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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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I just looked the 30th 12z - look warm from the 8th on . Can you grab from your end, for some reason I cant attach it . 

 

The lack of solid Greenland blocking showing up along with the tendency for the +EPO to emerge

will make a +1 with pacific air just as bad as an all out torch for snowfall prospects here.

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The lack of solid Greenland blocking showing up along with the tendency for the +EPO to emerge

will make a +1 with pacific air just as bad as an all out torch for snowfall prospects here.

 

For snow yes but plus 1 - 2 could get taken down from the 20th on if we stay close  I am more focused on the draws so maybe we are looking at things from a different perspective I am looking at HDD as the pattern interests me more than long tracking a storm  .

 

In terms of snow I  think the key for not losing all snowfall for Dec is to hang close through the 15-ish and not blow the departures apart and then as see we turn more favorable from the 20th on and  we recover.

 

Yes + 1 and + 5 may be the same  I am just not sure what we look like on the 15th as the LR warmth looks to only really take hold from the 10 to the 15 .Then I guess we will see if the analogs hold true and Jan and Feb mimic 03 - if Dec mimics 02 . 

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For snow yes but plus 1 - 2 could get taken down from the 20th on if we stay close  I am more focused on the draws so maybe we are looking at things from a different perspective I am looking at HDD as the pattern interests me more than long tracking a storm  .

 

In terms of snow I  think the key for not losing all snowfall for Dec is to hang close through the 15-ish and not blow the departures apart and then as see we turn more favorable from the 20th on and  we recover.

 

Yes + 1 and + 5 may be the same  I am just not sure what we look like on the 15th as the LR warmth looks to only really take hold from the 10 to the 15 .Then I guess we will see if the analogs hold true and Jan and Feb mimic 03 - if Dec mimics 02 . 

 

Yeah, I am talking about days 1-5 and 6-10 patterns with a transition to a more +EPO pattern and no solid Greenland

blocking becoming established. For longer range, it will take time for Canada to cool again once it warms up next week.

It can be a slow process getting Canada cold again once the colder than normal air that has been there recently

gets scoured out. 

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So long until the inevitable pattern push back. Clearly things won't be shifting much by mid December so most now say late December. I guess by mid December we'll be saying things will turn around by January and by mid January it'll be February and so forth until it's Spring. 

 

I think DT already pushed back to mid January who is next to follow.

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So long until the inevitable pattern push back. Clearly things won't be shifting much by mid December so most now say late December. I guess by mid December we'll be saying things will turn around by January and by mid January it'll be February and so forth until it's Spring.

I think DT already pushed back to mid January who is next to follow.

Serious question...why are you still posting then? How many more times can you post this?

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It's the banter thread. As long as I keep my thoughts away from the informative threads then it's no big deal. 

I agree with you 100 % - I think everyone is entitled to their own opinion especially in a banter thread - also I see no reason why an individuals post should be deleted because he is going against the popular thinking at the time . Only time a post should be deleted  or moved is if its banter in a primary thread such as the monthly thread or a current storm thread or the member is being rude to another member or posts something inappropriate for all ages viewing or forum rules.

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I agree with you 100 % - I think everyone is entitled to their own opinion especially in a banter thread - also I see no reason why an individuals post should be deleted because he is going against the popular thinking at the time . Only time a post should be deleted  or moved is if its banter in a primary thread such as the monthly thread or a current storm thread or the member is being rude to another member or posts something inappropriate for all ages viewing or forum rules.

Right. Incessant complaining is, however, quite obnoxious.

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SnoSki is literally having a days-long mental breakdown. Over a busted winter forecast. On December 2.

now this a prime example of a post that should be deleted in any thread - very rude.......think about it........this is how all the crap starts around here - would you want someone saying this too you ? Another thing would you say this to a person's face ?

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Man, some of you guys really need to think before you post especially in a thread that had such quality discussion as the one pinned in our forum. Totally bringing down the quality of the thread with posts like "all the cold is going into asia..december is in trouble". Cmon. 

I don't agree with you as of today  - no one has any idea yet exactly how much arctic air will be involved in the pattern here after mid month - too many conflicting signals as of right now....so they might be closer to the truth then others who knows ? Thats the reason I stated a few posts ago I am on the sidelines and am not going to declare the cold/snow crowd or mild/rain crowd a winner yet for the second half of the month

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now this a prime example of a post that should be deleted in any thread - very rude.......think about it........this is how all the crap starts around here - would you want someone saying this too you ? Another thing would you say this to a person's face ?

Yes, if my post quality begins to diminish (or if it sucks right now), I hope people tell me immediately.

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On another note don't most winter patterns lock in by late December? I've seen pattern shifts but large scale changes are not as common from December to Jan and Feb. I mean in order to get below normal temps and above average snow in January the pattern would basically have to do a complete 180 from what this month might become (warm to very warm).

 

How many times do we see a complete change from well above normal in December with well below to zero snow to below or well below temperatures in January to above to well above average snow?

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On another note don't most winter patterns lock in by late December? I've seen pattern shifts but large scale changes are not as common from December to Jan and Feb. I mean in order to get below normal temps and above average snow in January the pattern would basically have to do a complete 180 from what this month might become (warm to very warm).

 

How many times do we see a complete change from well above normal in December with well below to zero snow to below or well below temperatures in January to above to well above average snow?

 

There are plenty of examples of above normal December temperature patterns that drop to closer to normal or

even below normal in January. During El Nino winters, the biggest warm departures relative to the means typically

occur in December. So the above normal temperature look to the forecast through at least midmonth

is par for the course.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html

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It's the banter thread. As long as I keep my thoughts away from the informative threads then it's no big deal.

I didnt say it was a big deal...but it started out in other threads. But that wasnt my question...if you are already pretty sure of whats going to happen, why post (whine really, but im trying to be nice for neg nao's sake) over and over again? Its doesnt seem to be all that healthy.

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There are plenty of examples of above normal December temperature patterns that drop to closer to normal or

even below normal in January. During El Nino winters, the biggest warm departures relative to the means typically

occur in December. So the above normal temperature look to the forecast through at least midmonth

is par for the course.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html

so far everything is on par for an El Nino winter chris. the stratospheric cooling on that model today may be a concern but at this time and that range it doesn't look concerning at the moment

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Oh God now the JMA is being posted in this sub forum. It was worse that people were talking about the JMA in the New England forum. Its a joke of a model that shouldnt even be mentioned. Thanks for putting this in the banter,

It's possible since the pna is rising along with the mjo heading into favorable phases

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Oh God now the JMA is being posted in this sub forum. It was worse that people were talking about the JMA in the New England forum. Its a joke of a model that shouldnt even be mentioned. Thanks for putting this in the banter,

 

It *did* ferret out February 2006...(can't even recall the precise date of the most meaningless <or at least, quickest to vanish> one to two feet of snow in local history...I think it was closer to 14 inches out here).

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I am still waiting for 1996's snowfall with 1977's temperatures.  Is that too much to ask?

 

At this juncture, a synergy of even 1982-83's snowfall & 1983-84's temps would have to be deemed a distinct step up. 

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