JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 General public doesn't really understand probability when it comes to meteorology. They don't understand probability when the outcome stated to be the "likely outcome" is given a 13% chance of occurring vs. other outcomes of 30% and 38%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Tolland already cancelled school and 3 tractor trailers just jackknifed on 84. Yes but have they pre-sanded yet? IMO early starts to a season are epic. Some years we wait until January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Time stamps would be really nice on those maps. I do like the idea though. I agree, that's the first thing I noticed as I would always check them to see when they last updated it and compare it to the latest model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Time stamps would be really nice on those maps. I do like the idea though. The problem I envision is the 90th percentile maps are going to go viral really fast on social media with absolutely no explanation of what it means. Many media organizations will rip 'em off too I bet with "The NWS says this much snow could fall!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The problem I envision is the 90th percentile maps are going to go viral really fast on social media with absolutely no explanation of what it means. Many media organizations will rip 'em off too I bet with "The NWS says this much snow could fall!!!!" Or "there's a 90% chance that we will get this much snow" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 So your saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The problem I envision is the 90th percentile maps are going to go viral really fast on social media with absolutely no explanation of what it means. Many media organizations will rip 'em off too I bet with "The NWS says this much snow could fall!!!!" You could very easily miss the 90th percentile tag or cover it up completely if you rip it off. I would have a large MAXIMUM SNOWFALL banner plastered all over that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 The problem I envision is the 90th percentile maps are going to go viral really fast on social media with absolutely no explanation of what it means. Many media organizations will rip 'em off too I bet with "The NWS says this much snow could fall!!!!" One reason why ranges are probably the best for the public...but even with ranges, everyone seems to always take the highest number....i.e. 6-12" means a foot will fall and you get crap if 6.5" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yes but have they pre-sanded yet? IMO early starts to a season are epic. Some years we wait until January Messengers new name. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 One reason why ranges are probably the best for the public...but even with ranges, everyone seems to always take the highest number....i.e. 6-12" means a foot will fall and you get crap if 6.5" falls. 6-12 is a pretty big range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 6-12 is a pretty big range Start high and adjust higher if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Rad presentation certainly depicts snow as this band approaches SW zones and eastern NY. Question is ... how well do we WB these lower partial thickness'. It's 45/20 here, and figure giving the sounding, the WB favors perhaps the lower end or perhaps right on 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Messengers new name. I agree.snow Sat? Flight delays out of DEN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I like the obs in PA. Quickly changing from rain to snow even in lower elevation places around Lancaster and just outside of ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Start high and adjust higher if necessary. The weenie rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Boxes wwa boundaries make no sense, Northern Windham should be in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Around here we call the 90th percentile "lollies" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 6-12 is a pretty big range But a fairly standard range and widely used for those 0.5-1.0" QPF events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 wow, solid 10 to 15F colder west of Orange/HFD line... HPC doesn't analyze a boundary, but that an impressive drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I like the obs in PA. Quickly changing from rain to snow even in lower elevation places around Lancaster and just outside of ABE. We're cooling nicely already up here, before precip even starts. It may be a very brief period of RASN before a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Around here we call the 90th percentile "lollies" That's great. If only we could explain that to the public the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Started as straight flakes up here, lol. Huge fluffy flakes but flurries to borderline -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Around here we call the 90th percentile "lollies" I was just going to add to start high then go higher, But then the lollies have to be added which usually takes it up and additional 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 I like the obs in PA. Quickly changing from rain to snow even in lower elevation places around Lancaster and just outside of ABE. Yeah noticed that...the lower atmosphere has a lot of room to wetbulb. Looking at the rap soundings for this hour, you can see how much room their is to cool in the 900mb down to the surface level. BDL for example: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 So box has Woodstock in the 2-4 not in WWA, next town over in Mass same but in WWA, yep and you wonder why people dont understand, I mean just follow your snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 So box has Woodstock in the 2-4 not in WWA, next town over in Mass same but in WWA, yep and you wonder why people dont understand They also have all of Hartford County at over 60% odds 1"+, but have most of the county forecast at <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 No interior southeast ma in advisory? Or NE Conn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I mean, they literally have BDL at 77% for >"1, 46% for >"2, and a forecast of <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 And their odds >0.1" map is dated 11/16 - 11/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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