that is more favorable for digging in the east. Excpt the Euro isn't flatter as its come back NW. There's a clipper thread where we have been discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAVGEM for this weekend. Coastal hugger lol I don't have much experience in using this latest and greatest concept in Frankenmodeling ... but, sufficed it is to say, seeing as it was speciated out of two intrinsic pieces of sh!t, I cannot imagine that two wrongs would somehow make a right in this case... But hell...maybe it'll get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Excpt the Euro isn't flatter as its come back NW. There's a clipper thread where we have been discussing it. You're flat out wrong, lying or stupid... Not sure which. But two days ago the Euro was clipping the area with accumulating snow, and as of last night...it no longer was. Stop making crap up... 'Sides, you guys over there can talk yourselves into believing anything, so why bother - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You're flat out wrong, lying or stupid... Not sure which. But two days ago the Euro was clipping the area with accumulating snow, and as of last night...it no longer was. Stop making crap up... 'Sides, you guys over there can talk yourselves into believing anything, so why bother - I agree with you 100% on this. People are writing off the GFS because it is trendy to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nobody should be hugging or writing off any model. I mean in reality right now you are talking a coating vs maybe 1-2". It's not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5Mz0p0kgc4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nobody should be hugging or writing off any model. I mean in reality right now you are talking a coating vs maybe 1-2". It's not a big deal. all points considered in the last few posts... I don't weigh the gfs too much right now. It hasn't impressed, several have noted that already. euro does has accuming snows last night still for a lot of the area so he sorta confused me there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I agree with you 100% on this. People are writing off the GFS because it is trendy to do so.We'll see if euro or gfs is right with the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS had a bit of OES for ern areas especially SE, but both models aren't too impressive either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You are a complete tool. the Euro brings 1-2 inches pike south after being dry the last few runs Get a clue and a grip Yeah, we should all trust Kevin's razor sharp cutting insights into synoptic Meteorology -- considering how this run from two days ago was more amped than last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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