Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 18z GFS is pretty good...don't pay attention to the sfc temps on it. It's pretty cold at 900-950mb...easily snow even to the lower elevations except maybe right on the southeast coast. That would probably be a widespread coating to 2 inches. That is what Eric Fisher just posted hes concerned about an overachiever. Hope it happens, like I said before Fri/Sat will be fun with cold/winds and snow blowing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 18z GFS is pretty good...don't pay attention to the sfc temps on it. It's pretty cold at 900-950mb...easily snow even to the lower elevations except maybe right on the southeast coast. That would probably be a widespread coating to 2 inches. 18z RGEM looks good as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I would if temps stayed below freezing and no snow, my driveway slopes side to side, slippery as hell with a compacted inch. Temps in the mid 30s and sun so probably won't although dews in the low 20s probably wont promote much melting but Mondays wash will take care of that. It would have to be really cold for it to not melt on pavement in full sunlight in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 18z RGEM looks good as well Widespread 1-2" with some substantial pockets of 2-3" in there. Would be a nice little surprise for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It would have to be really cold for it to not melt on pavement in full sunlight in November. well i am on a hill that gets minimal sunlight in Nov Dec, hopefully we get a couple I am not shoveling just to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 well i am on a hill that gets minimal sunlight in Nov Dec, hopefully we get a couple I am not shoveling just to see. Well once we start getting into mid December, I am probably clearing off anything on my driveway too. But not on November 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Widespread 1-2" with some substantial pockets of 2-3" in there. Would be a nice little surprise for many. Pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well once we start getting into mid December, I am probably clearing off anything on my driveway too. But not on November 14th. Me either, It will be gone in a day or 2 max with the surface unfrozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Pretty solid weenie spot over JCs house, edit wait lol that is a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The RGEM map is a 48hr water eq. Remember that is in (mm) .25mm ~ =.10" with marginal temps. ???? just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well once we start getting into mid December, I am probably clearing off anything on my driveway too. But not on November 14th. Agree, unless it was a siggy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The RGEM map is a 48hr water eq. Remember that is in (mm) .25mm ~ =.10" with marginal temps. ???? just saying its a stubby kind of snowfall distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 its a stubby kind of snowfall distribution Looks like fido wagging his tail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 The RGEM map is a 48hr water eq. Remember that is in (mm) .25mm ~ =.10" with marginal temps. ???? just saying Well there's a lot of 5mm area...which would be more like 0.20" of qpf...so I think a C-2" forecast at the moment isn't terrible. I'd probably stress more C-1" for now until we get closer and that last minute "Blow up" that a lot of guidance is trying to show trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Right now I would go: C-1 valley 1-2 above 500 feet with ISO 3 Nothing within 10 miles of any coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Right now I would go: C-1 valley 1-2 above 500 feet with ISO 3 Nothing within 10 miles of any coast you might be too far west for the good stuff, east of the Mount winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Right now I would go: C-1 valley 1-2 above 500 feet with ISO 3 Nothing within 10 miles of any coast That would probably be an awful forecast in SE MA where some of those towns that have 200-300 feet are within 10 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 My one and only call: Burlington/Woburn: 1" South a bit more.. north a bit less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 you might be too far west for the good stuff, east of the Mount winter.Think Central Hills look like best area. Actually hills NW of HFD over to ORh hills look best. Too Far East is going to have trouble if it's not heavy even at 300 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The RGEM map is a 48hr water eq. Remember that is in (mm) .25mm ~ =.10" with marginal temps. ???? just saying Should have pointed out that that map is QPF that falls as snow according to the meteocentre algorithms, which are much better than the Wxbell ones. Most of SNE is 2.5-5mm so .1-.2" as snow or ~1-2" and parts are 5-7.5mm so 2-3" snow. Here is total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Right now I would go: C-1 valley 1-2 above 500 feet with ISO 3 Nothing within 10 miles of any coast it will snow to the coast in areas with some of these model looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Winds are NW. Marine taint isn't an issue. Lower elevations maybe, but even here the GFS is like C-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Pretty good after this looking like an ORH county trash can topper yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 weenie spot over JCs house, edit wait lol that is a weenie It's picking up on the orographics of my . That's actually a bit southwest of me, but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Pretty good after this looking like an ORH county trash can topper yesterday morning.It always looked like snow for many. Even when the euro went dry.. We knew that wasn't likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It always looked like snow for many. Even when the euro went dry.. We knew that wasn't likely False. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Looks like east is best in this setup. If temps cooperate they are going to see the most precip. Could be some surprises Taunton Bridgewater Easton areas. And then foxboro looks great in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Congrats me! Premature fist pumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Just a couple of comments. Sun angle on Nov 14 is pretty darn low. We are only 5 weeks away from solstice. So it would be about the same sun angle as Feb 1. I seem to remember that the sun will really start eating at snowbanks by mid Feb so I don't think sun angle will be a big deal. The other thing that I find over rated is warm soil temperatures. At marginal temps snow is going to have a hard time sticking to asphalt etc. but I find even in 1 mile type light snow it will stick very quickly to things not right on the surface like blades of grass and items that cool down quick like metal. Up here in the foothills even after a string of 50F days if we get a good snow shower it will stick quick. As soon as it lets up the snow will melt from the bottom up if the soil is really warm. Anyhow just some misc musings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 False. Exactly. False. There was always the chance this could "juice" up a bit and it appears to be doing just that. We've had light snow/flurries in the forecast for Friday morning now for 6 days. Pretty incredible considering what a POS system this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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