TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes it sure did go over Concord, N.H., ...changed me to sleet after 16 inches of powder. This is the winter of 1" snow storms though, so we shouldn't have to worry about anything like that.[/img] You're frustrated with winter and this winter sucks. We get it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I got a quick look at weeklies. Not near a laptop to describe them, but looked like over -EPO. I think week 3 was more +PNA and then week 4 had a big AK ridge. No real SE ridge, so with any luck we can avoid a sheared mess. Wasn't ice cold verbatim either, which may be a good trade off. Seemed sufficiently cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You're frustrated with winter and this winter sucks. We get it now. It's s frustrating winter for most in sne. I feel like the guy talking to his bat in the movie Major League. Me to ole man winter: the whole season is riding on this storm of the 27th. You better come through....if not....fuk ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 LMAO...great one Jerry...I liked that movie. Keep talking to Old Man Winter pal, maybe it will help? Certainly can't hurt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 By my count, fully one half of the GEFS members now have at least an advisory event for this weekend, with four out of those twelve being at least warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like we have two events that we need to keep a close eye on. One this weekend for late on the 24th and into the 25th. The next being early next week for the 27th. The weekend storm looks like it could be quite strong and would bring significant impacts if it were to hit. But right now by my count as of the latest run of the Euro ensemble members 6 or 7 of the 51 members were significant hits. At the same time though many many others were VERY close to being significant. I would like to take the Euro control run and shift it 150 miles northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That storm for this weekend is going to be close. Maybe we can finally catch a break and get a little event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like the Monday look better...this weekend looks like we'd need more breaks to get it to snow a significant amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like we have two events that we need to keep a close eye on. One this weekend for late on the 24th and into the 25th. The next being early next week for the 27th. The weekend storm looks like it could be quite strong and would bring significant impacts if it were to hit. But right now by my count as of the latest run of the Euro ensemble members 6 or 7 of the 51 members were significant hits. At the same time though many many others were VERY close to being significant. I would like to take the Euro control run and shift it 150 miles northwest. does southern NH get any of the "two" chances? or we talking coastal regions south? Based on what you see? ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yep, agree Will. I really think it's not worth getting excited over as far as the weekend goes. Next week looks like a better shot with that nice PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The weekend looks interesting but it's really going to take a lot of work in this setup to get that low all the way up the coast. The 2nd system slated for the 26-27 is modeled to develop at a much further north latitude,and with a more impressive PNA signal at that time, I would tend to agree with Scott and Jay that this potential has the most merit. That is not to say that the 1st system can't really nuke out and trend further west, but I just have a hard time seeing it right now. Of course the weenie in me is routing for a big one this weekend. Back in April, I jokingly teased my wife that we were going to have a blizzard baby back when I found out her due date was the 24th of January. That would be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Then it does it again at hour 186 and crushes everyone this time , 975 off of ACY at the longitude of Cape Cod to 973 at the BM. Warning snows for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Then it does it again at hour 186 and crushes SNE again, 975 off of ACY at the longitude of Cape Cod. Warning snows for all.first one only hit Cape Cod Ma with 8-10 with 2-4 to RI but man what a huge model flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 first one only hit Cape Cod Ma with 8-10 with 2-4 to RI but man what a huge model flip I'd find it hard to believe that a low in that position wouldn't produce nice snows for the region, H5 looked near perfect to me. Don't know and am too tired to look at it to see why it didn't have that verbatim, but regardless, what a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man o man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro run out of Sir James basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, the track of the low on the first one is near perfect, almost exactly what you'd want to see but the qpf is tucked really tight to the low, something funky goin on there. Right now placement and strength are the most important features at the surface imo, we can hammer out the other details as it comes closer. sub 970 first low, ~976 second low, impressive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, the track of the low on the first one is near perfect, almost exactly what you'd want to see but the qpf is tucked really tight to the low, something funky goin on there. Right now placement and strength are the most important features at the surface imo, we can hammer out the other details as it comes closer. sub 970 first low, ~976 second low, impressive run first low is pretty far SE, dynamics concentrated offshore, little inflow outside the ccb which hits Cape Cod MA, second low is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NW trend time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro Ensembles like both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is awesome, the winter is finally approaching us, but do we warm up in time for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I wouldn't get over your weenie heads yet as they both could still be a little too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah. I am worried that they whiff if they even keep together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 does southern NH get any of the "two" chances? or we talking coastal regions south? Based on what you see? ty Southern NH definitely has a chance with both chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'd find it hard to believe that a low in that position wouldn't produce nice snows for the region, H5 looked near perfect to me. Don't know and am too tired to look at it to see why it didn't have that verbatim, but regardless, what a run. This was my though exactly. I like to look at the 500 charts first before checking surface. And when I looked at the Euro 500 my thought was wow.....looks like we should get smoked by both systems. But then the surface map (specifically the precip depiction) for the first low was a bit of a head scratcher. But let's not worry about that now. Let's just focus on keeping these two systems within striking distance. How many model runs left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's usually never a good thing to have a low in Quebec preceding the one like we are seeing Saturday. It's means we have WAA preceding the low which is why it's borderline rain on the coast and rain on the Cape. It also means the pattern is still progressive. This is why I'm not sold on the Saturday deal at this time. I'm definitely more interested in the second low as that has more working for it on MOnday. I certainly would not rule out Saturday night, but I just feel like it's not the best look for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So let's see..the clipper misses to the south..the weekend system is a rainer...only one way for the early week system to go next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So let's see..the clipper misses to the south..the weekend system is a rainer...only one way for the early week system to go next week Dude, read a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 first one only hit Cape Cod Ma with 8-10 with 2-4 to RI but man what a huge model flip first low is pretty far SE, dynamics concentrated offshore, little inflow outside the ccb which hits Cape Cod MA, second low is a beast Cape Cod where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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