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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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NEG NAO, on 01 Dec 2014 - 10:07 AM, said:snapback.png

you know what ? I think in order for this community be be a friendlier and more productive place to visit - since this post seems to be ruffling some feathers around here lets start debating his outlook more professionally and not just tell him to back away from the computer and that other nonsense - tell him why he is right or wrong without the personal attacks - just my opinion..

Its not about right and wrong its the overall negativity in the majority of his posts. Sure maybe he'll be right and we'll torch all winter and see no snow like 11-12 but constantly worrying about it isn't going to make a difference. He's been talking about his fears and worries about this winter for weeks on end. He's basically the opposite of snow88. Also overconfidence? Nobody came in here and said a classic end to end cold and snowy winter was on tap. In fact every forecast clearly stated 'what could go wrong' and why one can never guarantee such a scenario

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How's this for a winter? The 2.7" occured in March.

 

Central Park

 

1918-19  0    0    0    0    0    0.3   0.3   0.5   2.7    T    0    0     3.8

 

BTW, the following season they had 47.6"

 

These things can change on a dime.

 

that's an 01-02, 11-12 redux except the snow came in March and not January

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Whatever the winter may bring is, one thing's for certain... it is a veritable deluge of meltwater this morning

 

Its melting like crazy out there right now.. We still have a good amount out there. A nice 1-3" followed by some ice should give us in the interior a nice wintry feel for tomorrow into Wednesday. A nice start to winter!

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Its melting like crazy out there right now.. We still have a good amount out there. A nice 1-3" followed by some ice should give us in the interior a nice wintry feel for tomorrow into Wednesday. A nice start to winter!

Aye, especially since we were more-or-less resigned to a week or more of boredom. My existing snow is actually almost all gone, sans patches of ripe slush in shady places.

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I have the feeling this will be an interior winter with heartbreak and near misses for the coast.

Climo being climo. There is a reason why some places 50 miles NW of NYC average more than double what KNYC usually records. It only takes one or two big events to get above average. I'm really liking my call for most of the snow to be confinded to 3 or 4 larger events.

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I may be negative but it's not like there's no basis for it. If the winter is like 11-12 then so be it but it'll still be a major letdown given all the forecasts beforehand.

I have a feeling the negativity will spread when warm days like today continue deeper into the month and closer to the holidays. We no longer have the it's only November excuse and in a few weeks we won't have the climo excuse either.

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I may be negative but it's not like there's no basis for it. If the winter is like 11-12 then so be it but it'll still be a major letdown given all the forecasts beforehand.

I have a feeling the negativity will spread when warm days like today continue deeper into the month and closer to the holidays. We no longer have the it's only November excuse and in a few weeks we won't have the climo excuse either.

What`s the basis . Which of the physical drivers do you think have broken down for us ?  Serious question . Its Dec 1st. 

Not sure I follow what the basis is . 

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I may be negative but it's not like there's no basis for it. If the winter is like 11-12 then so be it but it'll still be a major letdown given all the forecasts beforehand.

I have a feeling the negativity will spread when warm days like today continue deeper into the month and closer to the holidays. We no longer have the it's only November excuse and in a few weeks we won't have the climo excuse either.

:cliff:

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What`s the basis . Which of the physical drivers do you think have broken down for us ? Serious question . Its Dec 1st.

Not sure I follow what the basis is .

Poor wording but the Euro MJO forecasts arent favorable and the ensembles continue to show positive anomalies. I know the monthly forecast torches us this entire month. The Mets don't look too thrilled to see what's going on towards the Aleutians and apparently it's throwing a monkey wrench into their forecasts as Earthlight stated.
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Poor wording but the Euro MJO forecasts arent favorable and the ensembles continue to show positive anomalies. I know the monthly forecast torches us this entire month. The Mets don't look too thrilled to see what's going on towards the Aleutians and apparently it's throwing a monkey wrench into their forecasts as Earthlight stated.

EURO hasnt exactly been stellar in the LR as has been noted by paul. Its corrected itself as its gotten closer to the eventual solution

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Poor wording but the Euro MJO forecasts arent favorable and the ensembles continue to show positive anomalies. I know the monthly forecast torches us this entire month. The Mets don't look too thrilled to see what's going on towards the Aleutians and apparently it's throwing a monkey wrench into their forecasts as Earthlight stated.

A few things . Its Dec 1 and not Jan 15 .  The MJO on the UKMET and the GFS take the MJO around through phase 7 8 . The Euro ensembles do take it into 6 and collapse it but that doesn`t mean the pattern will implode. ( That said we should warm for about 10 days ) . But what`s in betweeen . The difference in the MJO forecasts may be 2 see the Typhoon re curving the Euro does not .

 

Everyone keeps looking at the Euro ensembles for the torch and in the 11 -16 it does .However last week it flooded us with PAC air .

Look at the PNA  No where on any of the ensembles did you see this look at 500 MB  . This is now  the new  OP day 8 and 9 .

LR can change on a dime . 

Its early and to be honest I am not aware at any EPIC winter forecasts made . Many have said below normal temps with Above normal snow .

Not sure if you are expecting 77- 78 temps with 95- 96 amounts but I don`t know if I have seen that opined anywhere .

post-7472-0-13095500-1417460503_thumb.pn

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