TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEM verbatim doesn't look great for SNE with the clipper, but it develops into a pretty decent system not too far off shore. Over 100 hours out still. Lots of time to go either way. Edit: not quite 100 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEM also brushes us with the late week/weekend coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 EURO says congrats DC with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro for the clipper is advisory snow to DC up to PHL. Whiffs north of there...well some very slight stuff in NJ but nada NYC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro and GGEM are similiar. Good hit with the clipper for the mid atlantic ( Philly and DC). NYC gets a little snow. Boston is high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro and GGEM are similiar. Good hit with the clipper for the mid atlantic ( Philly and DC). NYC gets a little snow. Boston is high and dry. Verbatim NYC flurries and dry north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Verbatim NYC flurries and dry north. Yep. Looks like the GGEM. Onto the 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Fwiw GEFS looks decent for the clipper for most of New England. Yup. Would like to see the individuals(Not out yet on ewall for some reason) to see if it's one crazy member skewing the mean or if it's legitimately good, but on the surface it looks nice. Looks like a lot of spread which is unsurprising considering the shifts we've seen recently. Meanwhile, EURO is brutal: Warning snows for DC and freezing cold and dry for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yikes, thats actually not what I was expecting. Go figure, other models improve for the area and the Euro gets worse. Winter 14-15. Not sure what to think at this point. Would be lol worthy if DC has 2 events bigger than any most in SNE have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Good night. Hope for warmth at this point but I'm not getting that either...lol.. Dry or wet, my feeling is that cold will be the constant for weeks to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yup. Would like to see the individuals(Not out yet on ewall for some reason) to see if it's one crazy member skewing the mean or if it's legitimately good, but on the surface it looks nice. Looks like a lot of spread which is unsurprising considering the shifts we've seen recently. Meanwhile, EURO is brutal: Warning snows for DC and freezing cold and dry for us. It's this. Looks like it's not extreme as one member going crazy but the majority of them are dry/nothing and just a couple members are strongly redeveloping it up the coast and throwing tons of moisture inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro Op stinks for SNE. If its right than another 7-10 days of deep winter could be wasted with a southern slider folliwed by a cutter. Disheartening if that verifies. Hopefully its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yikes, thats actually not what I was expecting. Go figure, other models improve for the area and the Euro gets worse. Winter 14-15. Not sure what to think at this point. Would be lol worthy if DC has 2 events bigger than any most in SNE have seen. This thing is fickle depending on two things, that vort thats immediately behind it over the Midwest and that small lobe of energy over SRN Canada...the GFS sees that lobe too but still turns the clipper up the coast, it appears to me what kills it on the Euro is not so much the lobe of energy over SRN Canada but the upstream disturbance over Minnesota disrupting the downstream chance to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's this. Looks like it's not extreme as one member going crazy but the majority of them are dry/nothing and just a couple members are strongly redeveloping it up the coast and throwing tons of moisture inland. The spread is big at 84 hours...6 members are more amplified than the Op GFS, 2 are so amplified they almost look like they're going to produce a cutter...4 are less amplified, 2 are almost identical. At 96 hours those previous 2 members I mention have big storms, both deep lows near CC...the 4 less amped members practically have no storm at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro Op stinks for SNE. If its right than another 7-10 days of deep winter could be wasted with a southern slider folliwed by a cutter. Disheartening if that verifies. Hopefully its wrong.its been dead until last week of jan for a few days now. Clipper tracking at 100 plus hours out has fail written all over it. It is what it is. We've been in the pattern thread talking about how it doesn't look perfect but better past the 23rd on the ensembles. I woulda thought we might have something more positive to track by now but there was red flags from the beginning. I'm not on the winter fail train yet. As we discussed earlier we are about one good solid storm from getting back to average seasonal totals to current date. clipper could still be a nice little event south of pike but we'll see if it comes back. I don't think it will. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The spread is big at 84 hours...6 members are more amplified than the Op GFS, 2 are so amplified they almost look like they're going to produce a cutter...4 are less amplified, 2 are almost identical. At 96 hours those previous 2 members I mention have big storms, both deep lows near CC...the 4 less amped members practically have no storm at all!Verbatim : Clipper track isn't settled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There are some amped members of the various ensembles but the but the trend look south for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I can't see members but the mean still grazes SNE. I definitely would still watch this south of the pike. There are a few to perhaps several chances down the road after the clipper that look a lot bigger than a meager clipper that you guys are noose tying over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS looks good with the clipper as of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well that's been the worry and fear all along..that it would go south of us and hit DC again with the 3-6 that we were supposed to get..We stated why that could happen. That said there's a fair chance it still gets advisory snows to the pike with lighter amounts north of that.. But people shouldn't be surprised things went south on the Euro If this winter isn't an example of why you forecast with persistence ..I don't know what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Awesome miller B signal on the EURO ensembles last night for you guys in SNE at Day 8-9. I'm surprised the mean is so clear about that and not more diffuse. The individuals have some solid hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The GFS went back to shredded again..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well that's been the worry and fear all along..that it would go south of us and hit DC again withe 3-6 that we were supposed to get..We stated why that could happen. That said there's a fair chance it still gets advisory snows to the pike with lighter amounts north of that.. But people shouldn't be surprised things went south on the Euro Ironically the s/w dug more....it wasn't exactly suppression that really caused it. We'll see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well that's been the worry and fear all along..that it would go south of us and hit DC again with the 3-6 that we were supposed to get..We stated why that could happen. That said there's a fair chance it still gets advisory snows to the pike with lighter amounts north of that.. But people shouldn't be surprised things went south on the Euro If this winter isn't an example of why you forecast with persistence ..I don't know what is Tonight's system is so amped up it's blocking/forcing the next one south. Your persistence was that it wouldn't amp because everything has been weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Man, euro has been pretty bad in the mid range this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Tonight's system is so amped up it's blocking/forcing the next one south. Your persistence was that it wouldn't amp because everything has been weak.Yes. His reasoning is backwards. Last week I kept saying that we want the MLK storm less amped to allow the clipper more room to amplify. These more amped MLK solutions are hurting the clipper now by forcing it south. The MLK storm acts like a 50/50 low on steroids. It will be a close call though. We probably won't know if the clipper misses or not until tonight's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yes. His reasoning is backwards. Last week I kept saying that we want the MLK storm less amped to allow the clipper more room to amplify. These more amped MLK solutions are hurting the clipper now by forcing it south. The MLK storm acts like a 50/50 low on steroids. It will be a close call though. We probably won't know if the clipper misses or not until tonight's runs. I was right about it being south but for the wrong reason. We know the clipper is a miss. There's no reason to hope or think it still has a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I was right about it being south but for the wrong reason. We know the clipper is a miss. There's no reason to hope or think it still has a chance It also dug farther south and now is a formidable low, not a mess anyways. I mean it's just a clipper. It's not like you are missing a 12" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It also dug farther south and now is a formidable low, not a mess anyways. I mean it's just a clipper. It's not like you are missing a 12" storm.It was supposed to be a 2-4 or 3-6 decent storm. Everyone said it looks great, it's sharp etc. that's not meant to criticize anyone. It's just a bitter pill to swallow even though I should have followed my own advice and assumed it was going to crush south of us. . I just hope people aren't thinking it still has a chance. It doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Any word on the end of the week coastal for next weekend from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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