yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WSW at 4? Prob for i-81 corridor and west of BR... will probably wait for I-95 to BR counties IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Precip doesn't shut off till after 7pm. .3-.4 falls from 18-0z and .05+/- or so after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 H7 is totally fine. No signs of that going above freezing. 850's -1-2 at onset and drop a couple degrees. Surface 35-39 at onset but probably drop quick once the good rates kick in. 925mb below though we may flirt with it in the PM....still a long event, though shorter than before... 4am - 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 H7 is totally fine. No signs of that going above freezing. 850's -1-2 at onset and drop a couple degrees. Surface 35-39 at onset but probably drop quick once the good rates kick in. Sounds like a fantastic run. Euro's been pretty locked in on this for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 H7 is totally fine. No signs of that going above freezing. 850's -1-2 at onset and drop a couple degrees. Surface 35-39 at onset but probably drop quick once the good rates kick in. Can you recall if in any of the other similar storms the 850s were modeled to be -0C? Seems like there was a warm nose in the previous ones. This one has at or below freezing the whole time from what you are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think their algorithm is very sophisticated...I doubt they count heavy snow at 34....but that said, their snow line did come east from 0z which indicates that this run is slightly colder...which makes sense... Makes sense. It does look better than last night to me. I like it.. except for where I live kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In this case, the warm layer is at the surface, so light precip would be rain instead of IP/ZR. would that be the same with central moco and on north? one of the storms i'm thinking of was probably more rain in dc and then rockville (derwood, specifically) cashed in (this was back in early 90s maybe). i think they got about 5" whereas dc was like an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 anyone know why accuweather txt comes out so late now. it used to be really fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Slightly more digging with the second s/w has kicked the first s/w a little bit more on today's runs, all-around. It basically prevents an extremely wrapped-up/NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can you recall if in any of the other similar storms the 850s were modeled to be -0C? Seems like there was a warm nose in the previous ones. This one has at or below freezing the whole time from what you are saying Verbatim the only battle is the surface for most everyone 95-W. We all know who flips first and last. Accums close in dependent on rates of course. Precip is a uniform 1" from a line from FDK to CHO to the Bay. 1.1 jackpot centered over 95 itself and extends approx 1 county each way. Honestly, I'm pretty thrilled with the run. It has the ingredients to get stickage and iffy surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Quick and dirty, this is what I have in terms of QPF for DC...people can extrapolate from there...If we toss the outliers, around 0.8" which seems reasonable at this time.... 12z NAM: 0.65" 12z Hi-Res NAM - 1.2" 9z SREF: 1.2" 12z Euro: 1.0" 12z GFS: 0.5" 12z PARA: 0.7" 12z Canadian: 0.8" 12z GEFS: 0.7" 12 Canadian ENS: 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Verbatim the only battle is the surface for most everyone 95-W. We all know who flips first and last. Accums close in dependent on rates of course. Precip is a uniform 1" from a line from FDK to CHO to the Bay. 1.1 jackpot centered over 95 itself and extends approx 1 county each way. Honestly, I'm pretty thrilled with the run. It has the ingredients to get stickage and iffy surface temps. This is the key imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Verbatim the only battle is the surface for most everyone 95-W. We all know who flips first and last. Accums close in dependent on rates of course. Precip is a uniform 1" from a line from FDK to CHO to the Bay. 1.1 jackpot centered over 95 itself and extends approx 1 county each way. Honestly, I'm pretty thrilled with the run. It has the ingredients to get stickage and iffy surface temps. Thanks, Bob. my main concern was fighting something in the column as well as surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wundermap has a heck of a lot of snow for everyone at 6Z Thurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can't someone just post a precip map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 would that be the same with central moco and on north? one of the storms i'm thinking of was probably more rain in dc and then rockville (derwood, specifically) cashed in (this was back in early 90s maybe). i think they got about 5" whereas dc was like an inch. Yeah, this isn't a setup for ice. It's snow or rain predominantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The eurowx snow maps have been super conservative, does anyone know what type of algorithm they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can't someone just post a precip map? We are like .75-.8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks, Bob. my main concern was fighting something in the column as well as surface temps The absolute key for closer in folks like us is to have it rip hot and heavy on the flip. I think the euro is depicting just that for the cities. Lay down some wet snow as soon as possible so when it tapers it can still stick (or at least replenish.lol). With upper 30's, it will certainly take 1"/hr stuff to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can't someone just post a precip map? http://imgur.com/h6sdLaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the Nov 11 1987 storm...it was daytime storm...heavy snow....i dont remember the temps but there was 6-11 inches of snow. How is this one different? warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the Nov 11 1987 storm...it was daytime storm...heavy snow....i dont remember the temps but there was 6-11 inches of snow. How is this one different? warmer? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/111121.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Quick and dirty, this is what I have in terms of QPF for DC...people can extrapolate from there...If we toss the outliers, around 0.8" which seems reasonable at this time.... 12z NAM: 0.65" 12z Hi-Res NAM - 1.2" 9z SREF: 1.2" 12z Euro: 1.0" 12z GFS: 0.5" 12z PARA: 0.7" 12z Canadian: 0.8" 12z GEFS: 0.7" 12 Canadian ENS: 0.8" Seems quite reasonable. Let's just assume half of that falls as frozen in DC and lets say half of the frozen sticks with bad ratios. We can get our 1-2 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the Nov 11 1987 storm...it was daytime storm...heavy snow....i dont remember the temps but there was 6-11 inches of snow. How is this one different? warmer? That one had surface temps in the upper 20's to near 30/31 in the cities/DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Quick and dirty, this is what I have in terms of QPF for DC...people can extrapolate from there...If we toss the outliers, around 0.8" which seems reasonable at this time.... 12z NAM: 0.65" 12z Hi-Res NAM - 1.2" 9z SREF: 1.2" 12z Euro: 1.0" 12z GFS: 0.5" 12z PARA: 0.7" 12z Canadian: 0.8" 12z GEFS: 0.7" 12 Canadian ENS: 0.8" I can't complain with that kind of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I actually thought they were fairly reasonable. The eurowx snow maps have been super conservative, does anyone know what type of algorithm they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like my map from earlier right now at least for our area (I could be way off somewhere else on the map). I got to stay conservative because we won't really know who gets what until it happens. But also the media/TWC have to be careful at what they are looking at. What I mean is that News Outlets and TWC sometimes have the ability to show the models. Now let's say all of the 12z runs tomorrow still show a track near the BM, but all of a sudden they all show the Mid Atlantic (MD/NoVa) getting sort of "dry slotted", and therefore show little to no snow, then the news outlets would say (I'm going to use Marty Bass for example), "The XX model shows Light Rain Wednesday, the XY model shows Light Rain with temps dropping, but precip already ends". So the public will think that this is a Rainstorm with nothing to worry about....well guess what? It could always turn out that storm was about 30 miles east of the 12z suite and MD gets in the heavy precip, hence ending up with 2-4" of snow. We should watch it but we generally can't control it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the Nov 11 1987 storm...it was daytime storm...heavy snow....i dont remember the temps but there was 6-11 inches of snow. How is this one different? warmer? that storm was like a freak of nature. very convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I see debates about which model snow map is the most/least useful everywhere. Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I really like 12/5/09 as an analog for immediate DC metro..Though I think this event might be slightly wetter for immediate DC metro...I can't really speak for York Springs or Westminster or the Philly burbs http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20091205 (scroll down) http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2009/12/5/DailyHistory.html (scroll down) http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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