TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It was always after the clipper.So many have turned into buffoons people are understandably confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah, there is actually pretty decent model agreement for the offshore bomb. Basically day 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah, there is actually pretty decent model agreement for the offshore bomb. The Pacific Verbal Tsunamis Network has issued a false-optimism alert for "for this time range that is just where we want it" If you observe these words, move to higher ground ...lest risk drowning in dreamy elation only to wake up in the desert. J/k... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Basically day 7-8.I'm with you. The follow up storm does have a better overall chance it would seem. I'd be surprised if we don't get a good snow before Feb 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And if you were a "gambler" what are the chances of getting an event on the 26th??.......... A snow event? In this winter probably slim. In all seriousness, its early, anything can happen. That period seems to have a bit of support though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Right on cue euro has something nice brewing for 1/26, the date many picked for the beginning of the better snow pattern. Yea, I mentioned right after my melt that that is the first viable threat. My guess is out to see or a scrape....but its just that, a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's odd, though. The wave length appears too long. Ridge node at 120W and trough in the OV is ...heh. Also, with the NAO domain being so positive a west correct isn't impossible there. Talking about the first of the two amplitudes on this Euro. Not saying we are getting that storm, but personally the correction on future run is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 A snow event? In this winter probably slim. In all seriousness, its early, anything can happen. That period seems to have a bit of support though do the models you watch update "few times per day"? and is that the same for long range projections? thanks ahead of time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 do the models you watch update "few times per day"? and is that the same for long range projections? thanks ahead of time.. Twice a day 0z and 12z. EURO (runs 1am and 1pm) GEM/Canadian (runs 11am and 11pm) UKMET (not sure) Four times a day 0z 6z 12z 18z GFS (4:30am-10:30am-4:30pm-10:30PM) NAM (9:00am-3:00pm-9:00pm-3:00am) RGEM (not sure) WRF BTV (not sure) 2.5km RGEM (not sure) Hourly (Usually good for short term modeling within 6-12hrs, often can be wrong or inaccurate, sometimes invaluable) RAP HRRR Euro and GFS (GEM too, but no one really pays much attention) both run ensembles that come out an hour or two after. Ensembles are basically the same model run with different settings, run multiple times and then averaged together into a mean to give you a more accurate forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The kicker may scoot this offshore at the last moment. The GGEM and Euro now show something very close. It will fook this one unless we get it out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Twice a day 0z and 12z. EURO (runs 1am and 1pm) GEM/Canadian (runs 11am and 11pm) UKMET (not sure) Four times a day 0z 6z 12z 18z GFS (4:30am-10:30am-4:30pm-10:30PM) NAM (9:00am-3:00pm-9:00pm-3:00am) RGEM (not sure) WRF BTV (not sure) 2.5km RGEM (not sure) Hourly (Usually good for short term modeling within 6-12hrs, often can be wrong or inaccurate, sometimes invaluable) RAP HRRR Euro and GFS (GEM too, but no one really pays much attention) both run ensembles that come out an hour or two after. Ensembles are basically the same model run with different settings, run multiple times and then averaged together into a mean to give you a more accurate forecast. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro ensembles are a hit for the weekend event it appears. Lots of nice solutions in the individuals MSLP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's the control, not the ensembles. Mean snow on the ensembles would be a 2-4" deal verbatim for the 120-132 hour thing, but if you look at the individuals, there's a huge portion of them that has way bigger solutions. They also love the 180 hour threat as well, really nice clustering there. Wish I could post the individual MSLP maps, really really nice. Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's the control, not the ensembles. Mean snow on the ensembles would be a 2-4" deal verbatim for the 120-132 hour thing, but if you look at the individuals, there's a huge portion of them that has way bigger solutions. They also love the 180 hour threat as well, really nice clustering there. Wish I could post the individual MSLP maps, really really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It will be 1 storm. We never get hit with back to backs. Those always morph into one threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 my wife's due date is this weekend with my third son, it would only be appropriate if we got clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It will be 1 storm. We never get hit with back to backs. Those always morph into one threat We do from time to time, though. In 1996 we had back to back within 18 hours. That was the one that Jim Cantore was in Worcester in thundersnow. It was preceded less than 24 hour prior by a midland but potent burst of dynamic snows associated with a rapid deepening low that moved just S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We do from time to time, though. In 1996 we had back to back within 18 hours. That was the one that Jim Cantore was in Worcester in thundersnow. It was preceded less than 24 hour prior by a midland but potent burst of dynamic snows associated with a rapid deepening low that moved just S of LI.Dec 2008 had a good back to back storm I recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Dec 2008 had a good back to back storm I recall What were those dates... ? I want look 'em up in the Library/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What were those dates... ? I want look 'em up in the Library/NCEPI'm very bad with dates. Hopefully Will sees this. Try around the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm very bad with dates. Hopefully Will sees this. Try around the 21st. Yeah, it looks like later on the 19th/early 20th an NJ Model low went underneath... Followed 24 hours late on the 21st by a kind of "southwest flow" deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 All guidance has a very strong signal for the 27th, including the ensembles. Both the EPS mean and GEFS mean have a mslp of 1001mb, which is a pretty big signal for 8 days. I do wonder if in 4 days from now, we will be discussing the signal for the one after that. Always 8-10 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Superstorm of 93 had a positive AO and NAO...so you can get big/monster storms with that set up. But with that being said, this will find some way to NOT happen, and just become mood snow showers that dust the ground, and evaporate soon after. The 8-10 always looks nice in winters like this...that's what keeps us hanging on and hanging on lol. Like JC said, in four days this will be trending to a non event, and the 8-10 will have another nice look to it, and we start all over again. At some point, you would think the law of averages would have to Kick In.....right? Can you miss everything... for the whole season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The day 8 storm is the best signal all season so it's certainly one to watch. At least it's not in day 10 clown range. That's a good ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I agree Scott, sure hope it plays out in a favorable way. Would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The day 8 storm is the best signal all season so it's certainly one to watch. At least it's not in day 10 clown range. That's a good ridge out west.Hints of storminess around then and after... we'll watch and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It will be 1 storm. We never get hit with back to backs. Those always morph into one threathmm another old wife's tale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Superstorm of 93 had a positive AO and NAO...so you can get big/monster storms with that set up. But with that being said, this will find some way to NOT happen, and just become mood snow showers that dust the ground, and evaporate soon after. The 8-10 always looks nice in winters like this...that's what keeps us hanging on and hanging on lol. Like JC said, in four days this will be trending to a non event, and the 8-10 will have another nice look to it, and we start all over again. At some point, you would think the law of averages would have to Kick In.....right? Can you miss everything... for the whole season? Right, but it also went over Concord, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 hmm another old wife's tale it's not very common, but it does happen. Often it will end up as one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes it sure did go over Concord, N.H., ...changed me to sleet after 16 inches of powder. This is the winter of 1" snow storms though, so we shouldn't have to worry about anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.