Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mark map http://madusweather.com/2014/11/winter-storm-threat-november-26-initial-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Heh, sorry about that... forgot that I blocked hyperlinking to my site last spring. I could see it since I have it cached, but no one else could Fixed the original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's my first go at it: 20141126_MAsnow_initial.png Nice map, Mark. Nearly identical to my thoughts FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 most systems have a way they can trend colder or warmer I'm not seeing a way with reasonable odds that could make this colder, but I can see plenty of ways for it to keep getting warmer that pretty much is what's bugging me with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's my first go at it: 20141126_MAsnow_initial.png Nice map. I would be happy with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Heh, sorry about that... forgot that I blocked hyperlinking to my site last spring. I could see it since I have it cached, but no one else could Fixed the original post. Well done! Pretty much what I was thinking. I'll take my 2-4 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's my first go at it: 20141126_MAsnow_initial.png I like it. Pretty much what I'm thinking as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 First call. Story and more maps: http://www.hwpcwx.com/#!story1/com4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ellinwood 's map looks just like what I'm expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ellinwood's map looks pretty good....happy if we can hit 4" here in the FDK valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 First call. Story and more maps: http://www.hwpcwx.com/#!story1/com4 Just a suggestion, but I can't really see what zone (2-4" or 1-2") my home is in with the large "Washington D.C." heading. You might want to make the headings more transparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm sorta surprise that a lot of forecasts are kinda bearish. We should do snow more often in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just a suggestion, but I can't really see what zone (2-4" or 1-2") my home is in with the large "Washington D.C." heading. You might want to make the headings more transparent. Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Better? Much. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm sorta surprise that a lot of forecasts are kinda bearish. We should do snow more often in Nov. It makes me root for the heaviest banding to set up over DCA. A 6 hr period of 1"/hr without lulls would easily stick @ 35*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It makes me root for the heaviest banding to set up over DCA. A 6 hr period of 1"/hr without lulls would easily stick @ 35*. Looking good. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Threw this together. Amounts may be a tad overdone in the 6-10" zone. Maybe I should have done 6-8" or something. Also, it should be pretty clear that if you are in 3-6" and right next to I-95 you will get 3-4", not 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It makes me root for the heaviest banding to set up over DCA. A 6 hr period of 1"/hr without lulls would easily stick @ 35*. It's part weenie but I would still hedge toward reaching potential given how things have played out the last yr or so. Issue for us of course is we need so much neg departure just to get there. If we are snow and it goes heavy we'll probably cool to near freezing.. perhaps just above. I do agree with mitch it's easier to see things go warm than much colder but that's almost always the case here. I think if anything we should see things deamp/shift east a smidge which wouldn't be terrible for us at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 TWC seems to have escaped the need to go low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 TWC seems to have escaped the need to go low foot plus in nnj? Okay then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's part weenie but I would still hedge toward reaching potential given how things have played out the last yr or so. Issue for us of course is we need so much neg departure just to get there. If we are snow and it goes heavy we'll probably cool to near freezing.. perhaps just above. I do agree with mitch it's easier to see things go warm than much colder but that's almost always the case here. I think if anything we should see things deamp/shift east a smidge which wouldn't be terrible for us at this stage. Exact details are tricky with moisture laden systems. After re-reading the 2/12-13 threads it was pretty funny as to how our disco is going now. There's always a problem here. Pure white smoke on frozen ground can happen but almost never on the margins of the season (except for last March, that was pretty nuts). If we go back through every flawed event thread the common theme is always rates to overcome some sort of warmth between surface and 850's. At least we appear to have 925's on our side. That can only help cool things IF heavy precip comes in. Another common theme with miller A's is if the euro is steady @ 2-3 days, don't let other jumpy guidance cloud your thinking. Only rely on the GFS if it locked into something first. And it does sometimes. When it doesn't it plays catchup almost every time. I'm preaching to the choir with you of course but sometimes I think all the noise causes way more problems than the output is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Maue added these (NWS forecasts) to WxBell... handy. Surprisingly not too messed up on a lot of CWA boundaries too. I miss NW CT a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to look a bit like the March 5-6, 2013 event. BL is too marginal and fighting warmer ground although sun angle more favorable now. Snow accumulation gradient will likely be very tight with solid accumulation over higher elevations only. Min and Max potentials are very wide due to the rain/snow line uncertainty. It is tough to pick up good accumulations in lower elevations when the pre-conditions are not favorable...is relying on Dynamic and wet bulb cooling, rates etc. it's a more progressive system as well. Likely to see steadiest precip in one big blast over a 6 hour period or so. I wouldn't get excited about this one unless you are along the mason Dixon line or west of the Blue Ridge. I think all areas will change to snow but stickage will be tough within the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm loving all the snow maps and jackpot zones over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 WeatherNation seems to be out on a limb, or based in Colorado. http://news.weathernationtv.com/2014/11/24/huge-storm-impact-east-coast-likely-cause-huge-thanksgiving-travel-headaches/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Maue added these (NWS forecasts) to WxBell... handy. Surprisingly not too messed up on a lot of CWA boundaries too. I miss NW CT a little. Pretty much what I had in mind. 2-4 for most of western MD with more possible above 800ft. Maybe bring the 1-3 down to Bethesda and NW DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to look a bit like the March 5-6, 2013 event. BL is too marginal and fighting warmer ground although sun angle more favorable now. Snow accumulation gradient will likely be very tight with solid accumulation over higher elevations only. Min and Max potentials are very wide due to the rain/snow line uncertainty. It is tough to pick up good accumulations in lower elevations when the pre-conditions are not favorable...is relying on Dynamic and wet bulb cooling, rates etc. it's a more progressive system as well. Likely to see steadiest precip in one big blast over a 6 hour period or so. I wouldn't get excited about this one unless you are along the mason Dixon line or west of the Blue Ridge. I think all areas will change to snow but stickage will be tough within the Beltway. I mostly agree about the flaws but I don't think Mar 5-6 is a good comparison. We minimized potential in just about every way. It simply went wrong for us. The closed ULL behaved in a way that nobody expected. Not the same setup this time. If the precip is a bumrush and hits hard for 6 hours, there's definite upside here. Even with the flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to look a bit like the March 5-6, 2013 event. BL is too marginal and fighting warmer ground although sun angle more favorable now. Snow accumulation gradient will likely be very tight with solid accumulation over higher elevations only. Min and Max potentials are very wide due to the rain/snow line uncertainty. It is tough to pick up good accumulations in lower elevations when the pre-conditions are not favorable...is relying on Dynamic and wet bulb cooling, rates etc. it's a more progressive system as well. Likely to see steadiest precip in one big blast over a 6 hour period or so. I wouldn't get excited about this one unless you are along the mason Dixon line or west of the Blue Ridge. I think all areas will change to snow but stickage will be tough within the Beltway. This is the one time I'm hoping things line up right. Watching chaos unfold on the roads would he be pure bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It may not be the exact setup as March 2013 but I think the result will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Excuse the dumb weenie question, but is high-end scenario Jan 26th, 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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