Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Judging by euro 0C 950mb temps, looks like around 1am snow for TOL-ORH. Probably not until 4-5am for ern areas. Ryan's station has it starting in Ct between 8-midnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Ryan's station has it starting in Ct between 8-midnite Yeah, but it's too warm at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Some will start as rain until it cools enough to flip to snow, The question is how soon that will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 BOX is all snow for the hinterlands, just not moisture, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah, but it's too warm at that time. He's got it starting as snow..except mix closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 He's got it starting as snow..except mix closer to coast I hope its later with a Euro timing, better column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 He's got it starting as snow..except mix closer to coast With 950 temps of over +1C? That may be hard. It's going to start earlier to your west..maybe after like 10-11 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 It doesn't matter really anyway whether it starts as mangled flakes or not. What happens after 1-2am is what is relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Im still thinking under an inch here but I guess it could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Just taking a look at at the RGEM and that had a general 1-2" event for most, even down to the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It seems, based on the discussion and morning news, that there may be anywhere between a dusting and 3" of snow somewhere/everywhere between 95 and 495, west of Boston. A dusting usually results in wet roads after a warm stretch like we've had, but 3" is another thing altogether. How is it that the only warning is that the roads might be slippery tomorrow morning? Is there something the models are showing that suggest that there will be no need for plows or salting? What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 With 950 temps of over +1C? That may be hard. It's going to start earlier to your west..maybe after like 10-11 for you. GFS is warm of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 AN AREA OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THEHIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN ME. LIFT ANDMOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCEDSNOWFALL RATES FOR A BRIEF TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR CTINTO CENTRAL MA...WHERE 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FURTHEREAST...THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COOLING ASTHE BEST LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SO ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO THECENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE MORE PROBLEMATIC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS is warm of course The euro is pretty mild until after like 4z or so. At least at 950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 In any case, it seems the meat of the action comes in when it gets cold enough anyways so it doesn't really matter I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 give credit where is due, Kevin was one of the first to mention good chance of 1+ .. Sent from my iPhone You are correct I believe, and Congrats to DIT/Kevin on thinking that there could be an Inch plus for the area. :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z NAM looks pretty good for the SE MA area over into CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 NAM is pretty cold. Probably would be a mix to start even in the higher spots. I don't completely buy the warm GFS. Euro looked in between and seems reasonable to me. Of course, intensity will be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 NAM is pretty cold. Probably would be a mix to start even in the higher spots. I don't completely buy the warm GFS. Euro looked in between and seems reasonable to me. Of course, intensity will be a factor. Hopefully MPM does not look at the Qpf distribution .................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 As has already been mentioned. The real wild card is when places seeing the most precip change over. Its actually the difference as Will said between 1" and possibly 3-4", which could actually lead to a pretty high impact commute in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Just looking quickly at the NAM...wetbulb zero heights are around 975mb at 06z...so thats going to be snow pretty much anywhere except right on the shore as soon as precip gets steady. If it's really light, it might be a few drops of rain, but that will go to snow as soon as any type of intensity above extremely light occurs. This is for areas from BOS to ORH...further south, the WBZ heights are more like 940-950mb, so that will probably take a little longer to cool down to the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Mid coast gets a little more as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Mid coast gets a little more as modeled Ok, we bang now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Ok, we bang now I see how you are....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Looks like the RGEM got a little juiced again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Looks like the RGEM got a little juiced again. Those blk/wht maps are tough, Looked like 5 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Those blk/wht maps are tough, Looked like 5 mm Yeah PITA, but just a rough guess from the 6z run to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The frame or two before and after look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 An area of 10mm from SE MA almost to BOS on RGEM...just E of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.