needbiggerboat Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This season leading up to now has shown some elements of 86-87 which was the winter it snowed absolutley every single time it could. Hoping this event can start up that pattern, I am already confident about the cold as we progress into Dec. You have wifi in the depths of your lower level abode? And which century are you referring to relative to 86-87? The guidance is mixed about cold or warm for Dec, but I would agree that having cold set in already this early is a positive variable for those that like snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM is fast with the rain..starts like 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Rain knocking on DCA's door by 2am on 18z NAM... a bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Beat me to it. But only for the colder counties right now apparently. I hate seeing a watch up for Harford, because I know it's not really for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Check out the sim Radar on the NAM at 9Z 11/26...Nam is juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 IAD snow sounding at 12z... but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DCA prob snow 13-14z.... rakage commences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is definity wetter..looks a bit warm at the sfc though, early on at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You can see gravity waves in the 850mb and 700 mb height maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like DCA flips around 14z. Razor thin margin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 warm and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In any heavy precip, I don't see how it could not snow with those temps. Yeah verbatim, that would be snow and would accumulate if heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 warm and wetYes, but more snow than 12z for sure. A solution closer to Euro/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes, but more snow than 12z for sure. A solution closer to Euro/UKMET for me it is awful...might be ok for others...looks like most of the precip beats the cold air....I doubt I would see more than a sloppy inch from that NAM run...I'm almost officially uninterested in this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 for me it is awful...might be ok for others...looks like most of the precip beats the cold air....I doubt I would see more than a sloppy inch from that NAM run...I'm almost officially uninterested in this event Don't we just toss the NAM anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In any heavy precip, I don't see how it could not snow with those temps. Agreed. It'd be a paste. (discussing 12z Euro not 18z NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Don't we just toss the NAM anyways? none of the models are good for me...there is unanimity that this event will suck in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the nam is awful who cares what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 for me it is awful...might be ok for others...looks like most of the precip beats the cold air....I doubt I would see more than a sloppy inch from that NAM run...I'm almost officially uninterested in this event Good, lets get uninterested due to a 18Z NAM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/536981176867880960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM apparently sucks with snowstorms....I disagree, but I haven't looked at the latest runs yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM apparently sucks with snowstorms....I disagree, but I haven't looked at the latest runs yet. The NAM sucks with most things especially continuity and reasonableness outside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 none of the models are good for me...there is unanimity that this event will suck in my backyard. I'm pretty sure it's going to suck within 20 miles west/NW of I-95 all the way to the Bay. I'm still hoping for an inch though. I should add that any snow in Nov. doesn't suck. But, compared to what it could've been, it sucks lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/536981176867880960 SREF = lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So much disrepancy between NWS sterling and WPC. While Sterling has >1" for me, WPC has 70-80% chance of 2 inches or more? Can't there be some consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF = lolzYou should tell that to the nws warning coordinator who posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm pretty sure it's going to suck within 20 miles west/NW of I-95 all the way to the Bay. I'm still hoping for an inch though. I should add that any snow in Nov. doesn't suck. But, compared to what it could've been, it sucks lol... Yeah I think a sloppy 1-3 is in play for the DC metro still, which would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm feeling this is going to be one of those storms where I don't know if I should throw myself in with the close in crowd of no hope crappy grass accumulations, or stick with the western burb crowd.. Western fairfaxs county is like it's own thing.. Anyways it still seems like start times are all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You should tell that to the nws warning coordinator who posted it. Haha exactly what I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Beat me to it. But only for the colder counties right now apparently. This is one of those situations where the higher precision watches and warnings for NW of the cities that goes live on 03 Dec would be useful. No way the City of Frederick (in a WSW right now) gets more than Parr's Ridge (not in a WSW or Advisory). It'll be good to see that kick on next month. Boy, this thing is indeed coming in like a bowling ball in the latest runs. I sure hope the precip is not outrunning the meager cold coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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