ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just compared the 0z gfs to 6z. And 6z took a huge jump north and west for the weekend storm 0Z EURO and 6z GFS are so different today! A completely different outlook. Gfs looks relatively dry while Euro has a parade if storms near the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Emotions > science.Its not going to snow this weekend or next week. I'm sorry if models are fooling you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Do the OPs reflect -PNA, +ao +NAO ? Yeah right now the AO is negative and most of us are not in the freezer. I think you guys are putting too much stock in where those teleconnections are on a certain date and not looking at the overall state of flux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only need to look at this past weekend. Amplified storms are ignored if they aren't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 do we have at least a 60 per. chance of a storm hitting the area by end of january based on the activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah right now the AO is negative and most of us are not in the freezer. I think you guys are putting too much stock in where those teleconnections are on a certain date and not looking at the overall state of fluxMaybe. I'm not calling anything yet. Maybe a -PNA will help bring the storm track west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 do we have at least a 60 per. chance of a storm hitting the area by end of january based on the activity? How in the Hell would you expect anyone to calculate that? You are banned. Banned forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 How in the Hell would you expect anyone to calculate that? You are banned. Banned forever. Take it easy on the newbies Grinch. Not every new member likes it rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I've yet to see anyone prove anything thru science why these next 2 storms will hit when the base state is the same as it's been all winter. Why should these all of a sudden hit in a persistent pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 do we have at least a 60 per. chance of a storm hitting the area by end of january based on the activity? Pattern is favorable for a system or 2 along the eastern seaboard. Whether or not they amplify enough to impact the Northeast remains to be seen. We should know in a couple days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 if you look at the Euro teleconnections it is definitely showing a more positive PNA, yesterday it was showing a bigger spike during the second storm and now it is showing a slightly bigger spike for the first storm. there's obviously disagreement about what the state of the PNA will be on different guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its not going to snow this weekend or next week. I'm sorry if models are fooling you Nice reverse psychology pal, we all know what you're doing...I think we all hope it works. Maybe if you say it enough, the Snow Gods will pull the Irony card, and allow it to snow with these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Taking a closer glance at the individual Euro Ensemble members it appears that we doubled the number of members last night hat depicted a substantial impact. By my count we had 6 or 7 members yesterday afternoon. Last night we had 12 or 13 members. Yes. Desperate times call for desperate measures. And counting individual members is desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM is a pretty good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Im starting to get interested in this! Someone should start a thread for it Taking a closer glance at the individual Euro Ensemble members it appears that we doubled the number of members last night hat depicted a substantial impact. By my count we had 6 or 7 members yesterday afternoon. Last night we had 12 or 13 members. Yes. Desperate times call for desperate measures. And counting individual members is desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice reverse psychology pal, we all know what you're doing...I think we all hope it works. Maybe if you say it enough, the Snow Gods will pull the Irony card, and allow it to snow with these threats.I swear on my kids .. I am serious. The pattern is the same. Nothing is different. The euro has done this all winter. It's not an amplified pattern. All we are seeing are people thinking it's going to snow based on wishing. No one has been able to offer any scientific reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I bet the DGEX has a bomb without even looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Take it easy on the newbies Grinch. Not every new member likes it rough. I don't necessarily favor attempting the task of answering them as though the question was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I've yet to see anyone prove anything thru science why these next 2 storms will hit when the base state is the same as it's been all winter. Why should these all of a sudden hit in a persistent pattern? Nobody is trying to "prove" that they will hit. That is the flawed way you think. You want deterministic solutions at a timeframe that is totally unreasonable. The much more amplified western ridge increases the chance though at a coastal amplifying into an impact storm. That is met 101. It's something that happened multiple times last winter. How do you think we got all that snow with such little Atlantic blocking? Magic? But other factors like shortwave nuances and spacing of shortwaves are not predictable at 6-8 days out. Those are important too in determining whether a storm hits or not. Sorry but that is just the way it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Im starting to get interested in this! Someone should start a thread for it KOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM is a pretty good hit If this happens I'm calling it the NavGEM storm, its almost persistently had some sort of storm close to the coast for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ya looks good lol I bet the DGEX has a bomb without even looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't necessarily favor attempting the task of answering them as though the question was a good one. You should try. Not everyone is as astute as you at the science of weenieology. It make make your day even more rewarding, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If this happens I'm calling it the NavGEM storm, its almost persistently had some sort of storm close to the coast for daysSo did the srefs for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KOD So much superstition among men who are allegedly of science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I realize that alot of the negativity is because we are all a lil Gunshy. Many threats this season to date, very very few wintry results. So that's where the desperation over the Clipper has come in. In a winter of miss after miss, a lil clipper with a coating to an inch is coveted. If the weekend and early next week threats are Legit, most everybody will gladly sacrifice the lowly Clipper for a shot at something really meaningful. But imo, I think many feel that we are chasing ghosts with these Monster Storm depictions, and the clipper could have given us 1-3 inches had it played out right, which would have gone a long way in making many feel a bit better about the winter so far. And now we miss the lil clipper, and if we miss the weekend, and next week, it will be a Disaster in here with 3 whiffs!! Nothing much we can do, but sit back and watch how it will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You should try. Not everyone is as astute as you at the science of weenieology. It make make your day even more rewarding, I try, instead, to discourage such questions by pointing out their ineptitude regardless of experience. It's impossible to ask if there's a "60% chance" of something happening when you don't establish what exactly needs to happen for it to count. Technically, several storms have already hit "the area." The last one just brought rain to most. You can leave a teat exposed to the dry chill that the noobs should nurse from it and nourish their mediocrity. Here, in the winter of our discontent, I shall coddle nothing. As is tradition! Long live the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So much superstition among men who are allegedly of science.Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I realize that alot of the negativity is because we are all a lil Gunshy. Many threats this season to date, very very few wintry results. So that's where the desperation over the Clipper has come in. In a winter of miss after miss, a lil clipper with a coating to an inch is coveted. If the weekend and early next week threats are Legit, most everybody will gladly sacrifice the lowly Clipper for a shot at something really meaningful. But imo, I think many feel that we are chasing ghosts with these Monster Storm depictions, and the clipper could have given us 1-3 inches had it played out right, which would have gone a long way in making many feel a bit better about the winter so far. And now we miss the lil clipper, and if we miss the weekend, and next week, it will be a Disaster in here with 3 whiffs!! Nothing much we can do, but sit back and watch how it will play out. That's fine if people are disappointed or gunshy. Just post the emotional-based reasoning and similar posts in the banter thread and not in other threads. It gets old reading "this winter sucks so the next storm will be a fail of course" on a science forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I swear on my kids .. I am serious. The pattern is the same. Nothing is different. The euro has done this all winter. It's not an amplified pattern. All we are seeing are people thinking it's going to snow based on wishing. No one has been able to offer any scientific reason why. It's not an amplified pattern? Look at Sunday, that amplified just fine. It's not just one thing that has done us in this season so far Kevin. It's been different things at different times. With a positive NAO, you run the risk of cutters, you said just the opposite a few posts back...that with no blocking, the storms go out to sea. If they phase to fully/much they amplify and go west. If they don't phase enough, OTS. The trough axis to far east, OTS. No cold air...rain. No PNA spike, OTS. We've had it all this year...different problems at different times. That's just the way the ball bounces. Everyone is a lil sick of it...but what can you do?? Maybe we catch a break and the ball bounces our way one of these times...or NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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