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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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65F under mostly cloudy skies for December 1st, Welcome to Met winter?

You are terrible debbie downer my friend. I dont know what your logic is here but is flawed. 77'-78' had its breaks in between like we are seeing now ( not saying this winter is like that ). They're a few monkey wrenchs in the equation that could skew some cold/ snowy forecasts but none that ars substantial at the moment. Yes the feature NW asia could cause some concern but it looks to be transient ATM. Patience it is dec. 1st not Jan. 1st

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A recurving typhoon would be interesting and we saw what it could do to the overall pattern last month even though the pattern itself was already favorable enough to drive down the cold air and the typhoons effects just aided the cause.

I know JB said an extreme winter was possible but I do know many forecasters mentioned the possibility of an extreme winter though they went more conservative. All signs were textbook for such a forecast including the Eurasian record October snow cover, the +PDO, the textbook mid winter -NAO signature in the Atlantic, and the high possibility of a central to west based weak to moderate El Niño. I've read dozens of outlooks and each one stated the exact same thing but things can and do go wrong even if everything is seemingly perfect.

All in all it is still December 1st, it's not like we should expect snowstorms to keep hitting every week and highs in the 20s or 30s every day. I'm gonna give the forecasters the benefit of the doubt for a few weeks. I'll just read what they have to say for now.

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A recurving typhoon would be interesting and we saw what it could do to the overall pattern last month even though the pattern itself was already favorable enough to drive down the cold air and the typhoons effects just aided the cause.

I know JB said an extreme winter was possible but I do know many forecasters mentioned the possibility of an extreme winter though they went more conservative. All signs were textbook for such a forecast including the Eurasian record October snow cover, the +PDO, the textbook mid winter -NAO signature in the Atlantic, and the high possibility of a central to west based weak to moderate El Niño. I've read dozens of outlooks and each one stated the exact same thing but things can and do go wrong even if everything is seemingly perfect.

All in all it is still December 1st, it's not like we should expect snowstorms to keep hitting every week and highs in the 20s or 30s every day. I'm gonna give the forecasters the benefit of the doubt for a few weeks. I'll just read what they have to say for now.

He has - 2 and 133 % of normal (  40 inches ) . That`s his forecast  right or wrong - that`s not extreme . 

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A recurving typhoon would be interesting and we saw what it could do to the overall pattern last month even though the pattern itself was already favorable enough to drive down the cold air and the typhoons effects just aided the cause.

I know JB said an extreme winter was possible but I do know many forecasters mentioned the possibility of an extreme winter though they went more conservative. All signs were textbook for such a forecast including the Eurasian record October snow cover, the +PDO, the textbook mid winter -NAO signature in the Atlantic, and the high possibility of a central to west based weak to moderate El Niño. I've read dozens of outlooks and each one stated the exact same thing but things can and do go wrong even if everything is seemingly perfect.

All in all it is still December 1st, it's not like we should expect snowstorms to keep hitting every week and highs in the 20s or 30s every day. I'm gonna give the forecasters the benefit of the doubt for a few weeks. I'll just read what they have to say for now.

Ahhh the tone changes now, welcome back to earth my friend and just relax. Keep playing in your mind Weak El Nino years are backloaded (dec.20th and forward). This is pretty textbook thus far

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Ahhh the tone changes now, welcome back to earth my friend and just relax. Keep playing in your mind Weak El Nino years are backloaded (dec.20th and forward). This is pretty textbook thus far

I just need to stop looking at some of those current maps. They are like weenie mouse traps. I wish I hated snow and cold like most people it would make winter so much easier to go through.

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I just need to stop looking at some of those current maps. They are like weenie mouse traps. I wish I hated snow and cold like most people it would make winter so much easier to go through.

You need to stop looking at D 10 maps and taking them verbatim. You look at them and you see if they make sense factoring in atmospheric mechanisms. Many times you can what it shows in the GOA/WC doesnt make sense what it reflects on the EC and so on

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I just need to stop looking at some of those current maps. They are like weenie mouse traps. I wish I hated snow and cold like most people it would make winter so much easier to go through.

It would be easier to handle if your expectations were more realistic. Snow from Thanksgiving to St. Patricks Day is nothing more than a pipe dream. Even our snowiest Winters have had warm and dry periods. Storm chances will evenutally show up, the hope is that we take advantage of the oppertunites that present themselves.

