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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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snow 88 says

 

 

                                                                                                                                                           :gun_bandana:                                                                                                                                                              

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Why are people writing off winter this early lol

Because it *feels* 2011-2012 redux. I'm starting to buy into the whole winter-karma thing. We need to balance the scales a bit. What concerns me, though, is that the same logic should hold true with tropical activity. Does this mean we're headed for an insanely active Atlantic hurricane season?

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Because it *feels* 2011-2012 redux. I'm starting to buy into the whole winter-karma thing. We need to balance the scales a bit. What concerns me, though, is that the same logic should hold true with tropical activity. Does this mean we're headed for an insanely active Atlantic hurricane season?

Im one of the few that would trade winter for an insanely active hurricane season.

I don't think that's likely.

Also the airmass at the end of the week will be colder then what we had in our warmest winters

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Im one of the few that would trade winter for an insanely active hurricane season.

I don't think that's likely.

Also the airmass at the end of the week will be colder then what we had in our warmest winters

 

Even 12-13 had a few days in the city with highs in the 20s and lows in the lower-mid teens.

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Even 12-13 had a few days in the city with highs in the 20s and lows in the lower-mid teens.

that winter had a cold/dry week somewhere around 1/20...I remember a week of subfreezing days, but it was cold and dry and the ground was bare.  The big blizzard (best east of NYC) hit just 2-3 weeks later and all was forgiven after a snowless first half

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN
   MA/DOWN EAST ME

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 030143Z - 030645Z

   SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
   FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ
   ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND.  ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING
   -- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
   THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
   ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT.  AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A
   SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO
   UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER
   THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. 

   ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --
   WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG
   ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

   LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL
   WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN
   CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE
   NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST
   ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND
   VICINITY.  THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND
   GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST
   WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF
   HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS
   AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED
   VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW.

 

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

NYZ078>081-177-179-030600-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1054 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND...

AT 1045 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW MOVING OFF THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST AND HEADED FOR
NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES. THE BAND SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LONG ISLAND BY 1130 AM AND OVERSPREAD MAINLY SOUTHERN NASSAU
AND MOST OF SUFFOLK COUNTY THROUGH 1 AM. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE CORE OF THE BAND. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AT TIMES WITH THIS BAND. PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY
HOME AND AVOID TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME.

$$

MALOIT

 

 

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The fact that Brooks was last cut on the 1960 team makes the 1980 story that much better too.

I don't remember any Americans who were on the 1960 team making the pros...granted there were less teams at the time...One example of pros on the 1980 team was Kenny Morrow who went to the Islanders...He won the gold and the cup in the same year......

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Not that I disagree with you about an obs thread bc there really is nothing else going on but by "large chunk of the area", don't you mean 4 or so counties?

Yes I shouldn't have said large chunk, although those adviseries might be extended down another tier if the earlier arrival time verifies.
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Jb is going with 1-3 inches for the clipper and a big snowstorm next week

If the gfs op is correct then things don't look so bad. The clipper looks interesting and there's more chances afterwards. It develops more of a PNA which would help immensely and even though heights are above normal the low level cold is favorable enough for snows.

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yep, he says there's an upper feature the models won't get and there will be quite a snowstorm from the plains east... please let him verify for once!!!

I'm not seeing it, I could see 2-4 though if if tracks off CNJ since it'll throw back some Atlantic moisture...every 15-20 year we have a surprise clipper and we are way overdue so who knows. The last one I recall was in the 95-98 period it tracked off Delaware and redeveloped and some places down there saw 12-14 inches unforecast

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I'm not seeing it, I could see 2-4 though if if tracks off CNJ since it'll throw back some Atlantic moisture...every 15-20 year we have a surprise clipper and we are way overdue so who knows. The last one I recall was in the 95-98 period it tracked off Delaware and redeveloped and some places down there saw 12-14 inches unforecast

2-4 would be a HECS this winter. Going on 11 months here since my last inch of snow.    Wow-a foot of surprise snow...that must have been awesome.  Don't remember it personally.

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2-4 would be a HECS this winter. Going on 11 months here since my last inch of snow. Wow-a foot of surprise snow...that must have been awesome. Don't remember it personally.

I can't remember the year but it was coastal Delaware and Maryland and was totally unforecast other than an inch or two

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So I glanced at a 7-day forecast for NYC on one of the TV weather stations and I became very enthused and encouraged as I saw the arctic blast next week. So, I had to log on to these forums because I thought the January forecast changed with a -NAO a -AO finally developing towards mid-month. But, I became quickly depressed when I signed onto these forums as I learned that we will still torch 97-98 style after the 10th through the end of the month with no shot of snowfall.

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