CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well after the worrying yesterday, EC cooled off by a decent amount in the long range, Also look good for the clipper as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well after the worrying yesterday, EC cooled off by a decent amount in the long range, Also look good for the clipper as well.gfs ensembles nice too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 EURO looked good with the clipper, I don't see how thermal fields on the EURO would support anything but snow with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 6z GFS has a redeveloping surface low associated with great PVA and vort max that strengthens running through south of SNE. Surface cyclogenesis happens a bit too far southeast to impact SNE with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Gfs has really wide swings, I don't know how pros can rely on it for their forecasts. New upgrade fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I agree! Was listening to our am station, WTIC1080 this morning and the the MET Sam Samperi said no snow events/storms in sight over the next 5-6 days for SNE. He said that the clipper looks to be pretty much nothing now. Must be going by the new GFS for his forecast cuz that shows nothing. After reading on here that the clipper looks decent on the euro, he must be discounting the euro. I was surprised, because he is usually a very good MET. Maybe he will be right and the clipper will be nothing, but other modeling still has it as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well after the worrying yesterday, EC cooled off by a decent amount in the long range, Also look good for the clipper as well. Ensembles look really stormy. It's like redeveloper after redeveloper going on. I feel like one of those has a good chance of working out. Clipper looks great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Ensembles look really stormy. It's like redeveloper after redeveloper going on. I feel like one of those has a good chance of working out. Clipper looks great too. That was my first thought too. You can also tell by looking at the GEFS members. It's usually a good sign if they all show something, even if it's at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I agree! Was listening to our am station, WTIC1080 this morning and the the MET Sam Samperi said no snow events/storms in sight over the next 5-6 days for SNE. He said that the clipper looks to be pretty much nothing now. Must be going by the new GFS for his forecast cuz that shows nothing. After reading on here that the clipper looks decent on the euro, he must be discounting the euro. I was surprised, because he is usually a very good MET. Maybe he will be right and the clipper will be nothing, but other modeling still has it as of now. Yea he usually finds a reason to chuck a few weenies not today though pretty depressing forecast by him lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Ensembles look really stormy. It's like redeveloper after redeveloper going on. I feel like one of those has a good chance of working out. Clipper looks great too.it's Miller B heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Ensembles look really stormy. It's like redeveloper after redeveloper going on. I feel like one of those has a good chance of working out. Clipper looks great too. Yeah, I intimated as much just a while ago in the other thread. The NAO briefly negatizes (nyuk nyuk) before resuming the erstwhile predominating positive, and the PNA and EPO are switching... Any system passing through that transom might avail of larger scaled advection terms... The arriving -EPO would hypothetically load cold, ... the GFS more than the Euro has been chomping at the bit to thrust those blue air masses into the CONUS. Time will tell, but continental cooling about the 40th parallel would high confidence and we see where we go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I agree! Was listening to our am station, WTIC1080 this morning and the the MET Sam Samperi said no snow events/storms in sight over the next 5-6 days for SNE. He said that the clipper looks to be pretty much nothing now. Must be going by the new GFS for his forecast cuz that shows nothing. After reading on here that the clipper looks decent on the euro, he must be discounting the euro. I was surprised, because he is usually a very good MET. Maybe he will be right and the clipper will be nothing, but other modeling still has it as of now. He is a complete buffoon when it comes to forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 to the mets, are you talking about a clipper on "wed"? will it effect southern NH, or south of us? ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Ensembles look really stormy. It's like redeveloper after redeveloper going on. I feel like one of those has a good chance of working out. Clipper looks great too. The clipper given the setup at 500mb should be better developed than it has been on most of the Op runs, this thing has potential to really become something somewhat significant in the next 2 days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 to the mets, are you talking about a clipper on "wed"? will it effect southern NH, or south of us? ty Yes, as of now it has the potential to effect SNH with a light snowfall. It could move over SNE or pass well south at this stage. Still kind of early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yes, as of now it has the potential to effect SNH with a light snowfall. It could move over SNE or pass well south at this stage. Still kind of early. I think its going to end up south, it won't be as far south as the last one but may be close, but I have a feeling it will turn the corner once off the NJ coast and give a decent snowfall up there, at least for places S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 thank you to all that answered..as our "newer" wheel loader sits.....