Shane M.

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About Shane M.

  • Birthday 02/25/1992

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  1. My sister who lives in Salisbury said they got about 2 inches last night. Take that with a grain of salt though because she didnt actually measure
  2. went on a walk to the liquor store in woodley park, dusting here coming down pretty good
  3. Following up on what Ian and Bob just said: Looking at the 12z guidance, it really is all about the orientation of the trough and the timing/location of the upper level energy. The Canadian/European model were fairly similar in holding back the upper level low in the Plains, which caused the orientation of the trough to be more positive. This causes the surface low to get its act together a little later, and therefore be a slightly weaker storm, further to the south with later strengthening compared to the GFS. the GFS shows the upper level energy rounding the trough quicker, with the trough going more neutral or even negative. This allows for our disturbance to strengthen more rapidly and give us that 12z result. Look below at the images, because the difference between the Canadian/Euro and GFS is pretty notable. 12z Euro 12z Canadian 12z GFS
  4. Yeah, definitely heaviest so far here in Gaithersburg
  5. Pretty amazing looking at the inner core of convection develop over the past few hours
  6. It's on the edge of stronger shear to the north and weaker to the south, so in this case it isn't necessarily hurting it... Definitely was very surprised to see it strengthen so much in such a short period of time!
  7. Yeah I usually look at it in addition to other tracks to try to find some sort of consensus in a track or a risk to the track. I never have looked at it on its own
  8. I'm in East Falls Church in Arlington and that sounds about right to me. It's definitely difficult to measure at this point
  9. Haha it is comical. Luckily you can see banding over the upper Chesapeake bay which is very good news for those in DC
  10. Hahaha well..... i'm afraid to answer the question
  11. I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations
  12. Yeah compared to the 18z quite a substantial shift although still off of the coast