Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Be making the second snowman of the season it looks like in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Be making the second snowman of the season it looks like in a few days.nice looks healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I would assume the ECM will have to juice up a bit after recent other model runs...didn't see that coming. Congrats guys on a nice season starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not a bad thing to wake up to at all. Overnight trends 2-3 for a lot of folks with a lolli or two to 4-5? Euro isn't quite as hung ho as everything else..but that seems to always be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not sure about the higher end, but a good 1-2 with maybe a spot 3 or so it seems. Someone in a narrow area may get lucky. Euro looked pretty good I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 sneaky over performer, #caughtwithpantsdown LOL Confidence I can get an inch or so has grown overnight. 31.9/25 off a low of 30.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Even I may be able to pull off an inch. #breakingthesubforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not sure about the higher end, but a good 1-2 with maybe a spot 3 or so it seems. Someone in a narrow area may get lucky. Euro looked pretty good I thought. Didn't it seem a bit less than RGEM/ARW/GFS/ UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Didn't it seem a bit less than RGEM/ARW/GFS/ UKIE? Well you are right that it is less, especially out by you. 6z GFS was juicy. 6z RGEM looks like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Noyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 BOX had a good disco and pretty much talked about what Will and I mentioned yesterday. STRONGEST FORCING FOCUSES REARWARD OF THE OFFSHORE WAVE LOW WHERE THE COLLOCATION OF DECENT H9-7 ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT UNDERGOES FRONTOGENTICAL /F-GEN/ LIFT THROUGH A WELL- SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. NOTING SOME NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY COLLOCATED WITH H6-8 F- GEN LIFT SIGNALING SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY SO IN ADDITION TO THE SLANTWISE ASCENT MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS /ALBEIT THINKING ISOLATED/ THAT MAY YIELD A GREATER INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. KEEPING ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF INGREDIENTS COMBINING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND... ESPECIALLY AREAS E/SE OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND CT-RIVER VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Noyes I love the sucker hole he drops on western Franklin County. Congrats, Bob. Perhaps BOX will issue a WWA for a couple zones even if it may not truly be warranted as a "first event" type heads-up. I recall them doing so with the first systems in the past even if they don't meet typical cirtieria as a 'hit over the head with a tire tube' reminder that it can be slippery. This would really be the appropriate "traveler's advisory" event the weather bureau would render when I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 BOX had a good disco and pretty much talked about what Will and I mentioned yesterday. STRONGEST FORCING FOCUSES REARWARD OF THE OFFSHORE WAVE LOW WHERE THE COLLOCATION OF DECENT H9-7 ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT UNDERGOES FRONTOGENTICAL /F-GEN/ LIFT THROUGH A WELL- SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. NOTING SOME NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY COLLOCATED WITH H6-8 F- GEN LIFT SIGNALING SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY SO IN ADDITION TO THE SLANTWISE ASCENT MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS /ALBEIT THINKING ISOLATED/ THAT MAY YIELD A GREATER INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. KEEPING ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF INGREDIENTS COMBINING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND... ESPECIALLY AREAS E/SE OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND CT-RIVER VALLEY. Sipprell a pretty good met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Sipprell a pretty good met I know it's probably going over the heads of most, but basically what it means is that minor instability aloft will yield a few SW-NE oriented heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Powderfreak's coveted BTV WRF is pretty wet out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Powderfreak's coveted BTV WRF is pretty wet out this way. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 link? http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Pretty good--especially if you can change-over quickly. Loving the flurries it's giving me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pretty good--especially if you can change-over quickly. Loving the flurries it's giving me. You'll get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pretty good--especially if you can change-over quickly. Loving the flurries it's giving me. And so it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Go back and look at my and others posts even to last weekend. We always thought this had potential give credit where is due, Kevin was one of the first to mention good chance of 1+ .. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 give credit where is due, Kevin was one of the first to mention good chance of 1+ .. Sent from my iPhone I do believe you're correct. We just need another push west in the final hours to help out here. #hotholdingmybreath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS..I bet Burrilville , RI ends up the winner out of this. They could sneak 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS is pretty warm for most until after 9z or so. NAM is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Too bad most will be sleeping through all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Judging by euro 0C 950mb temps, looks like around 1am snow for TOL-ORH. Probably not until 4-5am for ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hi yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 yo yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Some of the meso models are going to town a bit at the last second. Will have to watch for a pretty nice band or two in RI up through SE and E MA. Always tough to forecast...its how you could turn a coating to an inch into 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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