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While we wait for the pattern to finish reloading, there are going to be a lot of people on edge in here. I'm still very confident once the cold air arrives, it will be here to stay with only brief relaxed periods during the duration of the winter. I'm more concerned about the atlantic blocking in the weeks and months ahead, or the lack thereof.

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While we wait for the pattern to finish reloading, there are going to be a lot of people on edge in here. I'm still very confident once the cold air arrives, it will be here to stay with only brief relaxed periods during the duration of the winter. I'm more concerned about the atlantic blocking in the weeks and months ahead, or the lack thereof.

You've forgotten the golden rules of being a NYC snow weenie...

 

December through March must feature nothing but cold and snowy. Anything less is considered a bust.

 

If it didn't snow on the coast, did it really snow at all?

 

45 degrees is considered a torch and 25 degrees is considered normal, even though the average high at KNYC is near 40F in January.

 

Anything less than a solid snowpack by Christmas is a bust.

 

Anything other than a -NAO/+PNA/+AO is considered a terrible pattern and should promptly be discarded

 

The potenital for a dusting 5 days out deserves its own dedicated storm thread

 

Any model that doesn't show snow for the coast is too warm.

 

Warm punches at the mid-levels are to be ignored, until the storm arrives and you're getting pinged to death.

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the younger crowd for the most part will be getting on edge here because they are not "seasoned" like us older AARP crowd - Uncle W. , the former William and myself - LMAO....

I'm not part of the select few who get to reap the benefits of deeply discounted McDonald's breakfasts yet :/ I am part of the 30 club though

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Snowfall For 2014-15 Season
As of December 1st, 2014

Caribou: 28.8"

Norfolk, CT: 16.3"

Concord, NH: 12.9"

Albany: 12.3"
Burlington, VT: 10.6"

Portland, ME: 10.2"

Scranton: 8.4"
Worcester: 7.2"

Allentown: 5.7"

Hartford: 5.1"

Boston: 2.6"

Washington Dulles: 1.6"

Providence: 1.6"

Newark: 1.4"

NYC LaGuardia: 0.4"
Baltimore BWI: 0.3"

Bridgeport: 0.2"
NYC Central Park: 0.2"
NYC JFK: 0.1"
Atlantic City: T
Washington National: T
Philadelphia: T
Richmond: T

Islip, NY: T

Upton, NY (NWS): T
Norfolk, VA: 0.0"          

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Snowfall For 2014-15 Season

As of December 1st, 2014Caribou: 28.8"

Norfolk, CT: 16.3"

Concord, NH: 12.9"

Albany: 12.3"

Burlington, VT: 10.6"

Portland, ME: 10.2"

Scranton: 8.4"

Worcester: 7.2"

Allentown: 5.7"

Hartford: 5.1"

Boston: 2.6"

Washington Dulles: 1.6"

Providence: 1.6"

Newark: 1.4"

NYC LaGuardia: 0.4"

Baltimore BWI: 0.3"

Bridgeport: 0.2"

NYC Central Park: 0.2"

NYC JFK: 0.1"

Atlantic City: T

Washington National: T

Philadelphia: T

Richmond: T

Islip, NY: T

Upton, NY (NWS): T

Norfolk, VA: 0.0"

Princeton: 2.9"

New Brunswick: 1.1"

Freehold: 0.6"

Scotch Plains: 42.8"

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Snowfall For 2014-15 Season

As of December 1st, 2014

Caribou: 28.8"

Norfolk, CT: 16.3"

Concord, NH: 12.9"

Albany: 12.3"

Burlington, VT: 10.6"

Portland, ME: 10.2"

Scranton: 8.4"

Worcester: 7.2"

Allentown: 5.7"

Hartford: 5.1"

Boston: 2.6"

Washington Dulles: 1.6"

Providence: 1.6"

Newark: 1.4"

NYC LaGuardia: 0.4"

Baltimore BWI: 0.3"

Bridgeport: 0.2"

NYC Central Park: 0.2"

NYC JFK: 0.1"

Atlantic City: T

Washington National: T

Philadelphia: T

Richmond: T

Islip, NY: T

Upton, NY (NWS): T

Norfolk, VA: 0.0"          

 

You have an obscene obsession with Norfolk, CT.

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