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS now shifts south with that clipper after bring it to VT at 18z. Good consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Man this model is a mess with the Pacific. Now, boosts AK ridge again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Man this model is a mess with the Pacific. Now, boosts AK ridge again. Maybe it's just catching on to its' own ensemble mean re the emerging -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Maybe it's just catching on to its' own ensemble mean re the emerging -EPO I just don't know what to think about this op run after the upgrade. Seems unstable at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I just don't know what to think about this op run after the upgrade. Seems unstable at times. And what's up with the hyper resolution beyond 180 hours? The model use to lose detail and "smooth" out contouring and events at that particular time interval, but now it attempts to take the detail to 384?! I'm like ...really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 And what's up with the hyper resolution beyond 180 hours? The model use to lose detail and "smooth" out contouring and events at that particular time interval, but now it attempts to take the detail to 384?! I'm like ...really - We can now throw out the long range entirely. Can you imagine the fictional patterns this new gfs is going to cook up with all the small errors growing exponentially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 We can now throw out the long range entirely. Can you imagine the fictional patterns this new gfs is going to cook up with all the small errors growing exponentially? Case in point: check out this 384 our super detail up along the NE coast... This thing has a epic nor-easter associated, too. C'mon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Case in point: check out this 384 our super detail up along the NE coast... This thing has a epic nor-easter associated, too. C'mon man haha if only we were accurate in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I just don't know what to think about this op run after the upgrade. Seems unstable at times. But at least it has a better handle at 500mb than the old one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Case in point: check out this 384 our super detail up along the NE coast... This thing has a epic nor-easter associated, too. C'mon man Yesterday it had 2 HECS for BTV in one run past hour 300, lol. It's going to have fantasy storms galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well the science has to advance somehow with numerical modeling, and it also benefits the ensembles too. I guess the issue may be more the op run for now. I'm just a little cautious with this beyond day 4...as you normally should be anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Maybe NCEP is setting up some framework for a top secret future change in the technology of modeling/forecasting... They've found away to detect quantum fractal process emergence, and are planning on applying that as a correction scheme, and when they do, D9 forecast suddenly surge to 88% proficiency... I'd hate that. Part of the fascination with weather is that despite the similarities in events, regardless of heat or cold, rain or snow, tornadoes or hurricane, nor'easters, floods, ice-storms or the incredibly rare event that a woman might find me attractive, there is always something different about them that gives them their own unique personality (so to speak...). Seriously, its the unknown element that's a goodly amount of the allure to the phenomenon of weather. To have a suspcions of an event, then verify is huge. But to just outright know? Like, no snow for 7 days, then snow on D8, this or that precise amount for this or that location, at this or that temperature, lasting this or that amount of time, ...do something else for a week, else waste ones time. That pretty much would be a reality that would close down interest for me. Alas! As technology and science and all that associated with Moore's Law continues to evolve, just such a reality is likely to transpire ... maybe not in our life times. Maybe so. But barring a calamity so dire is sets humanity back to the dark ages, the outcome of discovery and advancement is otherwise unstoppable. Humans will never fly. The Earth is flat. The Earth revolves around the Sun. The Earth is the center of the Universe. And technology will never concur the wind. Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Maybe NCEP is setting up some framework for a top secret future change in the technology of modeling/forecasting... They've found away to detect quantum fractal process emergence, and are planning on applying that as a correction scheme, and when they do, D9 forecast suddenly surge to 88% proficiency... I'd hate that. Part of the fascination with weather is that despite the similarities in events, regardless of heat or cold, rain or snow, tornadoes or hurricane, nor'easters, floods, ice-storms or the incredibly rare event that a woman might find me attractive, there is always something different about them that gives them their own unique personality (so to speak...). Seriously, its the unknown element that's a goodly amount of the allure to the phenomenon of weather. To have a suspcions of an event, then verify is huge. But to just outright know? Like, no snow for 7 days, then snow on D8, this or that precise amount for this or that location, at this or that temperature, lasting this or that amount of time, ...do something else for a week, else waste ones time. That pretty much would be a reality that would close down interest for me. Alas! As technology and science and all that associated with Moore's Law continues to evolve, just such a reality is likely to transpire ... maybe not in our life times. Maybe so. But barring a calamity so dire is sets humanity back to the dark ages, the outcome of discovery and advancement is otherwise unstoppable. Humans will never fly. The Earth is flat. The Earth revolves around the Sun. The Earth is the center of the Universe. And technology will never concur the wind. Okay. And tip will never conquer the the English language...j/k hahaI'll go with the euro for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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