HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The timing could warrant an advisory for some peeps anyhow. First or second snowfall...commuting time. Fun fun fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 QPF queens don't read on: You can also see how the farther NW of BOS you get how some sneaky dry air aloft could disrupt precip generation, as lift gets into the drier layer. Something I'm noticing towards our foothills zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 QPF queens don't read on: You can also see how the farther NW of BOS you get how some sneaky dry air aloft could disrupt precip generation, as lift gets into the drier layer. Something I'm noticing towards our foothills zones. Dry begets weenie suicides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Dry begets weenie suicides November being November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The weenie rule is to start high and you can adjust higher if need be lol. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I don't think I'll get much accumulation in this area. Probably about a coating. The best lift being displaced to the south, coupled with potential BL issues this low in elevation and close to the coast spell wait until December for the most part. I think you are being a bit pessimistic, BL issues aren't that much of a concern as long as there is steady precip. imo C-1" is realistic, maybe 2" in this area if everything breaks right. You are right about the best lift / dynamics being a little further S / SE, which def limits the 'upside' potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 That's a nice 4 panel weenie prog, Chris. I like these little mid level fun bags. Anytime you pack the thermal gradient..you can get some fun. Pack it in, and let the atmosphere do its thing trying to get back to thermal balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 QPF queens don't read on: You can also see how the farther NW of BOS you get how some sneaky dry air aloft could disrupt precip generation, as lift gets into the drier layer. Something I'm noticing towards our foothills zones. That area of low EPV (<0.25 PVU) seems to match up well with the MAUL that's showing up on some of the models near the DGZ. Interesting to see if that actually materializes. I'm noticing a pretty good omega burst in the DGZ in NE CT/N RI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 QPF queens don't read on: You can also see how the farther NW of BOS you get how some sneaky dry air aloft could disrupt precip generation, as lift gets into the drier layer. Something I'm noticing towards our foothills zones. I've already assumed this, as stated earlier. I expect a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I think you are being a bit pessimistic, BL issues aren't that much of a concern as long as there is steady precip. imo C-1" is realistic, maybe 2" in this area if everything breaks right. You are right about the best lift / dynamics being a little further S / SE, which def limits the 'upside' potential. Yea, coating to an inch is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 QPF queens don't read on: You can also see how the farther NW of BOS you get how some sneaky dry air aloft could disrupt precip generation, as lift gets into the drier layer. Something I'm noticing towards our foothills zones. Yeah thats a good point. That's a great cross section though...you can see all the variables lining up for a potential surprise. I may have to give Megan a heads up that don't be shocked if Walpole has a delay tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm so excited . The first sig snow of the year always is magical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I remember a season or two ago, ...the NAM and Euro were cold for an event that turned to be rain and the GFS won... Just looking at the straight FRH grid for BOS, those intervals are snow all the way... I think it was +2, -1, -2 C at 1000, 900, and 800mb sigmas. That +2 is really meaningless if they really get .43 (12z NAM) or over .5 (06z NAM) liq equiv -- it's biggish aggregates at 35 at Logan? No problem snowing in the eastern ORH hills and interior sections. 'Course, ...there are tools that have more discrete partial thickness analysis, too... Narrow ANA thingy though. Notice ALB didn't get the memo - ha I want to say that was last season sometime in March with an anafront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah thats a good point. That's a great cross section though...you can see all the variables lining up for a potential surprise. I may have to give Megan a heads up that don't be shocked if Walpole has a delay tomorrow morning. It's a really interesting event. Just looking at my isentropic plots, the winds are really paralleling the pressure contours. Obviously, you would want sloped ascent up the pressure contours. So this almost appears to be forced from development of mid level centers rather than WAA. There is a lot of room to bust both ways, as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's a really interesting event. Just looking at my isentropic plots, the winds are really paralleling the pressure contours. Obviously, you would want sloped ascent up the pressure contours. So this almost appears to be forced from development of mid level centers rather than WAA. There is a lot of room to bust both ways, as you said. Pack the thermal gradient baby. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pack the thermal gradient baby. LOL. That's pretty much it. Packing the isotherms through deepening, not WAA. Again that makes me skittish to push appreciable accumulations too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 EURO coming in stronger and further west through hour 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z Euro has a little more qpf further NW then 0z into the SE areas of Mass and along the Maine coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro is pretty darn wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro is pretty darn wet. About a quarter inch for BOS to PVD and southeast...pretty good for the stingy Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 About a quarter inch for BOS to PVD and southeast...pretty good for the stingy Euro. Looks like middle ground as far as 12z models go. The NAM and GFS looked a hair higher than than and the RGEM looked a hair less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 About a quarter inch for BOS to PVD and southeast...pretty good for the stingy Euro. Some of that will be wasted, but not bad to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The CAA definitely slows a bit near BOS and south. Some of that QPF will be wasted for sure. 950mb 0C line is just SE of BOS at 9z. if it's coming down good..that help flip it I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 2-4 should rule the roost in the elevated terrain east of CT River..maybe even to western burbs of BOS 1-2rest of CT and Western Mass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I like these late fall snow events. Has that springtime snow appeal today. Fading sun, temps "mild" enough now to wear a light jacket. Followed by wet snow tonight. Best part about this springtime appeal is that it's November 13 and not March 13. We still got a full winter ahead! Sorry for the weenie-ing out. Hoping for a slushy inch here. Maybe another foxboro jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 1-3" here back to the foothills, The higher end coast and coastal plain, Midcoast east to DE Maine, Could jack 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I like these late fall snow events. Has that springtime snow appeal today. Fading sun, temps "mild" enough now to wear a light jacket. Followed by wet snow tonight. Best part about this springtime appeal is that it's November 13 and not March 13. We still got a full winter ahead! Sorry for the weenie-ing out. Hoping for a slushy inch here. Maybe another foxboro jackpot? I was thinking the same thing...it's great that it's only November 13th instead of March 13th. Let's just hope there are many more where this came from, and we see this ones BIG BROTHER(S) sometime over the next 4 months???!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 1-3" here back to the foothills, The higher end coast and coastal plain, Midcoast east to DE Maine, Could jack 4-5" I believe I'll have the final say on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 2-4 should rule the roost in the elevated terrain east of CT River..maybe even to western burbs of BOS 1-2rest of CT and Western Mass.. I don't see a whole lot of support for >2" right now but it's not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I don't see a whole lot of support for >2" right now but it's not out of the question. BOX has it as about 1 in 3 which I think is a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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